Mercury Pre- 1

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Ohio Valley GU10 (2016-2017) · 7 teams · Mercury (all teams)

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6th

1-0-3 record · 4 played

0.75 points per game

-4 goal diff · 7–11

LLLWlast 4

24% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.1

-0.60 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:50 AM

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Mercury Pre- 1
6th · 0.75 PPG

Union FC Indy Teal I
1st · 3.00 PPG

Miami White Water Soccer Complex, Field 18 ↗

7% 8% 84%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–4 (expected goals 1.6 for, 4.6 against · 0.31 expected points)

Season so far	Mercury Pre- 1	Union FC Indy Teal I
Position	6th	1st
Record (W-D-L)	1-0-3	5-0-0
Points per game	0.75	3.00
Goals for / game	1.8	5.8
Goals against / game	2.8	1.2
Clean sheets	0	1
Held scoreless	1	0
Form (recent first)	W L L L	W W W W W
Biggest win	4–3 vs Ohio Elite SA Pre	9–1 vs Sporting Columbus
Worst loss	0–3 vs FC Pride Elite Pre	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.70	+2.56
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.60	-0.71

Common opponents: FC Pride Elite Pre — we 0–3; they 5–0, 3–2. Ohio Elite SA Pre — we 1–2, 4–3; they 7–1.

Game plan

Respect their attack
Union FC Indy Teal I score 5.8/game — well above the league's 2.5.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Hard to break down
Union FC Indy Teal I concede only 1.2/game with 1 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 vs FC Pride Elite Pre.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 7%; a draw (8%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
They arrive in form
Union FC Indy Teal I have won 5 straight.
Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
What a win does
Ohio Elite SA Pre sit 5th on 0.86 PPG; we are on 0.75.
A point moves us above Ohio Elite SA Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Union FC Indy Teal I game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Mercury Pre- 1 – Union FC Indy Teal I) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 0.60 PPG	6th— holds	6th— holds	6th— holds
Win 1.20 PPG	4th▲ up 2	5th▲ up 1	5th▲ up 1
Draw 0.80 PPG	6th— holds	5th▲ up 1	6th— holds
Loss 0.60 PPG	6th— holds	6th— holds	6th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–4 loss we stay 6th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

24% top 4

76% below the top 4

5.1 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd 7%
4th 17%
5th 46%
6th 18%
7th 12%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 1.88 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Union FC Indy Teal I	3.00 (+2.25)	1st (2.76)	21 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Indy Eleven Pre	2.57 (+1.82)	2nd (2.40)	18 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	FC Pride Elite Pre	1.29 (+0.54)	4th (1.29)	8 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection
4	Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre	1.00 (+0.25)	3rd (1.56)	A point next game
5	Ohio Elite SA Pre	0.86 (+0.11)	6th (0.84)	A point next game

How the results connect

22 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Mercury Pre- 1 to Union FC Indy Teal I through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us

21 favour them

-5.2 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

15 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.34 · 3rd hardest of 7

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Oct 25 10:50 AM	Union FC Indy Teal I 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +23	Home Miami White Water Soccer Complex	●●●●● Very tough	7%	1–4	0.31	0.66	Upside
Sun Nov 8 TBD	Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre 4th · 1-0-2 · GD -1	Home	●●●●○ Tough	30%	2–2	1.09	0.73	Upside
Sun Nov 8 TBD	Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre 4th · 1-0-2 · GD -1	Home	●●●●○ Tough	30%	2–2	1.09	0.78	Upside
Sun Nov 15 02:20 PM	Sporting Columbus 7th · 1-0-4 · GD -14	Home Miami White Water Soccer Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	62%	2–1	2.03	0.94	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Union FC Indy Teal I

