WNY Flash Pre
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Ohio Valley GU11 (2015-2016) · 9 teams · WNY Flash Academy (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 03:30 PM
Montour Junction Sports Complex, Field 1A ↗
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–5 (expected goals 1.1 for, 5.2 against · 0.12 expected points)
| Season so far | WNY Flash Pre | GTFC Impact Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 9th | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-4 | 3-0-1 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 2.25 |
| Goals for / game | 0.5 | 4.5 |
| Goals against / game | 4.5 | 1.5 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L L | W L W W |
| Biggest win | — | 8–1 vs Ohio Premier Pre- Dublin |
| Worst loss | 0–6 at Ohio Premier Pre- Dublin | 0–3 vs Internationals SC Pre |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -2.25 | +1.66 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.12 | +0.17 |
Common opponents: Ohio Premier Pre- Dublin — we 0–6; they 8–1. Cleveland Force Pre- Blue — we 0–3; they 5–2. Internationals SC Pre — we 1–6; they 0–3.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
GTFC Impact Pre score 4.5/game — well above the league's 2.2.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–6 at Ohio Premier Pre- Dublin, 0–3 at Cleveland Force Pre- Blue.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 3%; a draw (4%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the GTFC Impact Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (WNY Flash Pre – GTFC Impact Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.00 PPG |
9th— holds | 9th— holds | 9th— holds |
| Win 0.60 PPG |
9th— holds | 9th— holds | 9th— holds |
| Draw 0.20 PPG |
9th— holds | 9th— holds | 9th— holds |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
9th— holds | 9th— holds | 9th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–5 loss we stay 9th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th 1%
- 8th 1%
- 9th 98%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 1.50 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre | 2.33 (+2.33) | 1st (2.32) | 19 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | GTFC Impact Pre | 2.25 (+2.25) | 2nd (2.25) | 18 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Internationals SC Pre | 1.88 (+1.88) | 3rd (1.88) | 16 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Cleveland Force Pre- Blue | 1.75 (+1.75) | 4th (1.75) | 14 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 5 | Kings Hammer SC Barcelona | 1.43 (+1.43) | 5th (1.56) | 12 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 6 | Ohio Premier Pre- Dublin | 1.13 (+1.13) | 6th (1.13) | 10 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection |
| 7 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre | 0.83 (+0.83) | 7th (1.00) | 7 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection |
| 8 | Cleveland Force Pre- White | 0.71 (+0.71) | 8th (0.65) | 6 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 6 for their projection |
How the results connect
16 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link WNY Flash Pre to GTFC Impact Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.67 · 2nd hardest of 6
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Jan 1 TBD no score posted |
Kings Hammer SC Barcelona 5th · 3-1-3 · GD -3 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
1–3 | 0.41 | 0.08 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 24 03:30 PM |
GTFC Impact Pre 2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +12 |
Home Montour Junction Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
1–5 | 0.12 | 0.09 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 24 06:30 PM |
Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre 1st · 4-2-0 · GD +15 |
Away far trip
Montour Junction Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
0–4 | 0.08 | 0.09 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 12:30 PM |
Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre 7th · 1-2-3 · GD -5 |
Away far trip
Montour Junction Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
1–3 | 0.45 | 0.13 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 5 | +15 | 14 | 2.33 | DWWWD | -0.17 | -0.29 | 100% | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs WNY Flash Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs GTFC Impact Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | GTFC Impact Pre | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 6 | +12 | 9 | 2.25 | WWLW | +0.17 | -0.60 | 99% | 1.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at WNY Flash Pre · Sat Oct 24 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Internationals SC Pre | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 17 | +4 | 15 | 1.88 | LWLWL | -0.06 | — | 100% | 3.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 4 | Cleveland Force Pre- Blue | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 12 | +9 | 14 | 1.75 | WWLDW | -0.15 | — | 100% | 4.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 5 | Kings Hammer SC Barcelona | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 10 | 1.43 | LDLWW | +0.31 | -2.25 | 1% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs WNY Flash Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Ohio Premier Pre- Dublin | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 9 | 1.13 | DDLWL | +0.01 | — | 0% | 6.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 7 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 5 | 0.83 | LDLWD | +0.15 | -0.29 | 0% | 6.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs GTFC Impact Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs WNY Flash Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Cleveland Force Pre- White | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 5 | 0.71 | DLLWD | -0.12 | +1.66 | 0% | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at GTFC Impact Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | WNY Flash Pre | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 18 | -16 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | -0.12 | +0.67 | 0% | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at Kings Hammer SC Barcelona · Sat Oct 24 vs GTFC Impact Pre · Sat Oct 24 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.22 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.