Total Futbol Academy Elite

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Ohio Valley GU10 (2016-2017) · 6 teams · Total Futbol Academy (OH) (all teams)

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3rd

2-4-2 record · 8 played

1.25 points per game

-3 goal diff · 17–20

LLDDWlast 5

99% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.2

+0.10 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Fri Oct 23, 05:30 PM

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Total Futbol Academy Elite
3rd · 1.25 PPG

Mercury Pre- G16/17 West
1st · 2.71 PPG

Miami White Water Soccer Complex, Field 16 ↗ far trip

10% 13% 78%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.1 for, 3.2 against · 0.41 expected points)

Season so far	Total Futbol Academy Elite	Mercury Pre- G16/17 West
Position	3rd	1st
Record (W-D-L)	2-4-2	6-1-0
Points per game	1.25	2.71
Goals for / game	2.1	3.0
Goals against / game	2.5	0.7
Clean sheets	1	4
Held scoreless	2	0
Form (recent first)	W D D L L	W W W D W
Biggest win	3–0 vs Ohio Elite SA Pre	5–0 vs Ohio Elite SA Pre
Worst loss	0–4 vs Mercury Pre- G16/17 West	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.24	+1.44
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.10	-0.55

Already played this season: Fri Oct 2 0–4 vs Mercury Pre- G16/17 West (L)

Common opponents: Union FC Indy Teal II — we 4–4, 1–1; they 2–1. Lexington Sporting Pre- Green — we 5–4, 2–2; they 3–1, 2–0. Mercury Pre- G16/17 North — we 0–3, 2–2; they 2–0. Ohio Elite SA Pre — we 3–0; they 3–3, 5–0.

Game plan

Respect their attack
Mercury Pre- G16/17 West score 3.0/game — well above the league's 2.0.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Hard to break down
Mercury Pre- G16/17 West concede only 0.7/game with 4 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–3 at Mercury Pre- G16/17 North, 0–4 vs Mercury Pre- G16/17 West.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 10%; a draw (13%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
They arrive in form
Mercury Pre- G16/17 West have won 3 straight.
Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
Away game
Kickoff 05:30 PM at Miami White Water Soccer Complex.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Friday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Mercury Pre- G16/17 West game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Total Futbol Academy Elite – Mercury Pre- G16/17 West) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 1.11 PPG	4th▼ down 1	3rd— holds	4th▼ down 1
Win 1.44 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	4th▼ down 1
Draw 1.22 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	4th▼ down 1
Loss 1.11 PPG	4th▼ down 1	3rd— holds	4th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

99% top 4

1% below the top 4

3.2 average finish

1st
2nd <1%
3rd 84%
4th 15%
5th 1%
6th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 1.60 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Mercury Pre- G16/17 West	2.71 (+1.46)	1st (2.52)	18 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Mercury Pre- G16/17 North	2.00 (+0.75)	2nd (2.17)	10 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule

How the results connect

54 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Total Futbol Academy Elite to Mercury Pre- G16/17 West through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

18 favour us

4 even

32 favour them

-1.2 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.13 · 5th hardest of 6

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Fri Oct 23 05:30 PM	Mercury Pre- G16/17 West 1st · 6-1-0 · GD +16	Away far trip Miami White Water Soccer Complex	●●●●● Very tough	10%	1–3	0.41	1.16	Upside
Sun Oct 25 01:00 PM	Ohio Elite SA Pre 6th · 1-2-5 · GD -13	Away far trip Ohio Elite Training Center	●●●○○ Toss-up	55%	2–1	1.82	1.22	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Mercury Pre- G16/17 West

+16

2.71

WDWWW

-0.55

+0.31

100%

1.2

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Ohio Elite SA Pre (6th)	5–0
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (5th)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (5th)	3–1
D	Sun Oct 4	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (6th)	3–3
W	Fri Oct 2	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (3rd)	4–0
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Mercury Pre- G16/17 North (2nd)	2–0
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Union FC Indy Teal II (4th)	2–1

