SUSA FC Pre ll

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- New England GU12 · 9 teams · SUSA FC (all teams)

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2nd

3-1-1 record · 5 played

2.00 points per game

+4 goal diff · 6–2

DWWLWlast 5

96% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.4

+0.36 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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SUSA FC Pre ll
2nd · 2.00 PPG

Connecticut FC United Pre ll
8th · 0.00 PPG

The SUSA Orlin & Cohen Sports Complex, field 2B ↗

63% 20% 17%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.1 for, 1.0 against · 2.10 expected points)

Season so far	SUSA FC Pre ll	Connecticut FC United Pre ll
Position	2nd	8th
Record (W-D-L)	3-1-1	0-0-1
Points per game	2.00	0.00
Goals for / game	1.2	3.0
Goals against / game	0.4	4.0
Clean sheets	3	0
Held scoreless	2	0
Form (recent first)	W L W W D	L
Biggest win	3–0 vs FC Stars Marlboro Pre- II	—
Worst loss	0–1 at Select South Pre- II	3–4 vs World Class FC Pre- ll
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.56	-0.27
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.36	+0.16

Common opponents: World Class FC Pre- ll — we 0–0; they 3–4.

Game plan

Respect their attack
Connecticut FC United Pre ll score 3.0/game — well above the league's 1.6.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
They leak goals — be greedy
Connecticut FC United Pre ll concede 4.0/game; worst result 3–4 vs World Class FC Pre- ll.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–0 at World Class FC Pre- ll, 0–1 at Select South Pre- II.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Swing game — small margins
Win 63% / draw 20% / loss 17%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.
Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Connecticut FC United Pre ll game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SUSA FC Pre ll – Connecticut FC United Pre ll) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.17 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	3rd▼ down 1
Win 2.17 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	3rd▼ down 1
Draw 1.83 PPG	4th▼ down 2	3rd▼ down 1	4th▼ down 2
Loss 1.67 PPG	4th▼ down 2	4th▼ down 2	5th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–0 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

9% finish 1st

96% top 4

4% below the top 4

2.4 average finish

1st 9%
2nd 59%
3rd 20%
4th 8%
5th 3%
6th 1%
7th <1%
8th
9th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.69 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	FC Stars Lancaster Pre- II	2.40 (+0.40)	1st (2.35)	29 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection

How the results connect

1 chain · 3 teams

Paths of results that link SUSA FC Pre ll to Connecticut FC United Pre ll through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us

0 favour them

+1.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

1 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.29 · 9th hardest of 9

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 09:00 AM	Connecticut FC United Pre ll 8th · 0-0-1 · GD -1	Home The SUSA Orlin & Cohen Sports Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	63%	2–0	2.10	2.02	Swing game
Sun Oct 25 08:00 AM	FSA FC Pre- ll 7th · 0-1-2 · GD -6	Home The SUSA Orlin & Cohen Sports Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	68%	1–0	2.24	2.05	Swing game
Sun Nov 1 TBD	East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II 9th · 0-0-5 · GD -13	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	78%	2–0	2.51	2.11	Bank it
Sun Nov 15 04:00 PM	FSA FC Pre- ll 7th · 0-1-2 · GD -6	Away far trip FSA-Farmington Sports Arena	●●○○○ Lean win	60%	1–0	2.06	2.10	Swing game
Sat Mar 20 TBD	FC Stars Lancaster Pre- II 1st · 4-0-1 · GD +14	Away	●●●●● Very tough	21%	0–1	0.91	1.98	Upside
Sun Mar 21 TBD	FC Stars Marlboro Pre- II 5th · 2-2-2 · GD +0	Away	●●●○○ Toss-up	48%	1–0	1.70	1.96	Swing game
Sat Apr 10 TBD	Connecticut FC United Pre ll 8th · 0-0-1 · GD -1	Away	●●●○○ Toss-up	55%	1–1	1.87	1.95	Swing game
Sat Apr 17 TBD	Select South Pre- II 3rd · 2-2-0 · GD +3	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	43%	1–0	1.62	1.92	Swing game
Sun Apr 18 TBD	Scorpions SC Pre- ll 6th · 1-2-2 · GD -3	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	62%	1–0	2.07	1.93	Swing game
Sat Apr 24 TBD	World Class FC Pre- ll 4th · 2-2-0 · GD +2	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	49%	1–0	1.75	1.92	Swing game
Sat May 1 08:00 AM	East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II 9th · 0-0-5 · GD -13	Away far trip East Meadow Field of Dreams	●●○○○ Lean win	72%	1–0	2.37	1.95	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

