SWFL PREMIER FC PRE

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Florida GU11 · 8 teams · Florida Premier FC (all teams)

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5th

1-0-1 record · 2 played

1.50 points per game

-1 goal diff · 4–5

LWlast 2

66% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.1

+1.20 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 7, 11:30 AM

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SWFL PREMIER FC PRE
5th · 1.50 PPG

Florida Premier FC PRE
3rd · 1.67 PPG

Lakewood Ranch Park, Field 9 SOUTH ↗

55% 19% 26%

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.5 for, 1.7 against · 1.84 expected points)

Season so far	SWFL PREMIER FC PRE	Florida Premier FC PRE
Position	5th	3rd
Record (W-D-L)	1-0-1	3-1-2
Points per game	1.50	1.67
Goals for / game	2.0	1.7
Goals against / game	2.5	2.5
Clean sheets	0	0
Held scoreless	0	1
Form (recent first)	W L	W W L W L
Biggest win	2–1 vs Jacksonville FC Pre	4–2 vs Sporting SA JAX Pre
Worst loss	2–4 at Florida Kraze Krush Pre	1–8 at Florida Kraze Krush Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.04	-0.47
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+1.20	+0.15

Common opponents: Florida Kraze Krush Pre — we 2–4; they 1–8. Jacksonville FC Pre — we 2–1; they 0–2, 2–1.

Game plan

Swing game — small margins
Win 55% / draw 19% / loss 26%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
What a win does
Jacksonville FC Pre sit 4th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.50.
A point moves us above Jacksonville FC Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Florida Premier FC PRE game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SWFL PREMIER FC PRE – Florida Premier FC PRE) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.00 PPG	3rd▲ up 2	3rd▲ up 2	3rd▲ up 2
Win 2.00 PPG	3rd▲ up 2	3rd▲ up 2	3rd▲ up 2
Draw 1.33 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	6th▼ down 1
Loss 1.00 PPG	6th▼ down 1	5th— holds	6th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

1% finish 1st

66% top 4

34% below the top 4

4.1 average finish

1st 1%
2nd 3%
3rd 29%
4th 33%
5th 27%
6th 6%
7th 1%
8th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.79 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Sporting SA JAX Pre	3.00 (+1.50)	2nd (2.32)	39 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection
2	Florida Kraze Krush Pre	2.40 (+0.90)	1st (2.40)	31 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
3	Florida Premier FC PRE	1.67 (+0.17)	5th (1.41)	A point next game
4	Jacksonville FC Pre	1.50 (+0.00)	3rd (1.64)	A point next game

How the results connect

9 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link SWFL PREMIER FC PRE to Florida Premier FC PRE through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

6 favour us

2 even

1 favour them

+2.3 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

9 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.18 · 7th hardest of 8

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 17 02:30 PM no score posted	Sporting SA JAX Pre 7th · 1-1-4 · GD -5	Home Lakewood Ranch Park	●●○○○ Lean win	59%	2–1	1.97	1.66	Swing game
Sat Nov 7 11:30 AM	Florida Premier FC PRE 3rd · 3-1-2 · GD -5	Home Lakewood Ranch Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	55%	2–1	1.84	1.70	Swing game
Sun Dec 6 10:30 AM	Sporting SA JAX Pre 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +9	Away far trip Losco Park	●●●●● Very tough	15%	1–2	0.62	1.48	Upside
Sat Dec 12 09:00 AM	Florida Tropics Academy Pre 8th · 1-0-4 · GD -12	Away far trip John McGee Park	●●○○○ Lean win	66%	2–1	2.15	1.60	Swing game
Sun Dec 13 11:30 AM	Tampa Bay United Pre 6th · 2-0-3 · GD -7	Home Lakewood Ranch Park	●●○○○ Lean win	64%	2–1	2.10	1.67	Swing game
Sat Jan 9 12:30 PM	Florida Tropics Academy Pre 8th · 1-0-4 · GD -12	Home Lakewood Ranch Park	●●○○○ Lean win	75%	2–1	2.38	1.76	Bank it
Sat Jan 23 11:00 AM	Tampa Bay United Pre 6th · 2-0-3 · GD -7	Away far trip Ed Radice Sports Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	55%	2–1	1.85	1.77	Swing game
Sat Jan 30 02:30 PM	Jacksonville FC Pre 4th · 3-0-3 · GD +7	Away far trip Patton Park	●●●●● Very tough	25%	1–2	0.92	1.68	Upside
Sun Jan 31 10:00 AM	Sporting SA JAX Pre 7th · 1-1-4 · GD -5	Away far trip Veterans Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	50%	1–1	1.71	1.69	Swing game
Sat Feb 27 01:30 PM	Florida Premier FC PRE 3rd · 3-1-2 · GD -5	Away far trip Starkey Ranch District Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	45%	2–1	1.54	1.67	Swing game
Sat Apr 3 03:30 PM	Sporting SA JAX Pre 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +9	Home Lakewood Ranch Park	●●●●● Very tough	22%	1–2	0.85	1.61	Upside
Sun Apr 4 12:00 PM	Florida Kraze Krush Pre 2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +14	Home Lakewood Ranch Park	●●●●● Very tough	21%	2–3	0.77	1.55	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Sporting SA JAX Pre

