SFFA Pre
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Florida GU11 · 8 teams · South Florida Football Academy (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 31, 10:00 AM
Canyon District Park, Field 3 ↗
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.2 for, 1.8 against · 1.00 expected points)
| Season so far | SFFA Pre | Team Boca Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 7th | 1st |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-1-3 | 4-1-0 |
| Points per game | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| Goals for / game | 1.2 | 2.6 |
| Goals against / game | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W L L L D | W D W W W |
| Biggest win | 3–1 vs ACF Sunrise Pre | 4–1 at Fort Lauderdale United FC Pre |
| Worst loss | 0–2 at Cape Coral SA Pre | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.28 | +0.71 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.31 | -0.45 |
Common opponents: Athletic Club Florida Miami Pre — we 2–2; they 1–0. AC Florida West Pre — we 1–2; they 1–1. Fort Lauderdale United FC Pre — we 0–1; they 4–1. ACF Sunrise Pre — we 3–1; they 5–3.
Game plan
-
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–2 at Cape Coral SA Pre, 0–1 at Fort Lauderdale United FC Pre.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
-
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 26%; a draw (23%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
-
What a win does
Fort Lauderdale United FC Pre sit 6th on 1.13 PPG; we are on 0.80.A point moves us above Fort Lauderdale United FC Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Team Boca Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SFFA Pre – Team Boca Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 0.83 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 7th— holds |
| Win 1.17 PPG |
5th▲ up 2 | 5th▲ up 2 | 5th▲ up 2 |
| Draw 0.83 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 7th— holds |
| Loss 0.67 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 7th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 7th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd <1%
- 4th 2%
- 5th 48%
- 6th 26%
- 7th 21%
- 8th 2%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.21 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Boca Pre | 2.60 (+1.80) | 2nd (2.02) | 33 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
| 2 | Cape Coral SA Pre | 2.33 (+1.53) | 1st (2.27) | 29 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Athletic Club Florida Pre | 1.75 (+0.95) | 4th (1.88) | 21 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 4 | Athletic Club Florida Miami Pre | 1.60 (+0.80) | 3rd (1.89) | 19 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 5 | AC Florida West Pre | 1.17 (+0.37) | 7th (0.93) | 13 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection |
| 6 | Fort Lauderdale United FC Pre | 1.13 (+0.33) | 6th (0.95) | A point next game |
How the results connect
21 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link SFFA Pre to Team Boca Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.25 · 2nd hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 31 10:00 AM |
Team Boca Pre 1st · 4-1-0 · GD +7 |
Home Canyon District Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
1–1 | 1.00 | 0.83 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 11:00 AM |
Athletic Club Florida Miami Pre 4th · 2-2-1 · GD +10 |
Away far trip
Miami Dade College |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
1–2 | 0.60 | 0.80 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 01:00 PM |
Athletic Club Florida Pre 3rd · 2-1-1 · GD +8 |
Away far trip
Nob Hill Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
1–2 | 0.66 | 0.78 | Upside |
| Sun Jan 31 10:00 AM |
Athletic Club Florida Pre 3rd · 2-1-1 · GD +8 |
Home Canyon District Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–2 | 0.89 | 0.79 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 10:00 AM |
Fort Lauderdale United FC Pre 6th · 3-0-5 · GD -12 |
Home Canyon District Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 55% |
2–1 | 1.85 | 0.90 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 4 12:00 PM |
Cape Coral SA Pre 2nd · 4-2-0 · GD +17 |
Home Canyon District Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
1–2 | 0.64 | 0.88 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 04:30 PM |
ACF Sunrise Pre 8th · 0-0-5 · GD -17 |
Away far trip
Nob Hill Soccer Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
2–1 | 1.89 | 0.96 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 11 10:00 AM |
AC Florida West Pre 5th · 2-1-3 · GD -11 |
Home Canyon District Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
2–1 | 1.89 | 1.03 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 03:00 PM |
Team Boca Pre 1st · 4-1-0 · GD +7 |
Away Fau Glades |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
1–2 | 0.78 | 1.01 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Boca Pre | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 13 | 2.60 | WWWDW | -0.45 | +0.11 | 99% | 2.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at SFFA Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Athletic Club Florida Pre · Sat Jan 23 at Athletic Club Florida Miami Pre See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Cape Coral SA Pre | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 24 | 7 | +17 | 14 | 2.33 | WWDDW | -0.33 | -0.10 | 100% | 1.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs ACF Sunrise Pre · Sun Nov 8 vs AC Florida West Pre · Sat Jan 30 vs Team Boca Pre See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Athletic Club Florida Pre | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 7 | 1.75 | LWDW | -0.18 | -0.11 | 98% | 3.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Fri Nov 6 vs Athletic Club Florida Miami Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Team Boca Pre · Sun Nov 8 vs SFFA Pre See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Athletic Club Florida Miami Pre | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 8 | 1.60 | LDWWD | -0.01 | -0.21 | 99% | 2.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Fri Nov 6 at Athletic Club Florida Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs SFFA Pre · Sat Dec 5 at ACF Sunrise Pre See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | AC Florida West Pre | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 7 | 1.17 | LLWDW | +0.17 | +0.20 | 1% | 6.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Aug 23 vs ACF Sunrise Pre · Sun Nov 8 at Cape Coral SA Pre · Sun Jan 10 vs Athletic Club Florida Pre See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Fort Lauderdale United FC Pre | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 9 | 1.13 | WLLLL | +0.06 | +0.41 | 0% | 6.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 at ACF Sunrise Pre · Sat Jan 30 vs Athletic Club Florida Pre · Sun Jan 31 vs Athletic Club Florida Miami Pre See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | SFFA Pre | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 4 | 0.80 | DLLLW | -0.31 | +0.25 | 3% | 5.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Team Boca Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Athletic Club Florida Miami Pre · Sun Nov 8 at Athletic Club Florida Pre See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | ACF Sunrise Pre | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 24 | -17 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.43 | +0.25 | 0% | 7.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Aug 23 at AC Florida West Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Cape Coral SA Pre · Sun Nov 8 vs Fort Lauderdale United FC Pre See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.29 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.