FC Stars Lancaster Pre- II

+14

2.40

WWLWW

-0.39

-0.14

100%

1.2

W	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Stars Marlboro Pre- II (5th)	3–0
W	Sun Oct 4	at	East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II (9th)	4–0
L	Sat Oct 3	at	SUSA FC Pre ll (2nd)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Scorpions SC Pre- ll (6th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	FSA FC Pre- ll (7th)	4–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Select South Pre- II · Sat Nov 7 at World Class FC Pre- ll · Sun Nov 8 at Connecticut FC United Pre ll See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Select South Pre- II (3rd)	2–0	64%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	World Class FC Pre- ll (4th)	2–1	62%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Connecticut FC United Pre ll (8th)	3–1	77%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	FC Stars Marlboro Pre- II (5th)	2–0	77%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Scorpions SC Pre- ll (6th)	3–1	76%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Select South Pre- II (3rd)	1–1	56%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	SUSA FC Pre ll (2nd)	1–0	52%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II (9th)	3–0	94%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Connecticut FC United Pre ll (8th)	3–1	85%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	World Class FC Pre- ll (4th)	2–0	70%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	FSA FC Pre- ll (7th)	3–0	82%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SUSA FC Pre ll

2.00

DWWLW

+0.36

-0.29

96%

2.4

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Scorpions SC Pre- ll (6th)	1–0
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Select South Pre- II (3rd)	0–1
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	FC Stars Marlboro Pre- II (5th)	3–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC Stars Lancaster Pre- II (1st)	2–1
D	Sun Sep 13	at	World Class FC Pre- ll (4th)	0–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Connecticut FC United Pre ll · Sun Oct 25 vs FSA FC Pre- ll · Sun Nov 1 vs East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Connecticut FC United Pre ll (8th)	2–0	63%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	FSA FC Pre- ll (7th)	1–0	68%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II (9th)	2–0	78%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	FSA FC Pre- ll (7th)	1–0	60%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	FC Stars Lancaster Pre- II (1st)	0–1	21%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	FC Stars Marlboro Pre- II (5th)	1–0	48%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Connecticut FC United Pre ll (8th)	1–1	55%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Select South Pre- II (3rd)	1–0	43%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Scorpions SC Pre- ll (6th)	1–0	62%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	World Class FC Pre- ll (4th)	1–0	49%
·	Sat May 1	at	East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II (9th)	1–0	72%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Select South Pre- II

2.00

DDWW

-0.32

+0.02

78%

3.6

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II (9th)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	SUSA FC Pre ll (2nd)	1–0
D	Tue Oct 6	vs	Scorpions SC Pre- ll (6th)	3–3
D	Sat Sep 12	at	FC Stars Marlboro Pre- II (5th)	0–0

Next: Sat Sep 26 vs World Class FC Pre- ll · Sat Oct 24 at FC Stars Lancaster Pre- II · Sat Oct 31 at Scorpions SC Pre- ll See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 26 (no score yet)	vs	World Class FC Pre- ll (4th)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC Stars Lancaster Pre- II (1st)	0–2	16%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Scorpions SC Pre- ll (6th)	1–1	48%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Connecticut FC United Pre ll (8th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	FC Stars Marlboro Pre- II (5th)	1–1	51%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	FC Stars Lancaster Pre- II (1st)	1–1	21%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	FSA FC Pre- ll (7th)	1–0	57%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	World Class FC Pre- ll (4th)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Connecticut FC United Pre ll (8th)	2–1	49%
·	Sat Mar 27	vs	FSA FC Pre- ll (7th)	2–0	65%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	SUSA FC Pre ll (2nd)	0–1	25%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II (9th)	2–0	71%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

