Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- STXCL BU12 · 8 teams · Houstonians FC (all teams)

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5th

2-2-3 record · 7 played

1.14 points per game

-6 goal diff · 10–16

LWDWLlast 5

8% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.1

-0.28 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 15, 01:00 PM

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Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL
5th · 1.14 PPG

Dynamos Pre- STXCL
7th · 0.50 PPG

Dyess Park, Field 6 ↗ far trip

25% 18% 57%

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.8 for, 2.6 against · 0.93 expected points)

Season so far	Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL	Dynamos Pre- STXCL
Position	5th	7th
Record (W-D-L)	2-2-3	1-0-5
Points per game	1.14	0.50
Goals for / game	1.4	2.5
Goals against / game	2.3	2.5
Clean sheets	1	0
Held scoreless	1	0
Form (recent first)	L W D W L	L L W L L
Biggest win	2–0 at Real Greens Soccer Academy Pre- STXCL	8–1 at Real Greens Soccer Academy Pre- STXCL
Worst loss	1–5 vs AHFC West Pre- STXCL	1–3 at Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.50	+0.03
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.28	-0.21

Common opponents: Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL — we 2–2; they 1–3. AHFC West Pre- STXCL — we 0–2, 1–5; they 1–3. RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy — we 1–1; they 2–3. Real Greens Soccer Academy Pre- STXCL — we 2–0; they 8–1.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 at AHFC West Pre- STXCL.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 25%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff 01:00 PM at Dyess Park.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Dynamos Pre- STXCL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL – Dynamos Pre- STXCL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Nov 9 – Sun Nov 15); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 1.00 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	6th▼ down 1
Win 1.38 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	5th— holds
Draw 1.13 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	6th▼ down 1
Loss 1.00 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	6th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 5th even if every rival loses, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

8% top 4

92% below the top 4

5.1 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd
4th 8%
5th 73%
6th 18%
7th 1%
8th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 1.56 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	HTX N Pre- STXCL II	2.71 (+1.57)	1st (2.67)	17 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	AHFC West Pre- STXCL	2.00 (+0.86)	2nd (1.91)	10 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy	1.67 (+0.53)	3rd (1.69)	8 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4	SG1 Pre- STXCL II	1.57 (+0.43)	4th (1.60)	7 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule

How the results connect

20 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL to Dynamos Pre- STXCL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

8 favour us

1 even

11 favour them

-0.5 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

6 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.01 · 6th hardest of 8

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 3 08:30 AM no score posted	MAFC Pre- STXCL	Home Burroughs Park	●●●●○ Tough	34%	1–2	1.24	1.16	Upside
Sun Nov 15 01:00 PM	Dynamos Pre- STXCL 7th · 1-0-5 · GD +0	Away far trip Dyess Park	●●●●○ Tough	25%	1–2	0.93	1.13	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

HTX N Pre- STXCL II

+19

2.71

WWDWW

-0.22

-0.31

100%

1.0

W	Sat Oct 24	vs	North Shore FC Pre- STXCL Red (—)	5–0
W	Sun Oct 18	at	Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL (6th)	3–0
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	SG1 Pre- STXCL II (4th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	AHFC West Pre- STXCL (2nd)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Dynamos Pre- STXCL (7th)	3–2
W	Sun Sep 13	at	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy (3rd)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Real Greens Soccer Academy Pre- STXCL (8th)	5–0

Next: Sun Nov 8 vs Cavalry Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Cavalry Pre- STXCL (—)	2–0	76%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL (6th)	3–0	84%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

AHFC West Pre- STXCL

2.00

WWLWW

+0.33

-0.67

100%

2.4

W	Sat Oct 24	vs	VCF HOUSTON PRE- STXCL (—)	2–1
W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Dynamos Pre- STXCL (7th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 26	at	HTX N Pre- STXCL II (1st)	0–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL (5th)	5–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL (5th)	2–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	SG1 Pre- STXCL II (4th)	0–6

Next: Sat Nov 7 at RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy · Sat Nov 14 vs Real Greens Soccer Academy Pre- STXCL · Sun Nov 22 vs Imperial SC Pre- STXCL See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy (3rd)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Real Greens Soccer Academy Pre- STXCL (8th)	4–0	90%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Imperial SC Pre- STXCL (—)	2–1	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy

