RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- STXCL BU12 · 8 teams · RISE Soccer Club (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 9 minutes ago.

Add schedule to calendar

4th

3-1-2 record · 6 played

1.67 points per game

+8 goal diff · 17–9

LWWDLlast 5

91% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.3

-0.52 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 7, 11:30 AM

Open the match preview →

RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy
4th · 1.67 PPG

AHFC West Pre- STXCL
2nd · 1.80 PPG

McGovern Park, Field 6 ↗

62% 17% 21%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.8 for, 1.7 against · 2.02 expected points)

Season so far	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy	AHFC West Pre- STXCL
Position	4th	2nd
Record (W-D-L)	3-1-2	3-0-2
Points per game	1.67	1.80
Goals for / game	2.8	2.0
Goals against / game	1.5	2.2
Clean sheets	1	1
Held scoreless	1	2
Form (recent first)	L D W W L	W L W W L
Biggest win	8–0 vs Real Greens Soccer Academy Pre- STXCL	5–1 at Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL
Worst loss	0–2 vs HTX N Pre- STXCL II	0–6 at SG1 Pre- STXCL II
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.86	+0.01
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.52	+0.37

Common opponents: Dynamos Pre- STXCL — we 3–2; they 3–1. HTX N Pre- STXCL II — we 0–2; they 0–3. Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL — we 1–1; they 2–0, 5–1.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 vs HTX N Pre- STXCL II.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Swing game — small margins
Win 62% / draw 17% / loss 21%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
What a win does
SG1 Pre- STXCL II sit 3rd on 1.67 PPG; we are on 1.67.
A point moves us above SG1 Pre- STXCL II on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the AHFC West Pre- STXCL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy – AHFC West Pre- STXCL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 1.86 PPG	2nd▲ up 2	3rd▲ up 1	3rd▲ up 1
Win 1.86 PPG	2nd▲ up 2	3rd▲ up 1	3rd▲ up 1
Draw 1.57 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds
Loss 1.43 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

91% top 4

10% below the top 4

3.3 average finish

1st
2nd 29%
3rd 19%
4th 42%
5th 10%
6th
7th
8th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 2.11 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	HTX N Pre- STXCL II	2.67 (+1.00)	1st (2.59)	15 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	AHFC West Pre- STXCL	1.80 (+0.13)	2nd (1.75)	A point next game
3	SG1 Pre- STXCL II	1.67 (+0.00)	3rd (1.73)	A point next game

How the results connect

18 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy to AHFC West Pre- STXCL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

11 favour us

1 even

6 favour them

+1.9 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

6 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.35 · 2nd hardest of 8

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 3 10:00 AM no score posted	North Shore FC Pre- STXCL Red	Home McGovern Park	●●○○○ Lean win	62%	2–1	2.02	1.72	Swing game
Sat Nov 7 11:30 AM	AHFC West Pre- STXCL 2nd · 3-0-2 · GD -1	Home McGovern Park	●●○○○ Lean win	62%	2–1	2.02	1.76	Swing game
Sat Nov 14 11:30 AM	SG1 Pre- STXCL II 3rd · 3-1-2 · GD +9	Away far trip SG1 Westland	●●●●○ Tough	33%	2–2	1.18	1.69	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

HTX N Pre- STXCL II

+14

2.67

WWWDW

-0.24

-0.20

100%

1.0

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL (6th)	3–0
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	SG1 Pre- STXCL II (3rd)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	AHFC West Pre- STXCL (2nd)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Dynamos Pre- STXCL (7th)	3–2
W	Sun Sep 13	at	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy (4th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Real Greens Soccer Academy Pre- STXCL (8th)	5–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs North Shore FC Pre- STXCL Red · Sun Nov 8 vs Cavalry Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	North Shore FC Pre- STXCL Red (—)	2–0	73%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Cavalry Pre- STXCL (—)	2–0	73%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL (6th)	3–0	82%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

AHFC West Pre- STXCL

-1

1.80

LWWLW

+0.37

-0.56

99%

2.7

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Dynamos Pre- STXCL (7th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 26	at	HTX N Pre- STXCL II (1st)	0–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL (5th)	5–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL (5th)	2–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	SG1 Pre- STXCL II (3rd)	0–6

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs VCF HOUSTON PRE- STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy · Sat Nov 14 vs Real Greens Soccer Academy Pre- STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	VCF HOUSTON PRE- STXCL (—)	2–2	45%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy (4th)	1–2	21%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Real Greens Soccer Academy Pre- STXCL (8th)	4–0	91%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Imperial SC Pre- STXCL (—)	2–2	45%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SG1 Pre- STXCL II

