FC Pride Elite Pre
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Ohio Valley GU09 (2017-2018) · 5 teams · FC Pride (all teams)
Next game — Sat Nov 7, 01:30 PM
FC Pride Performance Center, Field 1 ↗
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 2–3 (expected goals 2.9 for, 3.5 against · 1.17 expected points)
| Season so far | FC Pride Elite Pre | Lexington Sporting Academy Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-6 | 0-0-5 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.7 | 1.8 |
| Goals against / game | 6.2 | 6.8 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 3 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L L L | L L L L L |
| Biggest win | — | — |
| Worst loss | 0–13 vs Mercury Pre 1 | 2–8 at Union FC Indy Teal I |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -3.11 | -2.62 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +1.87 | +1.53 |
Common opponents: Union FC Indy Teal I — we 0–5, 2–3; they 2–8, 2–7. Total Futbol Academy Elite — we 0–2, 1–5; they 1–7, 2–6. Mercury Pre 1 — we 1–9, 0–13; they 2–6.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Lexington Sporting Academy Pre average 1.8 goals/game (league avg 3.6); blanked in 0 of 5.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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They leak goals — be greedy
Lexington Sporting Academy Pre concede 6.8/game; worst result 2–8 at Union FC Indy Teal I.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–5 at Union FC Indy Teal I, 0–2 vs Total Futbol Academy Elite, 0–13 vs Mercury Pre 1.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 34%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Confidence is low on their side
Lexington Sporting Academy Pre have lost 5 straight (form: LLLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
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What a win does
Lexington Sporting Academy Pre sit 4th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above Lexington Sporting Academy Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Lexington Sporting Academy Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Pride Elite Pre – Lexington Sporting Academy Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.00 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
| Win 0.43 PPG |
4th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 1 | 5th— holds |
| Draw 0.14 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–3 loss we stay 5th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th 34%
- 5th 66%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 0.75 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mercury Pre 1 | 3.00 (+3.00) | 1st (2.92) | 24 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Total Futbol Academy Elite | 2.29 (+2.29) | 2nd (2.07) | 19 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Union FC Indy Teal I | 1.63 (+1.63) | 3rd (1.63) | 14 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Lexington Sporting Academy Pre | 0.00 (+0.00) | 4th (0.42) | Already ahead |
How the results connect
44 chains · 5 teams
Paths of results that link FC Pride Elite Pre to Lexington Sporting Academy Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -2.62 · 4th hardest of 4
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Nov 7 01:30 PM |
Lexington Sporting Academy Pre 4th · 0-0-5 · GD -25 |
Home FC Pride Performance Center |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
2–3 | 1.17 | 0.17 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 04:00 PM |
Lexington Sporting Academy Pre 4th · 0-0-5 · GD -25 |
Home FC Pride Performance Center |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
2–3 | 1.17 | 0.29 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Mercury Pre 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 45 | 3 | +42 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -1.39 | -0.64 | 100% | 1.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Total Futbol Academy Elite · Sun Nov 8 vs Lexington Sporting Academy Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Total Futbol Academy Elite | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 32 | 16 | +16 | 16 | 2.29 | LWWDW | -1.13 | +4.13 | 100% | 2.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Mercury Pre 1 See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Union FC Indy Teal I | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 31 | 31 | +0 | 13 | 1.63 | WWWDL | -0.02 | — | 100% | 3.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 4 | Lexington Sporting Academy Pre | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 34 | -25 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.53 | -0.70 | 66% | 4.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at FC Pride Elite Pre · Sat Nov 7 at FC Pride Elite Pre · Sun Nov 8 at Mercury Pre 1 See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | FC Pride Elite Pre | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 37 | -33 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.87 | -2.62 | 34% | 4.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Lexington Sporting Academy Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Lexington Sporting Academy Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.61 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.