Arsenal Colorado Pre- Gold
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Colorado GU12 · 8 teams · Arsenal Colorado (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 1, 12:00 PM
Fort Collins Soccer Complex, FCSC #8 ↗
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.8 for, 2.7 against · 0.92 expected points)
| Season so far | Arsenal Colorado Pre- Gold | Colorado Storm Pre- North |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 8th | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-1 | 1-0-1 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / game | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Goals against / game | 6.0 | 1.5 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L | L W |
| Biggest win | — | 3–1 vs Pride SC Pre- Copa |
| Worst loss | 1–6 at Colorado Rush Pre- White | 1–2 vs Real Colorado Pre- Olympico |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.07 | +0.13 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +1.06 | -0.05 |
Game plan
-
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 25%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
-
What a win does
Colorado EDGE Pre- United sit 7th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above Colorado EDGE Pre- United on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Colorado Storm Pre- North game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Arsenal Colorado Pre- Gold – Colorado Storm Pre- North) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.00 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 8th— holds |
| Win 1.50 PPG |
4th▲ up 4 | 4th▲ up 4 | 6th▲ up 2 |
| Draw 0.50 PPG |
5th▲ up 3 | 6th▲ up 2 | 8th— holds |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 8th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 8th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd 1%
- 3rd 2%
- 4th 4%
- 5th 9%
- 6th 14%
- 7th 26%
- 8th 45%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 6 remaining known games (max 2.57 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colorado Rush Pre- White | 3.00 (+3.00) | 1st (2.27) | 21 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection |
| 2 | Colorado Storm Central Pre | 3.00 (+3.00) | 3rd (1.79) | 21 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection |
| 3 | Real Colorado Pre- Olympico | 3.00 (+3.00) | 2nd (1.85) | 21 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection |
| 4 | Colorado Storm Pre- North | 1.50 (+1.50) | 4th (1.46) | Win next game |
| 5 | Colorado Storm South Pre | 0.00 (+0.00) | 5th (1.39) | Already ahead |
| 6 | Pride SC Pre- Copa | 0.00 (+0.00) | 6th (0.97) | Already ahead |
| 7 | Colorado EDGE Pre- United | 0.00 (+0.00) | 7th (0.87) | Already ahead |
Position over the season
2 game days
Not enough game days yet to draw a line.
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.01 · 4th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Sep 20 TBD no score posted |
Colorado Storm Central Pre 2nd · 1-0-0 · GD +2 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–3 | 0.75 | 0.38 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 12:00 PM |
Colorado Storm Pre- North 4th · 1-0-1 · GD +1 |
Home Fort Collins Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 25% |
1–2 | 0.92 | 0.56 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 11:00 AM |
Colorado Storm South Pre 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Gates South Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
1–3 | 0.72 | 0.60 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 22 01:30 PM |
Real Colorado Pre- Olympico 3rd · 1-0-0 · GD +1 |
Away far trip
Highland Heritage Regional Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
1–3 | 0.59 | 0.60 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
Colorado EDGE Pre- United 7th · 0-0-2 · GD -3 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
1–1 | 1.33 | 0.72 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 12:30 PM |
Pride SC Pre- Copa 6th · 0-0-1 · GD -2 |
Away far trip
Pride Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
1–2 | 0.95 | 0.75 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colorado Rush Pre- White | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 6 | 3.00 | WW | -0.80 | +0.08 | 98% | 1.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Pride SC Pre- Copa · Sun Nov 15 at Colorado Storm Pre- North · Sun Nov 22 vs Colorado Storm South Pre See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Colorado Storm Central Pre | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 3 | 3.00 | W | -0.49 | -0.01 | 81% | 3.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 at Arsenal Colorado Pre- Gold · Sun Nov 1 at Real Colorado Pre- Olympico · Sun Nov 15 vs Pride SC Pre- Copa See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Real Colorado Pre- Olympico | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 3.00 | W | +0.13 | -0.09 | 85% | 3.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Colorado Storm Central Pre · Fri Nov 6 vs Colorado Storm South Pre · Sun Nov 15 vs Colorado EDGE Pre- United See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Colorado Storm Pre- North | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 3 | 1.50 | WL | -0.05 | -0.01 | 54% | 4.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Arsenal Colorado Pre- Gold · Sun Nov 15 vs Colorado Rush Pre- White · Sat Dec 5 at Colorado Storm Central Pre See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Colorado Storm South Pre | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | -0.01 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sun Oct 18 vs Pride SC Pre- Copa · Sun Nov 1 at Colorado EDGE Pre- United · Fri Nov 6 at Real Colorado Pre- Olympico See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Pride SC Pre- Copa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 0.00 | L | +0.13 | +0.04 | 16% | 6.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 18 at Colorado Storm South Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs Colorado Rush Pre- White · Sun Nov 15 at Colorado Storm Central Pre See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | Colorado EDGE Pre- United | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 | 0.00 | LL | +0.72 | -0.22 | 12% | 6.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Colorado Storm South Pre · Sun Nov 15 at Real Colorado Pre- Olympico · Sun Nov 22 vs Pride SC Pre- Copa See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Arsenal Colorado Pre- Gold | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 0 | 0.00 | L | +1.06 | -0.01 | 6% | 6.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 vs Colorado Storm Central Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs Colorado Storm Pre- North · Sun Nov 15 at Colorado Storm South Pre See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.93 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.