World Class FC Pre- ll

2.00

DWWD

-0.51

+0.12

61%

4.2

D	Sat Oct 17	vs	FSA FC Pre- ll (7th)	1–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Connecticut FC United Pre ll (8th)	4–3
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II (9th)	1–0
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	SUSA FC Pre ll (2nd)	0–0

Next: Sat Sep 26 at Select South Pre- II · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Stars Lancaster Pre- II · Sun Nov 8 vs FC Stars Marlboro Pre- II See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 26 (no score yet)	at	Select South Pre- II (3rd)	1–1	28%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC Stars Lancaster Pre- II (1st)	1–2	18%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	FC Stars Marlboro Pre- II (5th)	1–1	47%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Scorpions SC Pre- ll (6th)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Select South Pre- II (3rd)	1–1	35%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Scorpions SC Pre- ll (6th)	2–1	53%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II (9th)	1–0	68%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	FC Stars Marlboro Pre- II (5th)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	FC Stars Lancaster Pre- II (1st)	0–2	13%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	SUSA FC Pre ll (2nd)	0–1	22%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Connecticut FC United Pre ll (8th)	2–1	53%
·	Sat May 15	at	FSA FC Pre- ll (7th)	1–1	53%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Stars Marlboro Pre- II

1.33

DWWLL

+0.03

-0.02

31%

5.2

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	FC Stars Lancaster Pre- II (1st)	0–3
L	Sun Oct 4	at	SUSA FC Pre ll (2nd)	0–3
W	Sat Oct 3	at	East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II (9th)	4–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	FSA FC Pre- ll (7th)	3–0
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Scorpions SC Pre- ll (6th)	3–3
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	Select South Pre- II (3rd)	0–0

Next: Sat Nov 7 at Connecticut FC United Pre ll · Sun Nov 8 at World Class FC Pre- ll · Sat Feb 27 at FC Stars Lancaster Pre- II See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Connecticut FC United Pre ll (8th)	2–2	39%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	World Class FC Pre- ll (4th)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	FC Stars Lancaster Pre- II (1st)	0–2	9%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Select South Pre- II (3rd)	1–1	25%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Scorpions SC Pre- ll (6th)	2–2	39%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II (9th)	2–0	75%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	SUSA FC Pre ll (2nd)	0–1	25%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	World Class FC Pre- ll (4th)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Connecticut FC United Pre ll (8th)	2–1	50%
·	Sun May 16	at	FSA FC Pre- ll (7th)	1–1	51%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Scorpions SC Pre- ll

-3

1.00

DLDWL

+0.16

-0.07

17%

5.9

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	SUSA FC Pre ll (2nd)	0–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II (9th)	3–0
D	Tue Oct 6	at	Select South Pre- II (3rd)	3–3
L	Sun Sep 20	at	FC Stars Lancaster Pre- II (1st)	0–5
D	Sat Sep 19	at	FC Stars Marlboro Pre- II (5th)	3–3

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Select South Pre- II · Sat Nov 14 vs Connecticut FC United Pre ll · Sun Nov 15 vs World Class FC Pre- ll See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Select South Pre- II (3rd)	1–1	29%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Connecticut FC United Pre ll (8th)	2–2	46%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	World Class FC Pre- ll (4th)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	FC Stars Lancaster Pre- II (1st)	1–3	11%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	FC Stars Marlboro Pre- II (5th)	2–2	40%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Connecticut FC United Pre ll (8th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	World Class FC Pre- ll (4th)	1–2	26%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	FSA FC Pre- ll (7th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II (9th)	2–1	67%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	SUSA FC Pre ll (2nd)	0–1	17%
·	Sat May 1	at	FSA FC Pre- ll (7th)	2–1	48%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FSA FC Pre- ll