1.67

LWWDL

-0.49

+0.35

97%

3.2

L	Wed Oct 21	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL White (—)	1–2
D	Sat Oct 17	at	Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL (5th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL (6th)	4–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Real Greens Soccer Academy Pre- STXCL (8th)	8–0
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	HTX N Pre- STXCL II (1st)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Dynamos Pre- STXCL (7th)	3–2

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs North Shore FC Pre- STXCL Red · Sat Nov 7 vs AHFC West Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at SG1 Pre- STXCL II See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	North Shore FC Pre- STXCL Red (—)	2–1	62%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	AHFC West Pre- STXCL (2nd)	2–1	60%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	SG1 Pre- STXCL II (4th)	2–2	34%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SG1 Pre- STXCL II

1.57

WLLDD

-0.38

+0.44

94%

3.4

D	Sat Oct 24	vs	AHFC SW Pre- STXCL (—)	2–2
D	Sat Oct 17	at	HTX N Pre- STXCL II (1st)	1–1
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	VCF HOUSTON PRE- STXCL (—)	3–5
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL (5th)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL (6th)	3–2
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Real Greens Soccer Academy Pre- STXCL (8th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	AHFC West Pre- STXCL (2nd)	6–0

Next: Sun Nov 8 at Dynamos Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Dynamos Pre- STXCL (7th)	3–2	54%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy (3rd)	2–2	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL

-6

1.14

LWDWL

-0.28

+0.01

5.1

L	Sat Oct 24	vs	Imperial SC Pre- STXCL (—)	1–4
W	Sun Oct 18	at	Real Greens Soccer Academy Pre- STXCL (8th)	2–0
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy (3rd)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	SG1 Pre- STXCL II (4th)	3–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	AHFC West Pre- STXCL (2nd)	1–5
L	Sun Sep 13	at	AHFC West Pre- STXCL (2nd)	0–2
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL (6th)	2–2

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs MAFC Pre- STXCL · Sun Nov 15 at Dynamos Pre- STXCL See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	MAFC Pre- STXCL (—)	1–2	34%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Dynamos Pre- STXCL (7th)	1–2	25%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL

-11

1.00

LLWLL

-0.01

+0.81

6.2

L	Sat Oct 24	vs	MAFC Pre- STXCL (—)	1–11
L	Sun Oct 18	vs	HTX N Pre- STXCL II (1st)	0–3
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Real Greens Soccer Academy Pre- STXCL (8th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy (3rd)	2–4
L	Sat Sep 19	at	SG1 Pre- STXCL II (4th)	2–3
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Dynamos Pre- STXCL (7th)	3–1
D	Sat Sep 12	at	Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL (5th)	2–2

Next: Sat Nov 14 at HTX N Pre- STXCL II · Sat Nov 21 vs RISE SC Pre- STXCL Magenta See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 14	at	HTX N Pre- STXCL II (1st)	0–3	6%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Magenta (—)	2–2	34%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Dynamos Pre- STXCL

0.50

LLWLL

-0.21

+0.16

6.6

L	Sat Oct 24	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Magenta (—)	1–2
L	Sun Oct 18	at	AHFC West Pre- STXCL (2nd)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Real Greens Soccer Academy Pre- STXCL (8th)	8–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	HTX N Pre- STXCL II (1st)	2–3
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL (6th)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy (3rd)	2–3

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs RISE SC Pre- STXCL White · Sun Nov 8 vs SG1 Pre- STXCL II · Sun Nov 15 vs Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL White (—)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	SG1 Pre- STXCL II (4th)	2–3	29%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL (5th)	2–1	57%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Real Greens Soccer Academy Pre- STXCL

-29

0.43

LLLLW

+0.33

+0.04

8.0

W	Sat Oct 24	vs	Cavalry Pre- STXCL (—)	2–1
L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL (5th)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL (6th)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Dynamos Pre- STXCL (7th)	1–8
L	Sat Sep 19	at	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy (3rd)	0–8
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	SG1 Pre- STXCL II (4th)	0–5
L	Sat Sep 12	at	HTX N Pre- STXCL II (1st)	0–5

Next: Sat Nov 14 at AHFC West Pre- STXCL · Sun Nov 22 vs AHFC SW Pre- STXCL See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 14	at	AHFC West Pre- STXCL (2nd)	0–4	3%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	AHFC SW Pre- STXCL (—)	1–3	6%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.13 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.