Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Ohio Valley GU10 (2016-2017) · 8 teams · Pittsburgh Riverhounds (all teams)

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7th

0-0-5 record · 5 played

0.00 points per game

-9 goal diff · 10–19

LLLLLlast 5

0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.4

+1.27 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 04:00 PM

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Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre
7th · 0.00 PPG

Ohio Premier Academy Dublin Black
6th · 0.20 PPG

Montour Junction Sports Complex, Indoor 3 ↗

55% 17% 28%

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 3.0 for, 2.2 against · 1.82 expected points)

Season so far	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre	Ohio Premier Academy Dublin Black
Position	7th	6th
Record (W-D-L)	0-0-5	0-1-4
Points per game	0.00	0.20
Goals for / game	2.0	1.2
Goals against / game	3.8	3.4
Clean sheets	0	0
Held scoreless	0	1
Form (recent first)	L L L L L	L L L L D
Biggest win	—	—
Worst loss	1–4 at Cleveland Force Pre- White	1–5 at Pacesetter SC Red
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.63	-0.98
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+1.27	+1.25

Common opponents: Cleveland Force Pre- White — we 1–4; they 1–3. Cleveland Force Pre- Blue — we 1–4; they 1–3. Pacesetter SC Red — we 2–3; they 3–3, 1–5. WNY Flash Rochester Pre — we 3–4, 3–4; they 0–3.

Game plan

They struggle to score
Ohio Premier Academy Dublin Black average 1.2 goals/game (league avg 2.7); blanked in 1 of 5.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
Swing game — small margins
Win 55% / draw 17% / loss 28%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
Confidence is low on their side
Ohio Premier Academy Dublin Black have lost 4 straight (form: DLLLL).
Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
What a win does
Ohio Premier Academy Dublin Black sit 6th on 0.20 PPG; we are on 0.00.
A point moves us above Ohio Premier Academy Dublin Black on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Ohio Premier Academy Dublin Black game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre – Ohio Premier Academy Dublin Black) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 0.17 PPG	7th— holds	7th— holds	8th▼ down 1
Win 0.50 PPG	6th▲ up 1	6th▲ up 1	7th— holds
Draw 0.17 PPG	7th— holds	7th— holds	8th▼ down 1
Loss 0.00 PPG	7th— holds	7th— holds	8th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 7th even if every rival loses, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

0% top 4

100% below the top 4

6.4 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th 6%
6th 53%
7th 37%
8th 3%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 1.13 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	WNY Flash Rochester Pre	2.75 (+2.75)	1st (2.75)	22 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Pacesetter SC Red	2.38 (+2.38)	2nd (2.38)	20 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue	1.86 (+1.86)	3rd (1.86)	15 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4	Cleveland Force Pre- White	1.71 (+1.71)	4th (1.74)	14 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5	Northern Steel Select Soccer Rebellion	1.00 (+1.00)	5th (1.43)	8 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6	Ohio Premier Academy Dublin Black	0.20 (+0.20)	7th (0.64)	A point next game

How the results connect

27 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre to Ohio Premier Academy Dublin Black through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

14 favour us

2 even

11 favour them

+0.4 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -1.62 · 6th hardest of 6

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 04:00 PM	Ohio Premier Academy Dublin Black 6th · 0-1-4 · GD -11	Home Montour Junction Sports Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	55%	2–2	1.82	0.30	Swing game
Sat Oct 31 11:30 AM	Northern Steel Select Soccer Rebellion 5th · 1-0-2 · GD +0	Away far trip Northern Steel Beacon Soccer Complex	●●●●○ Tough	27%	2–2	0.99	0.40	Upside
Sun Nov 1 01:00 PM	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre 8th · 0-0-5 · GD -35	Home Montour Junction Sports Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	88%	5–1	2.71	0.69	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

WNY Flash Rochester Pre

+18

2.75

WWWWW

-0.41

—

100%

1.0

Pacesetter SC Red

+20

2.38

WWLWW

-0.38

—

100%

2.0

Cleveland Force Pre- Blue

1.86

DWWLL

+0.04

-0.04

92%

3.5

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Cleveland Force Pre- White (4th)	1–4
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Pacesetter SC Red (2nd)	0–2
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Cleveland Force Pre- White (4th)	3–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Ohio Premier Academy Dublin Black (6th)	3–1
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (1st)	2–2
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (7th)	4–1
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (8th)	9–2

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Northern Steel Select Soccer Rebellion See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Northern Steel Select Soccer Rebellion (5th)	2–1	57%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cleveland Force Pre- White

1.71

LWLLW

+0.02

-0.04

79%

3.9

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (3rd)	4–1
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Pacesetter SC Red (2nd)	0–6
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (3rd)	2–3
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Ohio Premier Academy Dublin Black (6th)	3–1
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (1st)	2–4
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (7th)	4–1
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (8th)	12–2

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Northern Steel Select Soccer Rebellion See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Northern Steel Select Soccer Rebellion (5th)	3–2	59%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Northern Steel Select Soccer Rebellion

1.00

WLL

+0.09

-0.82

29%

4.7

L	Sat Oct 17	at	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (1st)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Pacesetter SC Red (2nd)	1–3
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (8th)	5–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Ohio Premier Academy Dublin Black · Sat Oct 31 vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Ohio Premier Academy Dublin Black (6th)	2–1	61%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (8th)	5–1	90%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (7th)	2–2	56%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (3rd)	1–2	25%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Cleveland Force Pre- White (4th)	2–3	25%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Ohio Premier Academy Dublin Black

-11

0.20

DLLLL

+1.25

-1.51

6.7

L	Sun Oct 4	vs	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (1st)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Cleveland Force Pre- White (4th)	1–3
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (3rd)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Pacesetter SC Red (2nd)	1–5
D	Sun Sep 13	at	Pacesetter SC Red (2nd)	3–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre · Sat Oct 24 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Northern Steel Select Soccer Rebellion See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (8th)	3–1	71%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (7th)	2–2	28%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Northern Steel Select Soccer Rebellion (5th)	1–2	21%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre

-9

0.00

LLLLL

+1.27

-1.62

6.4

L	Sun Oct 18	at	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (1st)	3–4
L	Sun Oct 18	at	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (1st)	3–4
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Pacesetter SC Red (2nd)	2–3
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (3rd)	1–4
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Cleveland Force Pre- White (4th)	1–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Ohio Premier Academy Dublin Black · Sat Oct 31 at Northern Steel Select Soccer Rebellion · Sun Nov 1 vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Ohio Premier Academy Dublin Black (6th)	2–2	55%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Northern Steel Select Soccer Rebellion (5th)	2–2	27%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (8th)	5–1	88%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre

-35

0.00

LLLLL

+0.98

-0.55

7.9

L	Sat Oct 17	at	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (1st)	0–5
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Pacesetter SC Red (2nd)	0–8
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (3rd)	2–9
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Cleveland Force Pre- White (4th)	2–12
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Northern Steel Select Soccer Rebellion (5th)	0–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Ohio Premier Academy Dublin Black · Sat Oct 31 at Northern Steel Select Soccer Rebellion · Sun Nov 1 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Ohio Premier Academy Dublin Black (6th)	1–3	16%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Northern Steel Select Soccer Rebellion (5th)	1–5	4%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (7th)	1–5	5%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.67 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.