1.67

WWLLD

-0.44

+0.32

87%

3.2

D	Sat Oct 17	at	HTX N Pre- STXCL II (1st)	1–1
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	VCF HOUSTON PRE- STXCL (—)	3–5
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL (5th)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL (6th)	3–2
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Real Greens Soccer Academy Pre- STXCL (8th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	AHFC West Pre- STXCL (2nd)	6–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs AHFC SW Pre- STXCL · Sun Nov 8 at Dynamos Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	AHFC SW Pre- STXCL (—)	3–1	65%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Dynamos Pre- STXCL (7th)	3–2	54%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy (4th)	2–2	48%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy

1.67

LWWDL

-0.52

+0.35

91%

3.3

L	Wed Oct 21	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL White (—)	1–2
D	Sat Oct 17	at	Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL (5th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL (6th)	4–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Real Greens Soccer Academy Pre- STXCL (8th)	8–0
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	HTX N Pre- STXCL II (1st)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Dynamos Pre- STXCL (7th)	3–2

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs North Shore FC Pre- STXCL Red · Sat Nov 7 vs AHFC West Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at SG1 Pre- STXCL II See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	North Shore FC Pre- STXCL Red (—)	2–1	62%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	AHFC West Pre- STXCL (2nd)	2–1	62%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	SG1 Pre- STXCL II (3rd)	2–2	33%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL

-3

1.33

LLWDW

-0.34

+0.03

16%

5.0

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Real Greens Soccer Academy Pre- STXCL (8th)	2–0
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy (4th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	SG1 Pre- STXCL II (3rd)	3–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	AHFC West Pre- STXCL (2nd)	1–5
L	Sun Sep 13	at	AHFC West Pre- STXCL (2nd)	0–2
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL (6th)	2–2

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs MAFC Pre- STXCL · Sat Oct 24 vs Imperial SC Pre- STXCL · Sun Nov 15 at Dynamos Pre- STXCL See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	MAFC Pre- STXCL (—)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Imperial SC Pre- STXCL (—)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Dynamos Pre- STXCL (7th)	1–2	26%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL

-11

1.00

LLWLL

-0.04

+0.72

6.2

L	Sat Oct 24	vs	MAFC Pre- STXCL (—)	1–11
L	Sun Oct 18	vs	HTX N Pre- STXCL II (1st)	0–3
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Real Greens Soccer Academy Pre- STXCL (8th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy (4th)	2–4
L	Sat Sep 19	at	SG1 Pre- STXCL II (3rd)	2–3
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Dynamos Pre- STXCL (7th)	3–1
D	Sat Sep 12	at	Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL (5th)	2–2

Next: Sat Nov 14 at HTX N Pre- STXCL II · Sat Nov 21 vs RISE SC Pre- STXCL Magenta See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 14	at	HTX N Pre- STXCL II (1st)	0–3	7%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Magenta (—)	2–2	34%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Dynamos Pre- STXCL

0.60

LLLWL

-0.30

+0.17

6.5

L	Sun Oct 18	at	AHFC West Pre- STXCL (2nd)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Real Greens Soccer Academy Pre- STXCL (8th)	8–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	HTX N Pre- STXCL II (1st)	2–3
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL (6th)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy (4th)	2–3

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs RISE SC Pre- STXCL White · Sat Oct 24 vs RISE SC Pre- STXCL Magenta · Sun Nov 8 vs SG1 Pre- STXCL II See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL White (—)	2–2	48%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Magenta (—)	2–2	48%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	SG1 Pre- STXCL II (3rd)	2–3	29%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL (5th)	2–1	55%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Real Greens Soccer Academy Pre- STXCL

-30

0.00

LLLLL

+0.35

+0.00

8.0

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL (5th)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL (6th)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Dynamos Pre- STXCL (7th)	1–8
L	Sat Sep 19	at	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy (4th)	0–8
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	SG1 Pre- STXCL II (3rd)	0–5
L	Sat Sep 12	at	HTX N Pre- STXCL II (1st)	0–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Cavalry Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at AHFC West Pre- STXCL · Sun Nov 22 vs AHFC SW Pre- STXCL See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Cavalry Pre- STXCL (—)	0–3	5%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	AHFC West Pre- STXCL (2nd)	0–4	3%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	AHFC SW Pre- STXCL (—)	0–3	5%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.13 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.