Total Futbol Academy Elite

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Ohio Valley GU09 (2017-2018) · 5 teams · Total Futbol Academy (OH) (all teams)

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2nd

5-1-1 record · 7 played

2.29 points per game

+16 goal diff · 32–16

LWWDWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.0

-1.13 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 03:30 PM

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Total Futbol Academy Elite
2nd · 2.29 PPG

Mercury Pre 1
1st · 3.00 PPG

TFA Harrison Soccer Complex (TSC), TSC Field 1 ↗

14% 11% 75%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 2–4 (expected goals 2.1 for, 4.3 against · 0.53 expected points)

Season so far	Total Futbol Academy Elite	Mercury Pre 1
Position	2nd	1st
Record (W-D-L)	5-1-1	6-0-0
Points per game	2.29	3.00
Goals for / game	4.6	7.5
Goals against / game	2.3	0.5
Clean sheets	1	4
Held scoreless	1	0
Form (recent first)	W D W W L	W W W W W
Biggest win	7–1 at Lexington Sporting Academy Pre	13–0 at FC Pride Elite Pre
Worst loss	0–4 at Mercury Pre 1	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.33	+4.13
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-1.13	-1.39

Already played this season: Fri Aug 28 0–4 at Mercury Pre 1 (L)

Common opponents: Union FC Indy Teal I — we 7–3, 5–5; they 11–0, 2–0. FC Pride Elite Pre — we 2–0, 5–1; they 9–1, 13–0. Lexington Sporting Academy Pre — we 7–1, 6–2; they 6–2.

Game plan

Respect their attack
Mercury Pre 1 score 7.5/game — well above the league's 3.6.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Hard to break down
Mercury Pre 1 concede only 0.5/game with 4 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–4 at Mercury Pre 1.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 14%; a draw (11%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
They arrive in form
Mercury Pre 1 have won 6 straight.
Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Mercury Pre 1 game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Total Futbol Academy Elite – Mercury Pre 1) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 2.00 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Win 2.38 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Draw 2.13 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Loss 2.00 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–4 loss we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

2.0 average finish

1st
2nd 100%
3rd
4th
5th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 1 remaining known games (max 2.38 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Mercury Pre 1	3.00 (+0.71)	1st (2.92)	8 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule

How the results connect

39 chains · 5 teams

Paths of results that link Total Futbol Academy Elite to Mercury Pre 1 through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

8 favour us

1 even

30 favour them

-4.8 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +4.13 · 1st hardest of 4

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Oct 25 03:30 PM	Mercury Pre 1 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +42	Home TFA Harrison Soccer Complex (TSC)	●●●●● Very tough	14%	2–4	0.53	2.07	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Mercury Pre 1

+42

3.00

WWWWW

-1.39

-0.64

100%

1.0

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (4th)	6–2
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Union FC Indy Teal I (3rd)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	FC Pride Elite Pre (5th)	13–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre (5th)	9–1
W	Fri Aug 28	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (2nd)	4–0
W	Sun Aug 16	at	Union FC Indy Teal I (3rd)	11–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Total Futbol Academy Elite · Sun Nov 8 vs Lexington Sporting Academy Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (2nd)	4–2	75%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (4th)	9–1	99%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Total Futbol Academy Elite

+16

2.29

LWWDW

-1.13

+4.13

100%

2.0

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre (5th)	5–1
D	Sun Oct 4	vs	Union FC Indy Teal I (3rd)	5–5
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (4th)	6–2
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (4th)	7–1
L	Fri Aug 28	at	Mercury Pre 1 (1st)	0–4
W	Sat Aug 22	at	FC Pride Elite Pre (5th)	2–0
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Union FC Indy Teal I (3rd)	7–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Mercury Pre 1 See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Mercury Pre 1 (1st)	2–4	14%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Union FC Indy Teal I

1.63

WWWDL

-0.02

—

100%

3.0

Lexington Sporting Academy Pre

-25

0.00

LLLLL

+1.53

-0.70

69%

4.3

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Mercury Pre 1 (1st)	2–6
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (2nd)	2–6
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (2nd)	1–7
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Union FC Indy Teal I (3rd)	2–7
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Union FC Indy Teal I (3rd)	2–8

Next: Sat Nov 7 at FC Pride Elite Pre · Sat Nov 7 at FC Pride Elite Pre · Sun Nov 8 at Mercury Pre 1 See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC Pride Elite Pre (5th)	3–2	51%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC Pride Elite Pre (5th)	3–2	51%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Mercury Pre 1 (1st)	1–9	0%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Pride Elite Pre

-33

0.00

LLLLL

+1.87

-2.62

31%

4.7

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (2nd)	1–5
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Mercury Pre 1 (1st)	0–13
L	Fri Oct 2	vs	Union FC Indy Teal I (3rd)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Mercury Pre 1 (1st)	1–9
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (2nd)	0–2
L	Fri Aug 21	at	Union FC Indy Teal I (3rd)	0–5

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Lexington Sporting Academy Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Lexington Sporting Academy Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (4th)	2–3	34%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (4th)	2–3	34%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.61 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.