SOLAR PRE- WILCOX
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- North Texas GU11 · 10 teams · Solar SC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 05:00 PM
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 1–0 (expected goals 1.6 for, 0.9 against · 1.91 expected points)
| Season so far | SOLAR PRE- WILCOX | Sting Pre- Robles |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 8th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-0-2 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per game | 2.00 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / game | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Goals against / game | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 3 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W L L | L L L W W |
| Biggest win | 6–0 at DKSC Pre- Saavedra | 4–0 at Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black |
| Worst loss | 1–3 vs Sting Pre- Lomax | 0–4 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Webb |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.76 | +0.01 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.36 | +0.13 |
Common opponents: Sting Pre- Lomax — we 1–3; they 0–1. OK Energy FC Pre I — we 0–1; they 0–2. FC Dallas Youth Pre- Webb — we 1–0; they 0–4. West Side Alliance Pre Tulsa Select — we 1–0; they 1–1.
Game plan
-
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 at OK Energy FC Pre I.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 55% / draw 25% / loss 20%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
Confidence is low on their side
Sting Pre- Robles have lost 3 straight (form: WWLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
-
What a win does
West Side Alliance Pre Tulsa Select sit 2nd on 2.00 PPG; we are on 2.00.A point moves us above West Side Alliance Pre Tulsa Select on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Sting Pre- Robles game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SOLAR PRE- WILCOX – Sting Pre- Robles) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.14 PPG |
2nd▲ up 1 | 2nd▲ up 1 | 2nd▲ up 1 |
| Win 2.14 PPG |
2nd▲ up 1 | 2nd▲ up 1 | 2nd▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.86 PPG |
3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.71 PPG |
4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–0 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd 22%
- 3rd 24%
- 4th 36%
- 5th 15%
- 6th 2%
- 7th 1%
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 2.25 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OK Energy FC Pre I | 2.75 (+0.75) | 1st (2.75) | 10 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | West Side Alliance Pre Tulsa Select | 2.00 (+0.00) | 3rd (2.00) | A point next game |
How the results connect
25 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link SOLAR PRE- WILCOX to Sting Pre- Robles through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.05 · 3rd hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 05:00 PM |
Sting Pre- Robles 8th · 2-1-3 · GD +0 |
Home Railroad Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 55% |
1–0 | 1.91 | 1.99 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 31 01:00 PM |
FC Dallas Youth Pre- Falcon 6th · 2-0-3 · GD +3 |
Home Fairview Soccer Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 62% |
2–1 | 2.04 | 1.99 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OK Energy FC Pre I | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 6 | +17 | 22 | 2.75 | WWWWW | -0.26 | — | 100% | 1.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | West Side Alliance Pre Tulsa Select | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 16 | 2.00 | DWWWL | -0.29 | — | 99% | 3.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | SOLAR PRE- WILCOX | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 12 | 2.00 | LLWWW | +0.36 | +0.05 | 82% | 3.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sting Pre- Robles · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Falcon See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | FC Dallas Youth Pre- Webb | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 4 | +10 | 9 | 1.80 | WLWLW | -0.21 | -0.54 | 89% | 2.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Dallas Texans Pre- Ramirez · Sat Oct 31 at DKSC Pre- Saavedra · Sun Nov 1 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Falcon See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Sting Pre- Lomax | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 7 | 1.40 | LWDLW | +0.85 | -1.42 | 27% | 4.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Falcon · Sat Oct 31 vs Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black · Sun Nov 1 at Dallas Texans Pre- Ramirez See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | FC Dallas Youth Pre- Falcon | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 6 | 1.20 | WLLWL | -0.88 | +0.78 | 2% | 7.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sting Pre- Lomax · Sat Oct 31 at SOLAR PRE- WILCOX · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Webb See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | DKSC Pre- Saavedra | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 6 | 1.20 | LLWLW | +0.43 | -0.69 | 1% | 6.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black · Thu Oct 29 at Sting Pre- Robles · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Webb See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Sting Pre- Robles | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 8 | +0 | 7 | 1.17 | WWLLL | +0.13 | +0.02 | 1% | 6.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at SOLAR PRE- WILCOX · Thu Oct 29 vs DKSC Pre- Saavedra See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 34 | -32 | 3 | 0.50 | LLLLL | +0.48 | -0.19 | 0% | 9.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs DKSC Pre- Saavedra · Sat Oct 31 at Sting Pre- Lomax See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | Dallas Texans Pre- Ramirez | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | -0.07 | +0.79 | 0% | 9.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Webb · Sun Nov 1 vs Sting Pre- Lomax See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.91 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.