Kings Hammer SC Barcelona

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Ohio Valley GU11 (2015-2016) · 9 teams · Kings Hammer Columbus (all teams)

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5th

3-1-3 record · 7 played

1.43 points per game

-3 goal diff · 11–14

LDLWWlast 5

1% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.0

+0.31 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Mon Jan 1, TBD

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Kings Hammer SC Barcelona
5th · 1.43 PPG

WNY Flash Pre
9th · 0.00 PPG

Venue TBD

78% 13% 9%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.1 for, 1.1 against · 2.46 expected points)

Season so far	Kings Hammer SC Barcelona	WNY Flash Pre
Position	5th	9th
Record (W-D-L)	3-1-3	0-0-4
Points per game	1.43	0.00
Goals for / game	1.6	0.5
Goals against / game	2.0	4.5
Clean sheets	2	0
Held scoreless	2	2
Form (recent first)	W W L D L	L L L L
Biggest win	3–0 at Cleveland Force Pre- White	—
Worst loss	0–5 vs GTFC Impact Pre	0–6 at Ohio Premier Pre- Dublin
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.13	-2.25
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.31	-0.12

Common opponents: Cleveland Force Pre- White — we 3–0; they 1–3. Cleveland Force Pre- Blue — we 2–3; they 0–3. Ohio Premier Pre- Dublin — we 3–2; they 0–6. Internationals SC Pre — we 2–0; they 1–6.

Game plan

They struggle to score
WNY Flash Pre average 0.5 goals/game (league avg 2.2); blanked in 2 of 4.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
They leak goals — be greedy
WNY Flash Pre concede 4.5/game; worst result 0–6 at Ohio Premier Pre- Dublin.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–5 vs GTFC Impact Pre, 0–3 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 78% chance; likely score 3–1.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Confidence is low on their side
WNY Flash Pre have lost 4 straight (form: LLLL).
Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

If Monday goes…

Where we'd sit after the WNY Flash Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Kings Hammer SC Barcelona – WNY Flash Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Jan 1 – Sun Jan 7); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 1.63 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	5th— holds
Win 1.63 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	5th— holds
Draw 1.38 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	5th— holds
Loss 1.25 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	5th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–1 win we stay 5th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

1% top 4

99% below the top 4

5.0 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd
4th 1%
5th 96%
6th 3%
7th
8th
9th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 1 remaining known games (max 1.63 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre	2.33 (+0.90)	1st (2.32)	9 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	GTFC Impact Pre	2.25 (+0.82)	2nd (2.25)	8 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	Internationals SC Pre	1.88 (+0.45)	3rd (1.88)	6 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 5 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue	1.75 (+0.32)	4th (1.75)	4 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 4 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule

How the results connect

27 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Kings Hammer SC Barcelona to WNY Flash Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

24 favour us

3 favour them

+4.3 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -2.25 · 6th hardest of 6

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Mon Jan 1 TBD no score posted	WNY Flash Pre 9th · 0-0-4 · GD -16	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	78%	3–1	2.46	1.56	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre

+15

2.33

DWWWD

-0.17

-0.29

100%

1.4

D	Sat Oct 3	vs	Kings Hammer SC Barcelona (5th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (7th)	3–1
W	Sun Aug 30	at	Internationals SC Pre (3rd)	6–0
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Ohio Premier Pre- Dublin (6th)	4–2
D	Sat Aug 29	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (4th)	1–1
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Cleveland Force Pre- White (8th)	5–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs WNY Flash Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs GTFC Impact Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	WNY Flash Pre (9th)	4–0	95%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	GTFC Impact Pre (2nd)	2–2	50%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

GTFC Impact Pre

+12

2.25

WWLW

+0.17

-0.60

99%

1.6

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Ohio Premier Pre- Dublin (6th)	8–1
L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Internationals SC Pre (3rd)	0–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (4th)	5–2
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Kings Hammer SC Barcelona (5th)	5–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at WNY Flash Pre · Sat Oct 24 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	WNY Flash Pre (9th)	5–1	93%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (7th)	3–1	71%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (1st)	2–2	31%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Cleveland Force Pre- White (8th)	4–1	90%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Internationals SC Pre

1.88

LWLWL

-0.06

—

100%

3.0

Cleveland Force Pre- Blue

1.75

WWLDW

-0.15

—

100%

4.0

Kings Hammer SC Barcelona

-3

1.43

LDLWW

+0.31

-2.25

5.0

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Internationals SC Pre (3rd)	2–0
W	Wed Oct 7	vs	Ohio Premier Pre- Dublin (6th)	3–2
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (7th)	0–3
D	Sat Oct 3	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (1st)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 6	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (4th)	2–3
W	Sun Sep 6	at	Cleveland Force Pre- White (8th)	3–0
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	GTFC Impact Pre (2nd)	0–5

Next: Mon Jan 1 vs WNY Flash Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	vs	WNY Flash Pre (9th)	3–1	78%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Ohio Premier Pre- Dublin

-3

1.13

DDLWL

+0.01

—

6.2

Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre

-5

0.83

LDLWD

+0.15

-0.29

6.8

D	Sun Oct 4	at	Ohio Premier Pre- Dublin (6th)	3–3
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Kings Hammer SC Barcelona (5th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (1st)	1–3
D	Sun Aug 30	at	Cleveland Force Pre- White (8th)	0–0
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (4th)	0–5
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Internationals SC Pre (3rd)	3–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs GTFC Impact Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs WNY Flash Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	GTFC Impact Pre (2nd)	1–3	15%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	WNY Flash Pre (9th)	3–1	77%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cleveland Force Pre- White

-13

0.71

DLLWD

-0.12

+1.66

8.0

D	Sun Oct 4	vs	Ohio Premier Pre- Dublin (6th)	2–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	WNY Flash Pre (9th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (4th)	0–5
L	Sun Sep 6	vs	Kings Hammer SC Barcelona (5th)	0–3
D	Sun Aug 30	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (7th)	0–0
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Internationals SC Pre (3rd)	1–3
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (1st)	0–5

Next: Sun Nov 1 at GTFC Impact Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	GTFC Impact Pre (2nd)	1–4	4%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

WNY Flash Pre

-16

0.00

LLLL

-0.12

+0.67

9.0

L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Internationals SC Pre (3rd)	1–6
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (4th)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Ohio Premier Pre- Dublin (6th)	0–6
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Cleveland Force Pre- White (8th)	1–3

Next: Mon Jan 1 at Kings Hammer SC Barcelona · Sat Oct 24 vs GTFC Impact Pre · Sat Oct 24 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	at	Kings Hammer SC Barcelona (5th)	1–3	9%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	GTFC Impact Pre (2nd)	1–5	3%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (1st)	0–4	1%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (7th)	1–3	11%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.22 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.