Lexington Sporting Academy Pre

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Ohio Valley GU09 (2017-2018) · 5 teams · Lexington Sporting (all teams)

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4th

0-0-5 record · 5 played

0.00 points per game

-25 goal diff · 9–34

LLLLLlast 5

67% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.3

+1.53 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 7, 01:30 PM

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Lexington Sporting Academy Pre
4th · 0.00 PPG

FC Pride Elite Pre
5th · 0.00 PPG

FC Pride Performance Center, Field 1 ↗ far trip

51% 16% 34%

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 3–2 (expected goals 3.5 for, 2.9 against · 1.67 expected points)

Season so far	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre	FC Pride Elite Pre
Position	4th	5th
Record (W-D-L)	0-0-5	0-0-6
Points per game	0.00	0.00
Goals for / game	1.8	0.7
Goals against / game	6.8	6.2
Clean sheets	0	0
Held scoreless	0	3
Form (recent first)	L L L L L	L L L L L
Biggest win	—	—
Worst loss	2–8 at Union FC Indy Teal I	0–13 vs Mercury Pre 1
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-2.62	-3.11
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+1.53	+1.87

Common opponents: Union FC Indy Teal I — we 2–8, 2–7; they 0–5, 2–3. Total Futbol Academy Elite — we 1–7, 2–6; they 0–2, 1–5. Mercury Pre 1 — we 2–6; they 1–9, 0–13.

Game plan

They struggle to score
FC Pride Elite Pre average 0.7 goals/game (league avg 3.6); blanked in 3 of 6.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
They leak goals — be greedy
FC Pride Elite Pre concede 6.2/game; worst result 0–13 vs Mercury Pre 1.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Swing game — small margins
Win 51% / draw 16% / loss 34%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
Confidence is low on their side
FC Pride Elite Pre have lost 6 straight (form: LLLLL).
Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
Away game
Kickoff 01:30 PM at FC Pride Performance Center.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Pride Elite Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Lexington Sporting Academy Pre – FC Pride Elite Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 0.50 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds
Win 0.50 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds
Draw 0.17 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds
Loss 0.00 PPG	5th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–2 win we stay 4th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

67% top 4

33% below the top 4

4.3 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd
4th 67%
5th 33%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 1.13 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Mercury Pre 1	3.00 (+3.00)	1st (2.92)	24 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Total Futbol Academy Elite	2.29 (+2.29)	2nd (2.07)	19 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	Union FC Indy Teal I	1.63 (+1.63)	3rd (1.63)	14 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule

How the results connect

44 chains · 5 teams

Paths of results that link Lexington Sporting Academy Pre to FC Pride Elite Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

16 favour us

4 even

24 favour them

-0.4 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.70 · 3rd hardest of 4

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Nov 7 01:30 PM	FC Pride Elite Pre 5th · 0-0-6 · GD -33	Away far trip FC Pride Performance Center	●●●○○ Toss-up	51%	3–2	1.67	0.28	Swing game
Sat Nov 7 04:00 PM	FC Pride Elite Pre 5th · 0-0-6 · GD -33	Away far trip FC Pride Performance Center	●●●○○ Toss-up	51%	3–2	1.67	0.48	Swing game
Sun Nov 8 TBD	Mercury Pre 1 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +42	Away	●●●●● Very tough	0%	1–9	0.02	0.42	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Mercury Pre 1

+42

3.00

WWWWW

-1.39

-0.64

100%

1.0

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (4th)	6–2
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Union FC Indy Teal I (3rd)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	FC Pride Elite Pre (5th)	13–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre (5th)	9–1
W	Fri Aug 28	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (2nd)	4–0
W	Sun Aug 16	at	Union FC Indy Teal I (3rd)	11–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Total Futbol Academy Elite · Sun Nov 8 vs Lexington Sporting Academy Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (2nd)	4–2	75%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (4th)	9–1	99%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Total Futbol Academy Elite

+16

2.29

LWWDW

-1.13

+4.13

100%

2.0

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre (5th)	5–1
D	Sun Oct 4	vs	Union FC Indy Teal I (3rd)	5–5
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (4th)	6–2
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (4th)	7–1
L	Fri Aug 28	at	Mercury Pre 1 (1st)	0–4
W	Sat Aug 22	at	FC Pride Elite Pre (5th)	2–0
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Union FC Indy Teal I (3rd)	7–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Mercury Pre 1 See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Mercury Pre 1 (1st)	2–4	14%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Union FC Indy Teal I

1.63

WWWDL

-0.02

—

100%

3.0

Lexington Sporting Academy Pre

-25

0.00

LLLLL

+1.53

-0.70

67%

4.3

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Mercury Pre 1 (1st)	2–6
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (2nd)	2–6
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (2nd)	1–7
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Union FC Indy Teal I (3rd)	2–7
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Union FC Indy Teal I (3rd)	2–8

Next: Sat Nov 7 at FC Pride Elite Pre · Sat Nov 7 at FC Pride Elite Pre · Sun Nov 8 at Mercury Pre 1 See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC Pride Elite Pre (5th)	3–2	51%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC Pride Elite Pre (5th)	3–2	51%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Mercury Pre 1 (1st)	1–9	0%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Pride Elite Pre

-33

0.00

LLLLL

+1.87

-2.62

33%

4.7

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (2nd)	1–5
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Mercury Pre 1 (1st)	0–13
L	Fri Oct 2	vs	Union FC Indy Teal I (3rd)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Mercury Pre 1 (1st)	1–9
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (2nd)	0–2
L	Fri Aug 21	at	Union FC Indy Teal I (3rd)	0–5

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Lexington Sporting Academy Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Lexington Sporting Academy Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (4th)	2–3	34%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (4th)	2–3	34%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.61 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.