Sting Pre- Robles

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- North Texas GU11 · 10 teams · Sting Soccer Club (all teams)

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8th

2-1-3 record · 6 played

1.17 points per game

+0 goal diff · 8–8

WWLLLlast 5

1% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.7

+0.13 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 05:00 PM

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Sting Pre- Robles
8th · 1.17 PPG

SOLAR PRE- WILCOX
3rd · 2.00 PPG

Railroad Park , Field 10 ↗

20% 25% 55%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–1 (expected goals 0.9 for, 1.6 against · 0.85 expected points)

Season so far	Sting Pre- Robles	SOLAR PRE- WILCOX
Position	8th	3rd
Record (W-D-L)	2-1-3	4-0-2
Points per game	1.17	2.00
Goals for / game	1.3	1.8
Goals against / game	1.3	0.8
Clean sheets	2	3
Held scoreless	3	1
Form (recent first)	L L L W W	W W W L L
Biggest win	4–0 at Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black	6–0 at DKSC Pre- Saavedra
Worst loss	0–4 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Webb	1–3 vs Sting Pre- Lomax
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.01	+0.76
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.13	+0.36

Common opponents: West Side Alliance Pre Tulsa Select — we 1–1; they 1–0. FC Dallas Youth Pre- Webb — we 0–4; they 1–0. OK Energy FC Pre I — we 0–2; they 0–1. Sting Pre- Lomax — we 0–1; they 1–3.

Game plan

Hard to break down
SOLAR PRE- WILCOX concede only 0.8/game with 3 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–4 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Webb, 0–2 vs OK Energy FC Pre I, 0–1 at Sting Pre- Lomax.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 20%; a draw (25%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
They arrive in form
SOLAR PRE- WILCOX have won 3 straight.
Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
Away game
Kickoff 05:00 PM at Railroad Park .
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
DKSC Pre- Saavedra sit 7th on 1.20 PPG; we are on 1.17.
A point moves us above DKSC Pre- Saavedra on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the SOLAR PRE- WILCOX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Sting Pre- Robles – SOLAR PRE- WILCOX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 1.00 PPG	8th— holds	8th— holds	8th— holds
Win 1.43 PPG	5th▲ up 3	7th▲ up 1	8th— holds
Draw 1.14 PPG	8th— holds	7th▲ up 1	8th— holds
Loss 1.00 PPG	8th— holds	8th— holds	8th— holds

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 0–1 loss we finish as high as 7th if every rival drops points, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

1% top 4

99% below the top 4

6.7 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd
4th 1%
5th 6%
6th 40%
7th 29%
8th 23%
9th
10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 1.63 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	OK Energy FC Pre I	2.75 (+1.58)	1st (2.75)	15 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	West Side Alliance Pre Tulsa Select	2.00 (+0.83)	3rd (2.00)	9 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	SOLAR PRE- WILCOX	2.00 (+0.83)	4th (1.99)	9 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Webb	1.80 (+0.63)	2nd (2.00)	8 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5	Sting Pre- Lomax	1.40 (+0.23)	5th (1.66)	A point next game
6	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Falcon	1.20 (+0.03)	8th (1.12)	A point next game
7	DKSC Pre- Saavedra	1.20 (+0.03)	6th (1.24)	A point next game

How the results connect

25 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Sting Pre- Robles to SOLAR PRE- WILCOX through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

5 favour us

5 even

15 favour them

-1.4 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.02 · 4th hardest of 8

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 05:00 PM	SOLAR PRE- WILCOX 3rd · 4-0-2 · GD +6	Away Railroad Park	●●●●● Very tough	20%	0–1	0.85	1.12	Upside
Thu Oct 29 06:00 PM	DKSC Pre- Saavedra 7th · 2-0-3 · GD -7	Home Railroad Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	56%	2–1	1.88	1.22	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

OK Energy FC Pre I

+17

2.75

WWWWW

-0.26

—

100%

1.0

West Side Alliance Pre Tulsa Select

+11

2.00

DWWWL

-0.29

—

99%

3.0

SOLAR PRE- WILCOX

2.00

LLWWW

+0.36

+0.05

82%

3.5

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Ramirez (10th)	2–1
W	Sun Oct 11	at	West Side Alliance Pre Tulsa Select (2nd)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Webb (4th)	1–0
L	Sun Sep 20	at	OK Energy FC Pre I (1st)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Sting Pre- Lomax (5th)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 12	at	DKSC Pre- Saavedra (7th)	6–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sting Pre- Robles · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Falcon See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Sting Pre- Robles (8th)	1–0	55%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Falcon (6th)	2–1	62%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Dallas Youth Pre- Webb