3.00

WWW

-0.09

-0.14

100%

1.7

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Florida Kraze Krush Pre (2nd)	3–2
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Tampa Bay United Pre (6th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Florida Tropics Academy Pre (8th)	4–0

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Jacksonville FC Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Florida Tropics Academy Pre · Sun Nov 8 at Tampa Bay United Pre See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Jacksonville FC Pre (4th)	2–1	60%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Florida Tropics Academy Pre (8th)	3–0	84%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Tampa Bay United Pre (6th)	2–0	75%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Florida Premier FC PRE (3rd)	3–1	77%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	SWFL PREMIER FC PRE (5th)	2–1	69%
·	Sat Jan 9	at	Sporting SA JAX Pre (7th)	2–0	71%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Florida Kraze Krush Pre (2nd)	2–2	35%
·	Fri Apr 2	at	Jacksonville FC Pre (4th)	2–1	49%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	SWFL PREMIER FC PRE (5th)	2–1	59%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Florida Premier FC PRE (3rd)	2–1	69%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Sporting SA JAX Pre (7th)	2–0	78%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Florida Kraze Krush Pre

+14

2.40

WWWWL

+0.20

-0.45

100%

1.4

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Sporting SA JAX Pre (1st)	2–3
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Florida Premier FC PRE (3rd)	8–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	SWFL PREMIER FC PRE (5th)	4–2
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Jacksonville FC Pre (4th)	6–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Sporting SA JAX Pre (7th)	3–0

Next: Sat Dec 12 at Tampa Bay United Pre · Sun Dec 13 at Florida Tropics Academy Pre · Sat Mar 6 vs Sporting SA JAX Pre See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Tampa Bay United Pre (6th)	3–1	82%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	Florida Tropics Academy Pre (8th)	4–1	90%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Sporting SA JAX Pre (1st)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Florida Tropics Academy Pre (8th)	5–1	94%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Florida Premier FC PRE (3rd)	3–1	75%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	SWFL PREMIER FC PRE (5th)	3–2	64%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Tampa Bay United Pre (6th)	4–1	88%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Sporting SA JAX Pre (7th)	3–1	84%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Jacksonville FC Pre (4th)	3–2	64%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Florida Premier FC PRE

-5

1.67

LWLWW

+0.15

+0.06

45%

4.5

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Sporting SA JAX Pre (7th)	4–2
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Jacksonville FC Pre (4th)	2–1
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Florida Kraze Krush Pre (2nd)	1–8
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Tampa Bay United Pre (6th)	2–1
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Jacksonville FC Pre (4th)	0–2
D	Sat Sep 12	at	Sporting SA JAX Pre (7th)	1–1

Next: Sat Nov 7 at SWFL PREMIER FC PRE · Sat Dec 5 at Sporting SA JAX Pre · Sun Jan 10 vs Florida Tropics Academy Pre See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	SWFL PREMIER FC PRE (5th)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	Sporting SA JAX Pre (1st)	1–3	10%
·	Sun Jan 10	vs	Florida Tropics Academy Pre (8th)	2–1	67%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	Florida Tropics Academy Pre (8th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	SWFL PREMIER FC PRE (5th)	1–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Florida Kraze Krush Pre (2nd)	1–3	13%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Sporting SA JAX Pre (1st)	1–2	16%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Tampa Bay United Pre (6th)	2–1	55%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Jacksonville FC Pre

1.50

LWWLL

-0.27

+0.07

87%

3.6

L	Sun Oct 18	at	SWFL PREMIER FC PRE (5th)	1–2
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Florida Premier FC PRE (3rd)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Florida Tropics Academy Pre (8th)	6–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Tampa Bay United Pre (6th)	5–0
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Florida Kraze Krush Pre (2nd)	3–6
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Florida Premier FC PRE (3rd)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 31 at Sporting SA JAX Pre · Sun Nov 1 at Sporting SA JAX Pre · Sat Jan 30 vs SWFL PREMIER FC PRE See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Sporting SA JAX Pre (7th)	2–1	61%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Sporting SA JAX Pre (1st)	1–2	23%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	SWFL PREMIER FC PRE (5th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Tampa Bay United Pre (6th)	3–1	75%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Florida Tropics Academy Pre (8th)	3–1	85%
·	Fri Apr 2	vs	Sporting SA JAX Pre (1st)	1–2	32%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Sporting SA JAX Pre (7th)	2–1	70%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Florida Kraze Krush Pre (2nd)	2–3	21%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SWFL PREMIER FC PRE