+23

3.00

WWWWW

-0.71

-0.36

100%

1.1

W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Sporting Columbus (7th)	9–1
W	Fri Oct 2	at	FC Pride Elite Pre (3rd)	3–2
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (5th)	7–1
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre (4th)	5–2
W	Fri Aug 21	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre (3rd)	5–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Indy Eleven Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Mercury Pre- 1 · Sun Nov 15 at Sporting Columbus See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Indy Eleven Pre (2nd)	2–2	48%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Mercury Pre- 1 (6th)	4–1	84%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Sporting Columbus (7th)	5–1	93%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Indy Eleven Pre

+14

2.57

WLWWW

-0.58

+2.56

100%

1.9

W	Thu Oct 22	at	FC Pride Elite Pre (3rd)	1–0
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Sporting Columbus (7th)	4–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Ohio Elite SA Pre (5th)	6–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre (4th)	0–3
W	Tue Sep 15	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre (3rd)	5–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre (4th)	3–2
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	Mercury Pre- 1 (6th)	3–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Union FC Indy Teal I See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Union FC Indy Teal I (1st)	2–2	34%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Pride Elite Pre

-4

1.29

WLWWL

+0.49

+0.22

85%

4.0

L	Thu Oct 22	vs	Indy Eleven Pre (2nd)	0–1
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Sporting Columbus (7th)	3–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Ohio Elite SA Pre (5th)	3–1
L	Fri Oct 2	vs	Union FC Indy Teal I (1st)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Mercury Pre- 1 (6th)	3–0
L	Tue Sep 15	at	Indy Eleven Pre (2nd)	1–5
L	Fri Aug 21	at	Union FC Indy Teal I (1st)	0–5

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre (4th)	2–2	37%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre

-1

1.00

LLW

+1.67

-0.95

89%

3.4

W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Indy Eleven Pre (2nd)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Indy Eleven Pre (2nd)	2–3
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Union FC Indy Teal I (1st)	2–5

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Ohio Elite SA Pre · Sat Nov 7 at FC Pride Elite Pre · Sun Nov 8 at Mercury Pre- 1 See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (5th)	3–1	64%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC Pride Elite Pre (3rd)	2–2	43%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Mercury Pre- 1 (6th)	2–2	52%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Mercury Pre- 1 (6th)	2–2	52%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Sporting Columbus (7th)	3–1	77%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Ohio Elite SA Pre

-14

0.86

LLWLL

-0.22

+0.22

5.7

L	Sat Oct 24	at	Sporting Columbus (7th)	1–3
L	Sun Oct 18	at	Mercury Pre- 1 (6th)	3–4
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Mercury Pre- 1 (6th)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 3	at	FC Pride Elite Pre (3rd)	1–3
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Indy Eleven Pre (2nd)	0–6
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Sporting Columbus (7th)	3–1
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Union FC Indy Teal I (1st)	1–7

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre (4th)	1–3	20%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Mercury Pre- 1

-4

0.75

LLLW

-0.60

+0.34

24%

5.1

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Ohio Elite SA Pre (5th)	4–3
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (5th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre (3rd)	0–3
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Indy Eleven Pre (2nd)	2–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Union FC Indy Teal I · Sun Nov 8 vs Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre · Sun Nov 8 vs Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Union FC Indy Teal I (1st)	1–4	7%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre (4th)	2–2	30%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre (4th)	2–2	30%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Sporting Columbus (7th)	2–1	62%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sporting Columbus

-14

0.60

LLLLW

+0.14

+0.69

6.8

W	Sat Oct 24	vs	Ohio Elite SA Pre (5th)	3–1
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Indy Eleven Pre (2nd)	0–4
L	Sat Oct 10	at	FC Pride Elite Pre (3rd)	1–3
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Union FC Indy Teal I (1st)	1–9
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (5th)	1–3

Next: Sat Nov 14 at Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre · Sun Nov 15 vs Union FC Indy Teal I · Sun Nov 15 at Mercury Pre- 1 See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre (4th)	1–3	11%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Union FC Indy Teal I (1st)	1–5	3%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Mercury Pre- 1 (6th)	1–2	21%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.47 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.