Mercury Pre 1
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Ohio Valley GU09 (2017-2018) · 5 teams · Mercury (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 03:30 PM
TFA Harrison Soccer Complex (TSC), TSC Field 1 ↗ far trip
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 4–2 (expected goals 4.3 for, 2.1 against · 2.35 expected points)
| Season so far | Mercury Pre 1 | Total Futbol Academy Elite |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 6-0-0 | 5-1-1 |
| Points per game | 3.00 | 2.29 |
| Goals for / game | 7.5 | 4.6 |
| Goals against / game | 0.5 | 2.3 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W W | W D W W L |
| Biggest win | 13–0 at FC Pride Elite Pre | 7–1 at Lexington Sporting Academy Pre |
| Worst loss | — | 0–4 at Mercury Pre 1 |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +4.13 | +1.33 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -1.39 | -1.13 |
Already played this season: Fri Aug 28 4–0 vs Total Futbol Academy Elite (W)
Common opponents: Union FC Indy Teal I — we 11–0, 2–0; they 7–3, 5–5. FC Pride Elite Pre — we 9–1, 13–0; they 2–0, 5–1. Lexington Sporting Academy Pre — we 6–2; they 7–1, 6–2.
Game plan
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 75% chance; likely score 4–2.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Away game
Kickoff 03:30 PM at TFA Harrison Soccer Complex (TSC).Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Total Futbol Academy Elite game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Mercury Pre 1 – Total Futbol Academy Elite) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.71 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Loss 2.57 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 4–2 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 100%
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
39 chains · 5 teams
Paths of results that link Mercury Pre 1 to Total Futbol Academy Elite through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.64 · 2nd hardest of 4
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 03:30 PM |
Total Futbol Academy Elite 2nd · 5-1-1 · GD +16 |
Away far trip
TFA Harrison Soccer Complex (TSC) |
●●○○○ Lean win | 75% |
4–2 | 2.35 | 2.91 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 8 TBD |
Lexington Sporting Academy Pre 4th · 0-0-5 · GD -25 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 99% |
9–1 | 2.98 | 2.92 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Mercury Pre 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 45 | 3 | +42 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -1.39 | -0.64 | 100% | 1.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Total Futbol Academy Elite · Sun Nov 8 vs Lexington Sporting Academy Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Total Futbol Academy Elite | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 32 | 16 | +16 | 16 | 2.29 | LWWDW | -1.13 | +4.13 | 100% | 2.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Mercury Pre 1 See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Union FC Indy Teal I | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 31 | 31 | +0 | 13 | 1.63 | WWWDL | -0.02 | — | 100% | 3.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 4 | Lexington Sporting Academy Pre | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 34 | -25 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.53 | -0.70 | 66% | 4.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at FC Pride Elite Pre · Sat Nov 7 at FC Pride Elite Pre · Sun Nov 8 at Mercury Pre 1 See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | FC Pride Elite Pre | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 37 | -33 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.87 | -2.62 | 34% | 4.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Lexington Sporting Academy Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Lexington Sporting Academy Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.61 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.