Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Ohio Valley GU12 (2014-2015) · 6 teams · Cincinnati Elite FC (all teams)

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5th

0-1-5 record · 6 played

0.17 points per game

-38 goal diff · 2–40

LDLLLlast 5

0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.4

+1.65 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 03:30 PM

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Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2
5th · 0.17 PPG

Indy Eleven Pre- II
2nd · 3.00 PPG

Home of The Brave - HOB, HOB - Field #3 ↗

0% 98%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–6 (expected goals 0.8 for, 6.9 against · 0.02 expected points)

Season so far	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2	Indy Eleven Pre- II
Position	5th	2nd
Record (W-D-L)	0-1-5	3-0-0
Points per game	0.17	3.00
Goals for / game	0.3	6.0
Goals against / game	6.7	0.0
Clean sheets	0	3
Held scoreless	5	0
Form (recent first)	L L L D L	W W W
Biggest win	—	8–0 vs FC Storm Premier 2
Worst loss	0–10 at Mercury Pre- North	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-3.68	+2.46
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+1.65	-2.54

Common opponents: FC Storm Premier 2 — we 2–2, 0–4; they 8–0.

Game plan

Respect their attack
Indy Eleven Pre- II score 6.0/game — well above the league's 2.8.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Hard to break down
Indy Eleven Pre- II concede only 0.0/game with 3 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 5 time(s): 0–9 vs Mercury Pre- North, 0–5 vs Columbus Force Pre- 2, 0–10 at Mercury Pre- North, 0–10 at Columbus Force Pre- 2, 0–4 at FC Storm Premier 2.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 0%; a draw (1%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
They arrive in form
Indy Eleven Pre- II have won 3 straight.
Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Indy Eleven Pre- II game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 – Indy Eleven Pre- II) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 0.14 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	5th— holds
Win 0.57 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	5th— holds
Draw 0.29 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	5th— holds
Loss 0.14 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	5th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–6 loss we stay 5th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

0% top 4

100% below the top 4

5.4 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd
4th <1%
5th 55%
6th 45%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 1.30 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Mercury Pre- North	3.00 (+2.83)	1st (2.64)	29 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Indy Eleven Pre- II	3.00 (+2.83)	3rd (2.19)	29 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	Columbus Force Pre- 2	2.50 (+2.33)	2nd (2.23)	24 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4	FC Storm Premier 2	1.17 (+1.00)	4th (0.98)	11 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection

How the results connect

26 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 to Indy Eleven Pre- II through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us

25 favour them

-7.5 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.37 · 5th hardest of 6

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 03:30 PM	Indy Eleven Pre- II 2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +18	Home Home of The Brave - HOB	●●●●● Very tough	0%	0–6	0.02	0.15	Upside
Sat Nov 7 01:00 PM	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 6th · 0-0-7 · GD -38	Away far trip Lawrence Soccer Complex	●●●●○ Tough	35%	1–2	1.26	0.29	Upside
Sat Nov 7 10:30 AM	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 6th · 0-0-7 · GD -38	Away far trip Lawrence Soccer Complex	●●●●○ Tough	35%	1–2	1.26	0.39	Upside
Sat Nov 14 12:00 PM	Indy Eleven Pre- II 2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +18	Away far trip Grand Park	●●●●● Very tough	0%	0–7	0.01	0.36	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Mercury Pre- North

+35

3.00

WWWWW

-1.98

+1.70

100%

1.3

W	Tue Oct 6	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 (5th)	10–0
W	Tue Sep 15	at	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 5	at	Columbus Force Pre- 2 (3rd)	2–1
W	Fri Sep 4	at	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 (5th)	9–0
W	Sat Aug 15	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (6th)	5–0
W	Sat Aug 15	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (6th)	7–0

