Mercury Pre- G16/17 North

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Ohio Valley GU10 (2016-2017) · 6 teams · Mercury (all teams)

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2nd

4-1-1 record · 6 played

2.17 points per game

+17 goal diff · 21–4

LWDWWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.7

-0.49 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 03:30 PM

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Mercury Pre- G16/17 North
2nd · 2.17 PPG

Union FC Indy Teal II
3rd · 1.13 PPG

Miami White Water Soccer Complex, Field 16 ↗

80% 12%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 3.1 for, 1.0 against · 2.52 expected points)

Season so far	Mercury Pre- G16/17 North	Union FC Indy Teal II
Position	2nd	3rd
Record (W-D-L)	4-1-1	2-3-3
Points per game	2.17	1.13
Goals for / game	3.5	1.8
Goals against / game	0.7	2.0
Clean sheets	4	2
Held scoreless	1	2
Form (recent first)	W W D W L	D W D D W
Biggest win	6–0 at Union FC Indy Teal II	5–0 vs Lexington Sporting Pre- Green
Worst loss	0–2 at Mercury Pre- G16/17 West	0–6 vs Mercury Pre- G16/17 North
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.76	-0.27
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.49	-0.33

Already played this season: Sat Aug 22 6–0 at Union FC Indy Teal II (W)

Common opponents: Mercury Pre- G16/17 West — we 0–2; they 1–2. Total Futbol Academy Elite — we 3–0, 2–2; they 4–4, 1–1. Ohio Elite SA Pre — we 5–0, 5–0; they 0–0, 2–1.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 at Mercury Pre- G16/17 West.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 80% chance; likely score 3–0.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Union FC Indy Teal II game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Mercury Pre- G16/17 North – Union FC Indy Teal II) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.29 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Win 2.29 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Draw 2.00 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Loss 1.86 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–0 win we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

32% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.7 average finish

1st 32%
2nd 68%
3rd
4th
5th
6th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Mercury Pre- G16/17 West	2.75 (+0.58)	1st (2.57)	15 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule

How the results connect

54 chains · 5 teams

Paths of results that link Mercury Pre- G16/17 North to Union FC Indy Teal II through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

38 favour us

3 even

13 favour them

+1.6 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.15 · 4th hardest of 6

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Mon Jan 1 TBD no score posted	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green 5th · 2-1-5 · GD -10	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	90%	4–0	2.76	2.25	Bank it
Mon Jan 1 TBD no score posted	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green 5th · 2-1-5 · GD -10	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	90%	4–0	2.76	2.31	Bank it
Sun Oct 25 03:30 PM	Union FC Indy Teal II 3rd · 2-3-3 · GD -2	Home Miami White Water Soccer Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	80%	3–0	2.52	2.34	Bank it
Sat Nov 7 03:00 PM	Mercury Pre- G16/17 West 1st · 7-1-0 · GD +19	Home Miami White Water Soccer Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	43%	1–1	1.52	2.26	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Mercury Pre- G16/17 West

+19

2.75

DWWWW

-0.58

+0.75

100%

1.3

W	Fri Oct 23	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	3–0
W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Ohio Elite SA Pre (6th)	5–0
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (5th)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (5th)	3–1
D	Sun Oct 4	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (6th)	3–3
W	Fri Oct 2	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	4–0
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Mercury Pre- G16/17 North (2nd)	2–0
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Union FC Indy Teal II (3rd)	2–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Union FC Indy Teal II · Sat Nov 7 at Mercury Pre- G16/17 North See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Union FC Indy Teal II (3rd)	2–0	77%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Mercury Pre- G16/17 North (2nd)	1–1	33%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Mercury Pre- G16/17 North

+17

2.17

LWDWW

-0.49

-0.15

100%

1.7

W	Fri Oct 23	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (6th)	5–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (6th)	5–0
D	Sat Oct 3	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	2–2
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	3–0
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Mercury Pre- G16/17 West (1st)	0–2
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Union FC Indy Teal II (3rd)	6–0

Next: Mon Jan 1 vs Lexington Sporting Pre- Green · Mon Jan 1 vs Lexington Sporting Pre- Green · Sun Oct 25 vs Union FC Indy Teal II See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	vs	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (5th)	4–0	90%
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	vs	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (5th)	4–0	90%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Union FC Indy Teal II (3rd)	3–0	80%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Mercury Pre- G16/17 West (1st)	1–1	43%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Union FC Indy Teal II

-2

1.13

WDDWD

-0.33

+1.65

95%

3.9

D	Sun Oct 4	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (6th)	2–1
D	Sun Sep 13	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (6th)	0–0
D	Sun Aug 30	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	4–4
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (5th)	5–0
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (5th)	1–2
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Mercury Pre- G16/17 West (1st)	1–2
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Mercury Pre- G16/17 North (2nd)	0–6

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Mercury Pre- G16/17 West · Sun Oct 25 at Mercury Pre- G16/17 North See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Mercury Pre- G16/17 West (1st)	0–2	9%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Mercury Pre- G16/17 North (2nd)	0–3	8%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Total Futbol Academy Elite

-6

1.11

LDDWL

+0.33

-1.43

100%

3.1

L	Fri Oct 23	at	Mercury Pre- G16/17 West (1st)	0–3
W	Thu Oct 15	vs	Ohio Elite SA Pre (6th)	3–0
D	Sun Oct 4	vs	Union FC Indy Teal II (3rd)	1–1
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	Mercury Pre- G16/17 North (2nd)	2–2
L	Fri Oct 2	vs	Mercury Pre- G16/17 West (1st)	0–4
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Mercury Pre- G16/17 North (2nd)	0–3
D	Sat Sep 12	at	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (5th)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (5th)	5–4
D	Sun Aug 30	at	Union FC Indy Teal II (3rd)	4–4

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Ohio Elite SA Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (6th)	2–1	56%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lexington Sporting Pre- Green

-10

0.88

DWLLL

-0.06

+1.76

5.2

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Mercury Pre- G16/17 West (1st)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Mercury Pre- G16/17 West (1st)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (6th)	1–4
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (6th)	4–2
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	4–5
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Union FC Indy Teal II (3rd)	0–5
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Union FC Indy Teal II (3rd)	2–1

Next: Mon Jan 1 at Mercury Pre- G16/17 North · Mon Jan 1 at Mercury Pre- G16/17 North See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	at	Mercury Pre- G16/17 North (2nd)	0–4	4%
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	at	Mercury Pre- G16/17 North (2nd)	0–4	4%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Ohio Elite SA Pre

-18

0.56

LDLLL

+0.48

-0.39

5.8

L	Fri Oct 23	vs	Mercury Pre- G16/17 North (2nd)	0–5
L	Sun Oct 18	at	Mercury Pre- G16/17 West (1st)	0–5
L	Thu Oct 15	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	0–3
D	Sun Oct 4	vs	Mercury Pre- G16/17 West (1st)	3–3
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Mercury Pre- G16/17 North (2nd)	0–5
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (5th)	4–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (5th)	2–4
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Union FC Indy Teal II (3rd)	1–2
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	Union FC Indy Teal II (3rd)	0–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Total Futbol Academy Elite See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	1–2	25%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.02 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.