Next: Fri Oct 23 vs Total Futbol Academy Elite · Sun Oct 25 vs Union FC Indy Teal II · Sat Nov 7 at Mercury Pre- G16/17 North See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Fri Oct 23	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (3rd)	3–1	78%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Union FC Indy Teal II (4th)	2–0	75%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Mercury Pre- G16/17 North (2nd)	1–1	36%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Mercury Pre- G16/17 North

+12

2.00

WLWDW

-0.15

-0.37

100%

1.8

W	Sat Oct 3	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (6th)	5–0
D	Sat Oct 3	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (3rd)	2–2
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (3rd)	3–0
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Mercury Pre- G16/17 West (1st)	0–2
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Union FC Indy Teal II (4th)	6–0

Next: Mon Jan 1 vs Lexington Sporting Pre- Green · Mon Jan 1 vs Lexington Sporting Pre- Green · Fri Oct 23 at Ohio Elite SA Pre See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	vs	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (5th)	3–1	86%
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	vs	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (5th)	3–1	86%
·	Fri Oct 23	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (6th)	3–1	82%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Union FC Indy Teal II (4th)	2–1	75%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Mercury Pre- G16/17 West (1st)	1–1	40%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Total Futbol Academy Elite

-3

1.25

LLDDW

+0.10

+0.13

99%

3.2

W	Thu Oct 15	vs	Ohio Elite SA Pre (6th)	3–0
D	Sun Oct 4	vs	Union FC Indy Teal II (4th)	1–1
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	Mercury Pre- G16/17 North (2nd)	2–2
L	Fri Oct 2	vs	Mercury Pre- G16/17 West (1st)	0–4
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Mercury Pre- G16/17 North (2nd)	0–3
D	Sat Sep 12	at	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (5th)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (5th)	5–4
D	Sun Aug 30	at	Union FC Indy Teal II (4th)	4–4

Next: Fri Oct 23 at Mercury Pre- G16/17 West · Sun Oct 25 at Ohio Elite SA Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Fri Oct 23	at	Mercury Pre- G16/17 West (1st)	1–3	10%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (6th)	2–1	55%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Union FC Indy Teal II

-2

1.13

WDDWD

-0.26

+1.44

93%

3.9

D	Sun Oct 4	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (3rd)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (6th)	2–1
D	Sun Sep 13	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (6th)	0–0
D	Sun Aug 30	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (3rd)	4–4
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (5th)	5–0
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (5th)	1–2
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Mercury Pre- G16/17 West (1st)	1–2
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Mercury Pre- G16/17 North (2nd)	0–6

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Mercury Pre- G16/17 West · Sun Oct 25 at Mercury Pre- G16/17 North See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Mercury Pre- G16/17 West (1st)	0–2	10%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Mercury Pre- G16/17 North (2nd)	1–2	11%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lexington Sporting Pre- Green

-10

0.88

DWLLL

+0.01

+1.43

5.2

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Mercury Pre- G16/17 West (1st)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Mercury Pre- G16/17 West (1st)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (6th)	1–4
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (6th)	4–2
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (3rd)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (3rd)	4–5
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Union FC Indy Teal II (4th)	0–5
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Union FC Indy Teal II (4th)	2–1

Next: Mon Jan 1 at Mercury Pre- G16/17 North · Mon Jan 1 at Mercury Pre- G16/17 North See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	at	Mercury Pre- G16/17 North (2nd)	1–3	6%
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	at	Mercury Pre- G16/17 North (2nd)	1–3	6%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Ohio Elite SA Pre

-13

0.63

WLDLL

+0.26

+0.60

5.7

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Mercury Pre- G16/17 West (1st)	0–5
L	Thu Oct 15	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (3rd)	0–3
D	Sun Oct 4	vs	Mercury Pre- G16/17 West (1st)	3–3
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Mercury Pre- G16/17 North (2nd)	0–5
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (5th)	4–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (5th)	2–4
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Union FC Indy Teal II (4th)	1–2
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	Union FC Indy Teal II (4th)	0–0

Next: Fri Oct 23 vs Mercury Pre- G16/17 North · Sun Oct 25 vs Total Futbol Academy Elite See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Fri Oct 23	vs	Mercury Pre- G16/17 North (2nd)	1–3	7%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (3rd)	1–2	27%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.03 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.