Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Ohio Valley GU11 (2015-2016) · 9 teams · Pittsburgh Riverhounds (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 06:30 PM
Montour Junction Sports Complex, Field 1A ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 4–0 (expected goals 4.9 for, 0.7 against · 2.89 expected points)
| Season so far | Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre | WNY Flash Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 9th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-2-0 | 0-0-4 |
| Points per game | 2.33 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 3.3 | 0.5 |
| Goals against / game | 0.8 | 4.5 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | D W W W D | L L L L |
| Biggest win | 6–0 at Internationals SC Pre | — |
| Worst loss | — | 0–6 at Ohio Premier Pre- Dublin |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.54 | -2.25 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.17 | -0.12 |
Common opponents: Cleveland Force Pre- White — we 5–0; they 1–3. Cleveland Force Pre- Blue — we 1–1; they 0–3. Ohio Premier Pre- Dublin — we 4–2; they 0–6. Internationals SC Pre — we 6–0; they 1–6.
Game plan
-
They struggle to score
WNY Flash Pre average 0.5 goals/game (league avg 2.2); blanked in 2 of 4.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
They leak goals — be greedy
WNY Flash Pre concede 4.5/game; worst result 0–6 at Ohio Premier Pre- Dublin.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
-
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 95% chance; likely score 4–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
-
Confidence is low on their side
WNY Flash Pre have lost 4 straight (form: LLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the WNY Flash Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre – WNY Flash Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.43 PPG |
1st— holds | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
| Win 2.43 PPG |
1st— holds | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
| Draw 2.14 PPG |
2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
| Loss 2.00 PPG |
2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 4–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 59%
- 2nd 41%
- 3rd <1%
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
24 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre to WNY Flash Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.29 · 3rd hardest of 6
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 06:30 PM |
WNY Flash Pre 9th · 0-0-4 · GD -16 |
Home Montour Junction Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 95% |
4–0 | 2.89 | 2.41 | Bank it |
| Sun Oct 25 02:00 PM |
GTFC Impact Pre 2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +12 |
Home Montour Junction Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
2–2 | 1.70 | 2.32 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 5 | +15 | 14 | 2.33 | DWWWD | -0.17 | -0.29 | 100% | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs WNY Flash Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs GTFC Impact Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | GTFC Impact Pre | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 6 | +12 | 9 | 2.25 | WWLW | +0.17 | -0.60 | 99% | 1.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at WNY Flash Pre · Sat Oct 24 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Internationals SC Pre | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 17 | +4 | 15 | 1.88 | LWLWL | -0.06 | — | 100% | 3.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Cleveland Force Pre- Blue | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 12 | +9 | 14 | 1.75 | WWLDW | -0.15 | — | 100% | 4.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Kings Hammer SC Barcelona | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 10 | 1.43 | LDLWW | +0.31 | -2.25 | 1% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs WNY Flash Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Ohio Premier Pre- Dublin | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 9 | 1.13 | DDLWL | +0.01 | — | 0% | 6.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 5 | 0.83 | LDLWD | +0.15 | -0.29 | 0% | 6.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs GTFC Impact Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs WNY Flash Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Cleveland Force Pre- White | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 5 | 0.71 | DLLWD | -0.12 | +1.66 | 0% | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at GTFC Impact Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | WNY Flash Pre | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 18 | -16 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | -0.12 | +0.67 | 0% | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at Kings Hammer SC Barcelona · Sat Oct 24 vs GTFC Impact Pre · Sat Oct 24 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.22 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.