Cleveland Force Pre- White

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Ohio Valley GU10 (2016-2017) · 8 teams · Cleveland Force SC (all teams)

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4th

4-0-3 record · 7 played

1.71 points per game

+9 goal diff · 27–18

LWLLWlast 5

80% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.9

+0.02 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 7, 12:45 PM

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Cleveland Force Pre- White
4th · 1.71 PPG

Northern Steel Select Soccer Rebellion
5th · 1.00 PPG

Sportsplex, Turf Outdoor1 ↗ · turf

59% 16% 25%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–2 (expected goals 3.2 for, 2.2 against · 1.92 expected points)

Season so far	Cleveland Force Pre- White	Northern Steel Select Soccer Rebellion
Position	4th	5th
Record (W-D-L)	4-0-3	1-0-2
Points per game	1.71	1.00
Goals for / game	3.9	2.0
Goals against / game	2.6	2.0
Clean sheets	0	1
Held scoreless	1	1
Form (recent first)	W L L W L	L L W
Biggest win	12–2 vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre	5–0 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre
Worst loss	0–6 vs Pacesetter SC Red	0–3 at WNY Flash Rochester Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.72	-0.04
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.02	+0.09

Common opponents: Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre — we 12–2; they 5–0. WNY Flash Rochester Pre — we 2–4; they 0–3. Pacesetter SC Red — we 0–6; they 1–3.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–6 vs Pacesetter SC Red.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Swing game — small margins
Win 59% / draw 16% / loss 25%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
What a win does
Cleveland Force Pre- Blue sit 3rd on 1.86 PPG; we are on 1.71.
A point moves us above Cleveland Force Pre- Blue on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Northern Steel Select Soccer Rebellion game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Cleveland Force Pre- White – Northern Steel Select Soccer Rebellion) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 1.88 PPG	3rd▲ up 1	4th— holds	4th— holds
Win 1.88 PPG	3rd▲ up 1	4th— holds	4th— holds
Draw 1.63 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds
Loss 1.50 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	5th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–2 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

80% top 4

20% below the top 4

3.9 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd 25%
4th 55%
5th 20%
6th
7th
8th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 1 remaining known games (max 1.88 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	WNY Flash Rochester Pre	2.75 (+1.04)	1st (2.75)	10 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Pacesetter SC Red	2.38 (+0.67)	2nd (2.38)	8 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue	1.86 (+0.15)	3rd (1.86)	A point next game

How the results connect

21 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Cleveland Force Pre- White to Northern Steel Select Soccer Rebellion through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

15 favour us

1 even

5 favour them

+2.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.04 · 2nd hardest of 6

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Nov 7 12:45 PM	Northern Steel Select Soccer Rebellion 5th · 1-0-2 · GD +0	Home Sportsplex · turf	●●○○○ Lean win	59%	3–2	1.92	1.74	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

WNY Flash Rochester Pre

+18

2.75

WWWWW

-0.41

—

100%

1.0

Pacesetter SC Red

+20

2.38

WWLWW

-0.38

—

100%

2.0

Cleveland Force Pre- Blue

1.86

DWWLL

+0.04

-0.04

93%

3.5

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Cleveland Force Pre- White (4th)	1–4
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Pacesetter SC Red (2nd)	0–2
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Cleveland Force Pre- White (4th)	3–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Ohio Premier Academy Dublin Black (6th)	3–1
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (1st)	2–2
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (7th)	4–1
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (8th)	9–2

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Northern Steel Select Soccer Rebellion See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Northern Steel Select Soccer Rebellion (5th)	2–1	57%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cleveland Force Pre- White

1.71

LWLLW

+0.02

-0.04

80%

3.9

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (3rd)	4–1
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Pacesetter SC Red (2nd)	0–6
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (3rd)	2–3
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Ohio Premier Academy Dublin Black (6th)	3–1
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (1st)	2–4
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (7th)	4–1
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (8th)	12–2

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Northern Steel Select Soccer Rebellion See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Northern Steel Select Soccer Rebellion (5th)	3–2	59%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Northern Steel Select Soccer Rebellion

1.00

WLL

+0.09

-0.82

27%

4.7

L	Sat Oct 17	at	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (1st)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Pacesetter SC Red (2nd)	1–3
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (8th)	5–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Ohio Premier Academy Dublin Black · Sat Oct 31 vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Ohio Premier Academy Dublin Black (6th)	2–1	61%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (8th)	5–1	90%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (7th)	2–2	56%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (3rd)	1–2	25%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Cleveland Force Pre- White (4th)	2–3	25%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Ohio Premier Academy Dublin Black

-11

0.20

DLLLL

+1.25

-1.51

6.6

L	Sun Oct 4	vs	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (1st)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Cleveland Force Pre- White (4th)	1–3
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (3rd)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Pacesetter SC Red (2nd)	1–5
D	Sun Sep 13	at	Pacesetter SC Red (2nd)	3–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre · Sat Oct 24 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Northern Steel Select Soccer Rebellion See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (8th)	3–1	71%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (7th)	2–2	28%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Northern Steel Select Soccer Rebellion (5th)	1–2	21%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre

-9

0.00

LLLLL

+1.27

-1.62

6.4

L	Sun Oct 18	at	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (1st)	3–4
L	Sun Oct 18	at	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (1st)	3–4
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Pacesetter SC Red (2nd)	2–3
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (3rd)	1–4
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Cleveland Force Pre- White (4th)	1–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Ohio Premier Academy Dublin Black · Sat Oct 31 at Northern Steel Select Soccer Rebellion · Sun Nov 1 vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Ohio Premier Academy Dublin Black (6th)	2–2	55%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Northern Steel Select Soccer Rebellion (5th)	2–2	27%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (8th)	5–1	88%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre

-35

0.00

LLLLL

+0.98

-0.55

7.9

L	Sat Oct 17	at	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (1st)	0–5
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Pacesetter SC Red (2nd)	0–8
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (3rd)	2–9
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Cleveland Force Pre- White (4th)	2–12
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Northern Steel Select Soccer Rebellion (5th)	0–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Ohio Premier Academy Dublin Black · Sat Oct 31 at Northern Steel Select Soccer Rebellion · Sun Nov 1 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Ohio Premier Academy Dublin Black (6th)	1–3	16%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Northern Steel Select Soccer Rebellion (5th)	1–5	4%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (7th)	1–5	5%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.67 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.