-6

0.33

LLD

+0.56

-0.04

7.5

D	Sat Oct 17	at	World Class FC Pre- ll (4th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	FC Stars Marlboro Pre- II (5th)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 19	at	FC Stars Lancaster Pre- II (1st)	1–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II · Sun Oct 25 at SUSA FC Pre ll · Sat Oct 31 vs Connecticut FC United Pre ll See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II (9th)	1–1	51%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	SUSA FC Pre ll (2nd)	0–1	11%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Connecticut FC United Pre ll (8th)	1–2	31%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II (9th)	1–0	59%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	SUSA FC Pre ll (2nd)	0–1	15%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Select South Pre- II (3rd)	0–1	20%
·	Sat Mar 27	at	Select South Pre- II (3rd)	0–2	14%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Scorpions SC Pre- ll (6th)	1–2	23%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	FC Stars Lancaster Pre- II (1st)	0–3	7%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Scorpions SC Pre- ll (6th)	1–2	31%
·	Sat May 15	vs	World Class FC Pre- ll (4th)	1–1	23%
·	Sun May 16	vs	FC Stars Marlboro Pre- II (5th)	1–1	27%
·	Sat May 22	at	Connecticut FC United Pre ll (8th)	1–2	22%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Connecticut FC United Pre ll

-1

0.00

+0.16

+0.01

15%

6.1

Sat Oct 3

World Class FC Pre- ll (4th)

3–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at SUSA FC Pre ll · Sun Oct 25 at East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II · Sat Oct 31 at FSA FC Pre- ll See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	SUSA FC Pre ll (2nd)	0–2	17%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II (9th)	2–1	69%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	FSA FC Pre- ll (7th)	2–1	49%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC Stars Marlboro Pre- II (5th)	2–2	41%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	FC Stars Lancaster Pre- II (1st)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Scorpions SC Pre- ll (6th)	2–2	36%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Select South Pre- II (3rd)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Scorpions SC Pre- ll (6th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Select South Pre- II (3rd)	1–2	30%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	SUSA FC Pre ll (2nd)	1–1	23%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	FC Stars Lancaster Pre- II (1st)	1–3	6%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	FC Stars Marlboro Pre- II (5th)	1–2	31%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	World Class FC Pre- ll (4th)	1–2	26%
·	Sat May 15	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II (9th)	2–0	77%
·	Sat May 22	vs	FSA FC Pre- ll (7th)	2–1	60%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II

-13

0.00

LLLLL

+0.36

+0.08

8.9

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Select South Pre- II (3rd)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Scorpions SC Pre- ll (6th)	0–3
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	FC Stars Lancaster Pre- II (1st)	0–4
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC Stars Marlboro Pre- II (5th)	1–4
L	Sat Sep 19	at	World Class FC Pre- ll (4th)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FSA FC Pre- ll · Sun Oct 25 vs Connecticut FC United Pre ll · Sun Nov 1 at SUSA FC Pre ll See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FSA FC Pre- ll (7th)	1–1	24%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Connecticut FC United Pre ll (8th)	1–2	14%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	SUSA FC Pre ll (2nd)	0–2	5%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	FSA FC Pre- ll (7th)	0–1	18%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	FC Stars Marlboro Pre- II (5th)	0–2	9%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	FC Stars Lancaster Pre- II (1st)	0–3	1%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	World Class FC Pre- ll (4th)	0–1	12%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Scorpions SC Pre- ll (6th)	1–2	15%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Select South Pre- II (3rd)	0–2	10%
·	Sat May 1	vs	SUSA FC Pre ll (2nd)	0–1	8%
·	Sat May 15	at	Connecticut FC United Pre ll (8th)	0–2	10%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.61 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.