Match Fit Surf Pre- White
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Northeast GU11 · 7 teams · Match Fit Surf (all teams)
Next game — Thu Oct 29, 06:30 PM
Sycamore Sports Complex, Field 1 ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 3.6 for, 1.0 against · 2.65 expected points)
| Season so far | Match Fit Surf Pre- White | PDA South Pre- Blue |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 6-0-0 | 3-2-1 |
| Points per game | 3.00 | 1.83 |
| Goals for / game | 9.2 | 1.5 |
| Goals against / game | 0.3 | 0.7 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W | W D L W |
| Biggest win | 14–0 vs WNY Flash Binghamton Pre | 4–0 vs PDA South Pre- White |
| Worst loss | — | 0–1 vs YMS Pre |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +4.22 | +0.43 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -2.21 | +0.65 |
Game plan
-
Hard to break down
PDA South Pre- Blue concede only 0.7/game with 2 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
-
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 85% chance; likely score 3–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
If Thursday goes…
Where we'd sit after the PDA South Pre- Blue game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Match Fit Surf Pre- White – PDA South Pre- Blue) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.71 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Loss 2.57 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 100%
- 2nd 1%
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
2 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link Match Fit Surf Pre- White to PDA South Pre- Blue through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
3 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.22 · 7th hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu Oct 29 06:30 PM |
PDA South Pre- Blue 3rd · 3-2-1 · GD +5 |
Home Sycamore Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 85% |
3–0 | 2.65 | 2.95 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 14 12:00 PM |
Cherry Hill FC Pre 5th · 1-0-2 · GD -5 |
Home Sycamore Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 98% |
7–1 | 2.96 | 2.95 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 13 03:00 PM |
Delaware FC Pre 4th · 2-1-1 · GD +6 |
Away far trip
Lower Tweeds |
●○○○○ Favorable | 79% |
3–1 | 2.48 | 2.90 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
Keystone Athletic Pre |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 95% |
5–1 | 2.88 | 2.90 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
NLSA Surf Pre 6th · 2-0-4 · GD -13 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 98% |
7–0 | 2.97 | 2.90 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Cherry Hill FC Pre 5th · 1-0-2 · GD -5 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 96% |
6–1 | 2.91 | 2.90 | Bank it |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
PA Rush Pre 2nd · 2-1-0 · GD +5 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 87% |
4–1 | 2.68 | 2.89 | Bank it |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
Delaware FC Pre 4th · 2-1-1 · GD +6 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 86% |
4–1 | 2.67 | 2.87 | Bank it |
| Sat May 15 TBD |
PSA Monmouth Pre 7th · 1-0-6 · GD -35 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 100% |
9–0 | 3.00 | 2.88 | Bank it |
| Sun May 16 01:00 PM |
PA Rush Pre 2nd · 2-1-0 · GD +5 |
Away far trip
Rush Soccer Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 80% |
3–1 | 2.51 | 2.86 | Bank it |
| Sat May 22 09:00 AM |
PDA South Pre- Blue 3rd · 3-2-1 · GD +5 |
Away far trip
Westampton Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
3–1 | 2.48 | 2.83 | Bank it |
| Sun May 23 09:00 AM |
FC Europa Pre |
Home Sycamore Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 95% |
5–1 | 2.88 | 2.84 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Match Fit Surf Pre- White | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 55 | 2 | +53 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWW | -2.21 | -0.22 | 100% | 1.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Thu Oct 29 vs PDA South Pre- Blue · Sat Nov 14 vs Cherry Hill FC Pre · Sat Mar 13 at Delaware FC Pre See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | PA Rush Pre | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 7 | 2.33 | WDW | -0.62 | +0.11 | 98% | 2.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 at PSA Monmouth Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs Reading Rage Surf Pre · Sun Nov 8 vs WNY Flash Binghamton Pre See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | PDA South Pre- Blue | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 11 | 1.83 | WLDW | +0.65 | -0.07 | 97% | 3.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Thu Oct 29 at Match Fit Surf Pre- White · Sun Nov 8 vs West-Mont United Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs PSA Monmouth Pre See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Delaware FC Pre | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 7 | 1.75 | WDWL | -1.17 | +0.19 | 96% | 3.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at NLSA Surf Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs Reading Rage Surf Pre · Sat Dec 5 vs WNY Flash Binghamton Pre See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Cherry Hill FC Pre | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 3 | 1.00 | W | +0.00 | +0.20 | 8% | 5.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs West-Mont United Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs YMS Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs PSA Monmouth Pre See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | NLSA Surf Pre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 6 | 1.00 | WWLLL | +2.39 | -0.01 | 2% | 5.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 vs West-Mont United Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs Delaware FC Pre · Sat Feb 27 at Delaware FC Pre See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | PSA Monmouth Pre | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 38 | -35 | 3 | 0.43 | WLLL | +2.42 | +0.16 | 0% | 6.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 vs PA Rush Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Cherry Hill FC Pre · Sat Nov 14 at PDA South Pre- Blue See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.28 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.