+10

1.80

WLWLW

-0.21

-0.54

89%

2.9

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black (9th)	7–0
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	OK Energy FC Pre I (1st)	1–2
W	Thu Oct 8	at	Sting Pre- Robles (8th)	4–0
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	SOLAR PRE- WILCOX (3rd)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Sting Pre- Lomax (5th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Dallas Texans Pre- Ramirez · Sat Oct 31 at DKSC Pre- Saavedra · Sun Nov 1 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Falcon See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Ramirez (10th)	3–1	85%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	DKSC Pre- Saavedra (7th)	2–1	73%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Falcon (6th)	2–1	62%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting Pre- Lomax

1.40

LWDLW

+0.85

-1.42

26%

4.9

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Sting Pre- Robles (8th)	1–0
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	West Side Alliance Pre Tulsa Select (2nd)	1–2
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	OK Energy FC Pre I (1st)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	SOLAR PRE- WILCOX (3rd)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Webb (4th)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Falcon · Sat Oct 31 vs Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black · Sun Nov 1 at Dallas Texans Pre- Ramirez See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Falcon (6th)	2–1	41%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black (9th)	4–0	93%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Ramirez (10th)	2–1	59%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Dallas Youth Pre- Falcon

1.20

WLLWL

-0.88

+0.78

7.0

L	Sat Oct 17	at	DKSC Pre- Saavedra (7th)	1–3
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black (9th)	8–0
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Sting Pre- Robles (8th)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	West Side Alliance Pre Tulsa Select (2nd)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Ramirez (10th)	4–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sting Pre- Lomax · Sat Oct 31 at SOLAR PRE- WILCOX · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Webb See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Sting Pre- Lomax (5th)	1–2	38%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	SOLAR PRE- WILCOX (3rd)	1–2	20%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Webb (4th)	1–2	21%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

DKSC Pre- Saavedra

-7

1.20

LLWLW

+0.43

-0.69

6.9

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Falcon (6th)	3–1
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	West Side Alliance Pre Tulsa Select (2nd)	0–3
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Ramirez (10th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	OK Energy FC Pre I (1st)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	SOLAR PRE- WILCOX (3rd)	0–6

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black · Thu Oct 29 at Sting Pre- Robles · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Webb See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black (9th)	3–1	80%
·	Thu Oct 29	at	Sting Pre- Robles (8th)	1–2	23%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Webb (4th)	1–2	12%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting Pre- Robles

1.17

WWLLL

+0.13

+0.02

6.7

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Sting Pre- Lomax (5th)	0–1
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	OK Energy FC Pre I (1st)	0–2
L	Thu Oct 8	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Webb (4th)	0–4
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black (9th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Falcon (6th)	3–0
D	Sun Sep 20	at	West Side Alliance Pre Tulsa Select (2nd)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at SOLAR PRE- WILCOX · Thu Oct 29 vs DKSC Pre- Saavedra See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	SOLAR PRE- WILCOX (3rd)	0–1	20%
·	Thu Oct 29	vs	DKSC Pre- Saavedra (7th)	2–1	56%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black

-32

0.50

LLLLL

+0.48

-0.19

9.2

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Webb (4th)	0–7
L	Sun Oct 11	at	OK Energy FC Pre I (1st)	0–7
L	Sat Oct 10	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Falcon (6th)	0–8
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Sting Pre- Robles (8th)	0–4
L	Sun Sep 20	at	West Side Alliance Pre Tulsa Select (2nd)	0–7
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Ramirez (10th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs DKSC Pre- Saavedra · Sat Oct 31 at Sting Pre- Lomax See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	DKSC Pre- Saavedra (7th)	1–3	9%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Sting Pre- Lomax (5th)	0–4	2%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Dallas Texans Pre- Ramirez

-9

0.00

LLLLL

-0.07

+0.79

9.8

L	Sat Oct 17	at	SOLAR PRE- WILCOX (3rd)	1–2
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	OK Energy FC Pre I (1st)	1–4
L	Sat Oct 10	at	West Side Alliance Pre Tulsa Select (2nd)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	DKSC Pre- Saavedra (7th)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black (9th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Falcon (6th)	3–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Webb · Sun Nov 1 vs Sting Pre- Lomax See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Webb (4th)	1–3	6%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Sting Pre- Lomax (5th)	1–2	21%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.91 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.