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Lexington Sporting Pre- Green

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Ohio Valley GU10 (2016-2017) · 6 teams · Lexington Sporting (all teams)

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5th
2-1-5 record · 8 played
0.88 points per game
-10 goal diff · 14–24
DWLLLlast 5
5% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.2
-0.06 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Mon Jan 1, TBD

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Lexington Sporting Pre- Green
5th · 0.88 PPG
at
Mercury Pre- G16/17 North
2nd · 2.17 PPG

Venue TBD

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–4 (expected goals 1.0 for, 4.3 against · 0.18 expected points)

Season so farLexington Sporting Pre- GreenMercury Pre- G16/17 North
Position5th2nd
Record (W-D-L)2-1-54-1-1
Points per game0.882.17
Goals for / game1.83.5
Goals against / game3.00.7
Clean sheets04
Held scoreless21
Form (recent first)L L L W DW W D W L
Biggest win4–2 at Ohio Elite SA Pre6–0 at Union FC Indy Teal II
Worst loss0–5 at Union FC Indy Teal II0–2 at Mercury Pre- G16/17 West
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.94+1.76
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.06-0.49

Common opponents: Union FC Indy Teal II — we 2–1, 0–5; they 6–0. Total Futbol Academy Elite — we 4–5, 2–2; they 3–0, 2–2. Ohio Elite SA Pre — we 4–2, 1–4; they 5–0, 5–0. Mercury Pre- G16/17 West — we 1–3, 0–2; they 0–2.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Mercury Pre- G16/17 North score 3.5/game — well above the league's 2.0.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    Mercury Pre- G16/17 North concede only 0.7/game with 4 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–5 at Union FC Indy Teal II, 0–2 vs Mercury Pre- G16/17 West.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 4%; a draw (6%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff TBD at TBD.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Total Futbol Academy Elite sit 4th on 1.11 PPG; we are on 0.88.

    A point moves us above Total Futbol Academy Elite on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Monday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Mercury Pre- G16/17 North game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Lexington Sporting Pre- Green – Mercury Pre- G16/17 North) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Jan 1 – Sun Jan 7); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.78 PPG		 5th— holds 5th— holds 5th— holds
Win
1.11 PPG		 5th— holds 5th— holds 5th— holds
Draw
0.89 PPG		 5th— holds 5th— holds 5th— holds
Loss
0.78 PPG		 5th— holds 5th— holds 5th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–4 loss we stay 5th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
5% top 4
95% below the top 4
5.2 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th 5%
  5. 5th 74%
  6. 6th 21%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 1.30 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Mercury Pre- G16/17 West 2.75 (+1.87) 1st (2.57) 21 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Mercury Pre- G16/17 North 2.17 (+1.29) 2nd (2.26) 15 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Union FC Indy Teal II 1.13 (+0.25) 4th (0.98) 5 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 3 for their projection
4 Total Futbol Academy Elite 1.11 (+0.23) 3rd (1.19) A point next game

How the results connect

72 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Lexington Sporting Pre- Green to Mercury Pre- G16/17 North through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

8 favour us
3 even
61 favour them
-3.8 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–3 2–0 0–2 2–2 2–2 4–5 4–2 0–5 0–5 0–3 2–1 0–6 1–4 0–5 Lexington Sporting … 5th Mercury Pre- G16/17… 1st Total Futbol Academ… 4th Ohio Elite SA Pre 6th Union FC Indy Teal … 3rd Mercury Pre- G16/17… 2nd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

1st 3rd 6th Aug 22 Sep 12 Oct 2 Oct 15 Oct 23

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +1.76 · 1st hardest of 6

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Mon Jan 1
TBD
no score posted		 Mercury Pre- G16/17 North
2nd · 4-1-1 · GD +17		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
4%		 0–4 0.18 0.80 Upside
Mon Jan 1
TBD
no score posted		 Mercury Pre- G16/17 North
2nd · 4-1-1 · GD +17		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
4%		 0–4 0.18 0.74 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Mercury Pre- G16/17 West 8710 245+19 222.75 DWWWW -0.58 +0.75 100% 1.3
2 Mercury Pre- G16/17 North 6411 214+17 132.17 LWDWW -0.49 -0.15 100% 1.7
3 Union FC Indy Teal II 8233 1416-2 91.13 WDDWD -0.33 +1.65 95% 3.9
4 Total Futbol Academy Elite 9243 1723-6 101.11 LDDWL +0.33 -1.43 100% 3.1
5 Lexington Sporting Pre- Green 8215 1424-10 70.88 DWLLL -0.06 +1.76 5% 5.2
6 Ohio Elite SA Pre 9126 1028-18 50.56 LDLLL +0.48 -0.39 0% 5.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.02 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.