Next: Mon Jan 1 vs Indy Eleven Pre- II · Sat Oct 24 vs Columbus Force Pre- 2 · Sun Oct 25 vs FC Storm Premier 2 See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	vs	Indy Eleven Pre- II (2nd)	2–1	61%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Columbus Force Pre- 2 (3rd)	2–1	52%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	5–0	97%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Indy Eleven Pre- II (2nd)	2–1	50%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Indy Eleven Pre- II

+18

3.00

WWW

-2.54

+0.61

100%

2.4

W	Thu Oct 22	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (6th)	7–0
W	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	8–0
W	Tue Sep 15	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (6th)	3–0

Next: Mon Jan 1 at Mercury Pre- North · Sat Oct 24 at Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 · Sun Oct 25 at Columbus Force Pre- 2 See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	at	Mercury Pre- North (1st)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 (5th)	6–0	98%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Columbus Force Pre- 2 (3rd)	2–2	27%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	4–1	89%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Columbus Force Pre- 2 (3rd)	2–2	37%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Mercury Pre- North (1st)	1–2	31%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 (5th)	7–0	99%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Columbus Force Pre- 2

+35

2.50

WLWWW

-2.04

+1.72

100%

2.2

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 (5th)	10–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 (5th)	5–0
W	Sun Sep 6	vs	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	9–0
L	Sat Sep 5	vs	Mercury Pre- North (1st)	1–2
W	Sat Aug 29	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (6th)	6–1
W	Sat Aug 29	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (6th)	7–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Storm Premier 2 · Sat Oct 24 at Mercury Pre- North · Sun Oct 25 vs Indy Eleven Pre- II See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	5–1	93%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Mercury Pre- North (1st)	1–2	30%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Indy Eleven Pre- II (2nd)	2–2	56%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Indy Eleven Pre- II (2nd)	2–2	45%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Storm Premier 2

-12

1.17

LDWLW

-0.44

+1.43

99%

4.0

W	Tue Oct 20	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 (5th)	4–0
L	Sun Oct 18	at	Indy Eleven Pre- II (2nd)	0–8
W	Sun Oct 18	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (6th)	4–0
D	Tue Sep 22	at	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 (5th)	2–2
L	Tue Sep 15	vs	Mercury Pre- North (1st)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 6	at	Columbus Force Pre- 2 (3rd)	0–9

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Columbus Force Pre- 2 · Sun Oct 25 at Mercury Pre- North · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Columbus Force Pre- 2 (3rd)	1–5	3%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Mercury Pre- North (1st)	0–5	1%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (6th)	3–1	78%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Indy Eleven Pre- II (2nd)	1–4	5%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2

-38

0.17

LDLLL

+1.65

-0.37

5.4

L	Tue Oct 20	at	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	0–4
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Columbus Force Pre- 2 (3rd)	0–10
L	Tue Oct 6	at	Mercury Pre- North (1st)	0–10
D	Tue Sep 22	vs	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Columbus Force Pre- 2 (3rd)	0–5
L	Fri Sep 4	vs	Mercury Pre- North (1st)	0–9

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Indy Eleven Pre- II · Sat Nov 7 at FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 · Sat Nov 7 at FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Indy Eleven Pre- II (2nd)	0–6	0%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (6th)	1–2	35%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (6th)	1–2	35%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Indy Eleven Pre- II (2nd)	0–7	0%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Pride Elite Pre- 2

-38

0.00

LLLLL

+2.19

-2.89

5.5

L	Thu Oct 22	vs	Indy Eleven Pre- II (2nd)	0–7
L	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	0–4
L	Tue Sep 15	at	Indy Eleven Pre- II (2nd)	0–3
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Columbus Force Pre- 2 (3rd)	1–6
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Columbus Force Pre- 2 (3rd)	0–7
L	Sat Aug 15	vs	Mercury Pre- North (1st)	0–5
L	Sat Aug 15	vs	Mercury Pre- North (1st)	0–7

Next: Sat Oct 31 at FC Storm Premier 2 · Sat Nov 7 vs Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 · Sat Nov 7 vs Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	1–3	10%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 (5th)	2–1	44%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 2 (5th)	2–1	44%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.80 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.