FC Stars Lancaster Pre- II
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- New England GU12 · 9 teams · FC Stars (all teams)
Next game — Sat Nov 7, TBD
Venue TBD
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 2.0 for, 1.0 against · 1.99 expected points)
| Season so far | FC Stars Lancaster Pre- II | World Class FC Pre- ll |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-1-1 | 2-2-0 |
| Points per game | 2.17 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / game | 3.0 | 1.5 |
| Goals against / game | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | D W W L W | D W W D |
| Biggest win | 5–0 vs Scorpions SC Pre- ll | 1–0 vs East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II |
| Worst loss | 1–2 at SUSA FC Pre ll | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.44 | +0.17 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.27 | -0.50 |
Common opponents: FSA FC Pre- ll — we 4–1; they 1–1. SUSA FC Pre ll — we 1–2; they 0–0. East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II — we 4–0; they 1–0.
Game plan
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 59% / draw 21% / loss 19%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
Away game
Kickoff TBD at TBD.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the World Class FC Pre- ll game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Stars Lancaster Pre- II – World Class FC Pre- ll) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 2.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 2.29 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Loss 1.86 PPG |
2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 84%
- 2nd 12%
- 3rd 4%
- 4th 1%
- 5th <1%
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
11 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link FC Stars Lancaster Pre- II to World Class FC Pre- ll through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.17 · 8th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Nov 7 TBD |
World Class FC Pre- ll 2nd · 2-2-0 · GD +2 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 59% |
1–1 | 1.99 | 2.14 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 TBD |
Connecticut FC United Pre ll 7th · 0-1-1 · GD -1 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 71% |
2–1 | 2.28 | 2.16 | Bank it |
| Sat Feb 27 TBD |
FC Stars Marlboro Pre- II 5th · 2-2-2 · GD +0 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 75% |
2–1 | 2.40 | 2.19 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 6 TBD |
Scorpions SC Pre- ll 6th · 1-2-2 · GD -3 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 74% |
3–1 | 2.36 | 2.20 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 7 TBD |
Select South Pre- II 4th · 2-3-0 · GD +3 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
1–1 | 1.78 | 2.16 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
SUSA FC Pre ll 3rd · 3-2-1 · GD +4 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
1–0 | 1.82 | 2.14 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II 9th · 0-0-5 · GD -13 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 93% |
3–0 | 2.85 | 2.19 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Connecticut FC United Pre ll 7th · 0-1-1 · GD -1 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 79% |
3–1 | 2.50 | 2.21 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
World Class FC Pre- ll 2nd · 2-2-0 · GD +2 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
2–0 | 2.21 | 2.21 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 25 11:30 AM |
FSA FC Pre- ll 8th · 0-1-2 · GD -6 |
Away far trip
FSA-Farmington Sports Arena |
●○○○○ Favorable | 80% |
2–0 | 2.53 | 2.23 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Stars Lancaster Pre- II | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 4 | +14 | 13 | 2.17 | WLWWD | -0.27 | -0.17 | 100% | 1.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at World Class FC Pre- ll · Sun Nov 8 at Connecticut FC United Pre ll · Sat Feb 27 vs FC Stars Marlboro Pre- II See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | World Class FC Pre- ll | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 8 | 2.00 | DWWD | -0.50 | +0.09 | 60% | 4.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 at Select South Pre- II · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Stars Lancaster Pre- II · Sun Nov 8 vs FC Stars Marlboro Pre- II See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | SUSA FC Pre ll | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 11 | 1.83 | WWLWD | +0.24 | -0.30 | 94% | 2.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FSA FC Pre- ll · Sun Nov 1 vs East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II · Sun Nov 15 at FSA FC Pre- ll See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Select South Pre- II | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 9 | 1.80 | DDWWD | +0.04 | -0.13 | 84% | 3.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 vs World Class FC Pre- ll · Sat Oct 31 at Scorpions SC Pre- ll · Sun Nov 15 vs Connecticut FC United Pre ll See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | FC Stars Marlboro Pre- II | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 10 | +0 | 8 | 1.33 | DWWLL | -0.02 | -0.02 | 26% | 5.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at Connecticut FC United Pre ll · Sun Nov 8 at World Class FC Pre- ll · Sat Feb 27 at FC Stars Lancaster Pre- II See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Scorpions SC Pre- ll | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 5 | 1.00 | DLDWL | +0.12 | -0.07 | 15% | 6.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Select South Pre- II · Sat Nov 14 vs Connecticut FC United Pre ll · Sun Nov 15 vs World Class FC Pre- ll See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Connecticut FC United Pre ll | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 1 | 0.50 | LD | +0.32 | -0.06 | 21% | 5.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II · Sat Oct 31 at FSA FC Pre- ll · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Stars Marlboro Pre- II See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | FSA FC Pre- ll | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 1 | 0.33 | LLD | +0.50 | -0.04 | 1% | 7.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II · Sun Oct 25 at SUSA FC Pre ll · Sat Oct 31 vs Connecticut FC United Pre ll See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.33 | +0.07 | 0% | 8.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FSA FC Pre- ll · Sun Oct 25 vs Connecticut FC United Pre ll · Sun Nov 1 at SUSA FC Pre ll See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.55 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.