-1

1.50

+1.20

-0.18

66%

4.1

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Jacksonville FC Pre (4th)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Florida Kraze Krush Pre (2nd)	2–4

Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Sporting SA JAX Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Florida Premier FC PRE · Sun Dec 6 at Sporting SA JAX Pre See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	vs	Sporting SA JAX Pre (7th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Florida Premier FC PRE (3rd)	2–1	55%
·	Sun Dec 6	at	Sporting SA JAX Pre (1st)	1–2	15%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Florida Tropics Academy Pre (8th)	2–1	66%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Tampa Bay United Pre (6th)	2–1	64%
·	Sat Jan 9	vs	Florida Tropics Academy Pre (8th)	2–1	75%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	Tampa Bay United Pre (6th)	2–1	55%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	Jacksonville FC Pre (4th)	1–2	25%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	Sporting SA JAX Pre (7th)	1–1	50%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Florida Premier FC PRE (3rd)	2–1	45%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Sporting SA JAX Pre (1st)	1–2	22%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Florida Kraze Krush Pre (2nd)	2–3	21%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tampa Bay United Pre

-7

1.20

LLLWW

-0.18

+0.33

6.3

W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Florida Tropics Academy Pre (8th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Sporting SA JAX Pre (7th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Jacksonville FC Pre (4th)	0–5
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Florida Premier FC PRE (3rd)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Sporting SA JAX Pre (1st)	0–4

Next: Sun Nov 8 vs Sporting SA JAX Pre · Sat Dec 12 vs Florida Kraze Krush Pre · Sun Dec 13 at SWFL PREMIER FC PRE See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Sporting SA JAX Pre (1st)	0–2	10%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Florida Kraze Krush Pre (2nd)	1–3	8%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	SWFL PREMIER FC PRE (5th)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	SWFL PREMIER FC PRE (5th)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Jacksonville FC Pre (4th)	1–3	11%
·	Sun Feb 28	at	Sporting SA JAX Pre (7th)	1–1	29%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Florida Tropics Academy Pre (8th)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Florida Kraze Krush Pre (2nd)	1–4	5%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Florida Premier FC PRE (3rd)	1–2	24%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sporting SA JAX Pre

-5

0.67

WLLLL

-0.53

+0.61

6.9

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Florida Premier FC PRE (3rd)	2–4
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Tampa Bay United Pre (6th)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Florida Tropics Academy Pre (8th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Florida Kraze Krush Pre (2nd)	0–3
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Florida Tropics Academy Pre (8th)	2–0
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	Florida Premier FC PRE (3rd)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 17 at SWFL PREMIER FC PRE · Sat Oct 31 vs Jacksonville FC Pre · Sat Jan 9 vs Sporting SA JAX Pre See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	at	SWFL PREMIER FC PRE (5th)	1–2	21%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Jacksonville FC Pre (4th)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Jan 9	vs	Sporting SA JAX Pre (1st)	0–2	13%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	SWFL PREMIER FC PRE (5th)	1–1	28%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	Tampa Bay United Pre (6th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Jacksonville FC Pre (4th)	1–2	14%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Florida Kraze Krush Pre (2nd)	1–3	7%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Sporting SA JAX Pre (1st)	0–2	8%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Florida Tropics Academy Pre

-12

0.60

LLWLL

-0.09

+0.42

7.6

L	Sun Oct 4	at	Tampa Bay United Pre (6th)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Jacksonville FC Pre (4th)	1–6
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Sporting SA JAX Pre (7th)	2–1
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Sporting SA JAX Pre (7th)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Sporting SA JAX Pre (1st)	0–4

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Sporting SA JAX Pre · Sat Dec 12 vs SWFL PREMIER FC PRE · Sun Dec 13 vs Florida Kraze Krush Pre See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Sporting SA JAX Pre (1st)	0–3	6%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	SWFL PREMIER FC PRE (5th)	1–2	17%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Florida Kraze Krush Pre (2nd)	1–4	4%
·	Sat Jan 9	at	SWFL PREMIER FC PRE (5th)	1–2	11%
·	Sun Jan 10	at	Florida Premier FC PRE (3rd)	1–2	16%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Florida Premier FC PRE (3rd)	1–2	23%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Jacksonville FC Pre (4th)	1–3	6%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Florida Kraze Krush Pre (2nd)	1–5	2%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Tampa Bay United Pre (6th)	1–1	33%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.07 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.