Ohio Elite SA Pre

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Ohio Valley GU10 (2016-2017) · 7 teams · Ohio Elite Soccer Academy (all teams)

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5th

2-0-4 record · 6 played

1.00 points per game

-12 goal diff · 10–22

WLLWLlast 5

16% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.3

+0.00 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM

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Ohio Elite SA Pre
5th · 1.00 PPG

Sporting Columbus
7th · 0.00 PPG

Thompson Park, Field 5 ↗ far trip

49% 18% 33%

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.7 for, 2.2 against · 1.65 expected points)

Season so far	Ohio Elite SA Pre	Sporting Columbus
Position	5th	7th
Record (W-D-L)	2-0-4	0-0-4
Points per game	1.00	0.00
Goals for / game	1.7	0.8
Goals against / game	3.7	4.8
Clean sheets	0	0
Held scoreless	1	1
Form (recent first)	L W L L W	L L L L
Biggest win	3–1 vs Sporting Columbus	—
Worst loss	1–7 vs Union FC Indy Teal I	1–9 at Union FC Indy Teal I
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-1.31	-2.04
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.00	+0.61

Already played this season: Sat Sep 19 3–1 vs Sporting Columbus (W)

Common opponents: Union FC Indy Teal I — we 1–7; they 1–9. Indy Eleven Pre — we 0–6; they 0–4. FC Pride Elite Pre — we 1–3; they 1–3.

Game plan

They struggle to score
Sporting Columbus average 0.8 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 1 of 4.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
They leak goals — be greedy
Sporting Columbus concede 4.8/game; worst result 1–9 at Union FC Indy Teal I.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–6 at Indy Eleven Pre.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Swing game — small margins
Win 49% / draw 18% / loss 33%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
Confidence is low on their side
Sporting Columbus have lost 4 straight (form: LLLL).
Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
Away game
Kickoff 01:00 PM at Thompson Park.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre sit 4th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 1.00.
A point moves us above Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Sporting Columbus game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Ohio Elite SA Pre – Sporting Columbus) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 1.00 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	6th▼ down 1
Win 1.29 PPG	4th▲ up 1	4th▲ up 1	4th▲ up 1
Draw 1.00 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	6th▼ down 1
Loss 0.86 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	6th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 5th even if every rival loses, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

16% top 4

84% below the top 4

5.3 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd 3%
4th 13%
5th 38%
6th 45%
7th 1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 1.50 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Union FC Indy Teal I	3.00 (+2.00)	1st (2.76)	18 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Indy Eleven Pre	2.57 (+1.57)	2nd (2.40)	15 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	FC Pride Elite Pre	1.29 (+0.29)	4th (1.29)	5 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 5 for their projection
4	Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre	1.00 (+0.00)	3rd (1.56)	A point next game

How the results connect

16 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Ohio Elite SA Pre to Sporting Columbus through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

8 favour us

3 even

5 favour them

+0.4 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

14 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.91 · 6th hardest of 7

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 01:00 PM	Sporting Columbus 7th · 0-0-4 · GD -16	Away far trip Thompson Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	49%	2–2	1.65	1.09	Swing game
Sun Oct 25 11:15 AM	Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre 4th · 1-0-2 · GD -1	Home Ohio Elite Training Center	●●●●● Very tough	22%	2–3	0.82	1.06	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Union FC Indy Teal I

+23

3.00

WWWWW

-0.78

-0.48

100%

1.1

W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Sporting Columbus (7th)	9–1
W	Fri Oct 2	at	FC Pride Elite Pre (3rd)	3–2
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (5th)	7–1
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre (4th)	5–2
W	Fri Aug 21	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre (3rd)	5–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Indy Eleven Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Mercury Pre- 1 · Sun Nov 15 at Sporting Columbus See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Indy Eleven Pre (2nd)	2–2	48%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Mercury Pre- 1 (6th)	4–1	84%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Sporting Columbus (7th)	6–1	95%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Indy Eleven Pre

+14

2.57

WLWWW

-0.62

+2.56

100%

2.0

W	Thu Oct 22	at	FC Pride Elite Pre (3rd)	1–0
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Sporting Columbus (7th)	4–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Ohio Elite SA Pre (5th)	6–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre (4th)	0–3
W	Tue Sep 15	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre (3rd)	5–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre (4th)	3–2
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	Mercury Pre- 1 (6th)	3–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Union FC Indy Teal I See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Union FC Indy Teal I (1st)	2–2	34%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Pride Elite Pre

-4

1.29

WLWWL

+0.45

+0.22

75%

4.1

L	Thu Oct 22	vs	Indy Eleven Pre (2nd)	0–1
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Sporting Columbus (7th)	3–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Ohio Elite SA Pre (5th)	3–1
L	Fri Oct 2	vs	Union FC Indy Teal I (1st)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Mercury Pre- 1 (6th)	3–0
L	Tue Sep 15	at	Indy Eleven Pre (2nd)	1–5
L	Fri Aug 21	at	Union FC Indy Teal I (1st)	0–5

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre (4th)	2–2	37%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre

-1

1.00

LLW

+1.67

-0.99

87%

3.4

W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Indy Eleven Pre (2nd)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Indy Eleven Pre (2nd)	2–3
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Union FC Indy Teal I (1st)	2–5

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Ohio Elite SA Pre · Sat Nov 7 at FC Pride Elite Pre · Sun Nov 8 at Mercury Pre- 1 See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (5th)	3–2	62%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC Pride Elite Pre (3rd)	2–2	43%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Mercury Pre- 1 (6th)	2–2	51%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Mercury Pre- 1 (6th)	2–2	51%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Sporting Columbus (7th)	4–1	82%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Ohio Elite SA Pre

-12

1.00

WLLWL

+0.00

-0.91

16%

5.3

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Mercury Pre- 1 (6th)	3–4
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Mercury Pre- 1 (6th)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 3	at	FC Pride Elite Pre (3rd)	1–3
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Indy Eleven Pre (2nd)	0–6
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Sporting Columbus (7th)	3–1
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Union FC Indy Teal I (1st)	1–7

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sporting Columbus · Sun Oct 25 vs Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Sporting Columbus (7th)	2–2	49%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre (4th)	2–3	22%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Mercury Pre- 1

-4

0.75

LLLW

-0.52

+0.24

22%

5.2

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Ohio Elite SA Pre (5th)	4–3
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (5th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre (3rd)	0–3
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Indy Eleven Pre (2nd)	2–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Union FC Indy Teal I · Sun Nov 8 vs Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre · Sun Nov 8 vs Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Union FC Indy Teal I (1st)	1–4	8%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre (4th)	2–2	31%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre (4th)	2–2	31%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Sporting Columbus (7th)	3–1	69%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sporting Columbus

-16

0.00

LLLL

+0.61

+0.20

6.9

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Indy Eleven Pre (2nd)	0–4
L	Sat Oct 10	at	FC Pride Elite Pre (3rd)	1–3
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Union FC Indy Teal I (1st)	1–9
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (5th)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Ohio Elite SA Pre · Sat Nov 14 at Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre · Sun Nov 15 vs Union FC Indy Teal I See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Ohio Elite SA Pre (5th)	2–2	33%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre (4th)	1–4	8%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Union FC Indy Teal I (1st)	1–6	2%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Mercury Pre- 1 (6th)	1–3	17%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.49 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.