Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- STXCL BU12 · 8 teams · Coastal Premier Alliance FC (all teams)

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6th

2-1-4 record · 7 played

1.00 points per game

-11 goal diff · 13–24

LLWLLlast 5

1% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.2

-0.01 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 14, 11:30 AM

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Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL
6th · 1.00 PPG

HTX N Pre- STXCL II
1st · 2.71 PPG

Dyess Park, Field 6 ↗ far trip

6% 10% 84%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–3 (expected goals 0.9 for, 3.4 against · 0.27 expected points)

Season so far	Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL	HTX N Pre- STXCL II
Position	6th	1st
Record (W-D-L)	2-1-4	6-1-0
Points per game	1.00	2.71
Goals for / game	1.9	3.1
Goals against / game	3.4	0.4
Clean sheets	1	5
Held scoreless	1	0
Form (recent first)	L L W L L	W W D W W
Biggest win	3–0 vs Real Greens Soccer Academy Pre- STXCL	5–0 vs Real Greens Soccer Academy Pre- STXCL
Worst loss	1–11 vs MAFC Pre- STXCL	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.61	+1.61
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.01	-0.22

Already played this season: Sun Oct 18 0–3 vs HTX N Pre- STXCL II (L)

Common opponents: Dynamos Pre- STXCL — we 3–1; they 3–2. SG1 Pre- STXCL II — we 2–3; they 1–1. RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy — we 2–4; they 2–0. Real Greens Soccer Academy Pre- STXCL — we 3–0; they 5–0.

Game plan

Respect their attack
HTX N Pre- STXCL II score 3.1/game — well above the league's 2.1.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Hard to break down
HTX N Pre- STXCL II concede only 0.4/game with 5 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 vs HTX N Pre- STXCL II.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 6%; a draw (10%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff 11:30 AM at Dyess Park.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL sit 5th on 1.14 PPG; we are on 1.00.
A point moves us above Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the HTX N Pre- STXCL II game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL – HTX N Pre- STXCL II) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Nov 9 – Sun Nov 15); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 0.88 PPG	6th— holds	6th— holds	6th— holds
Win 1.25 PPG	5th▲ up 1	5th▲ up 1	6th— holds
Draw 1.00 PPG	6th— holds	6th— holds	6th— holds
Loss 0.88 PPG	6th— holds	6th— holds	6th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–3 loss we stay 6th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

1% top 4

99% below the top 4

6.2 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd
4th 1%
5th 5%
6th 68%
7th 27%
8th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 1.44 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	HTX N Pre- STXCL II	2.71 (+1.71)	1st (2.67)	18 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	AHFC West Pre- STXCL	2.00 (+1.00)	2nd (1.91)	11 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy	1.67 (+0.67)	3rd (1.69)	9 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4	SG1 Pre- STXCL II	1.57 (+0.57)	4th (1.60)	8 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5	Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL	1.14 (+0.14)	5th (1.13)	A point next game

How the results connect

20 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL to HTX N Pre- STXCL II through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

5 favour us

15 favour them

-1.9 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

6 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.81 · 1st hardest of 8

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Nov 14 11:30 AM	HTX N Pre- STXCL II 1st · 6-1-0 · GD +19	Away far trip Dyess Park	●●●●● Very tough	6%	0–3	0.27	0.91	Upside
Sat Nov 21 02:30 PM	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Magenta	Home Lindsay/Lyons Park	●●●●○ Tough	34%	2–2	1.23	0.94	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

HTX N Pre- STXCL II

+19

2.71

WWDWW

-0.22

-0.31

100%

1.0

W	Sat Oct 24	vs	North Shore FC Pre- STXCL Red (—)	5–0
W	Sun Oct 18	at	Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL (6th)	3–0
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	SG1 Pre- STXCL II (4th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	AHFC West Pre- STXCL (2nd)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Dynamos Pre- STXCL (7th)	3–2
W	Sun Sep 13	at	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy (3rd)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Real Greens Soccer Academy Pre- STXCL (8th)	5–0

Next: Sun Nov 8 vs Cavalry Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Cavalry Pre- STXCL (—)	2–0	76%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL (6th)	3–0	84%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

AHFC West Pre- STXCL

2.00

WWLWW

+0.33

-0.67

100%

2.4

W	Sat Oct 24	vs	VCF HOUSTON PRE- STXCL (—)	2–1
W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Dynamos Pre- STXCL (7th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 26	at	HTX N Pre- STXCL II (1st)	0–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL (5th)	5–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL (5th)	2–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	SG1 Pre- STXCL II (4th)	0–6

Next: Sat Nov 7 at RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy · Sat Nov 14 vs Real Greens Soccer Academy Pre- STXCL · Sun Nov 22 vs Imperial SC Pre- STXCL See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy (3rd)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Real Greens Soccer Academy Pre- STXCL (8th)	4–0	90%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Imperial SC Pre- STXCL (—)	2–1	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy

1.67

LWWDL

-0.49

+0.35

97%

3.2

L	Wed Oct 21	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL White (—)	1–2
D	Sat Oct 17	at	Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL (5th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL (6th)	4–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Real Greens Soccer Academy Pre- STXCL (8th)	8–0
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	HTX N Pre- STXCL II (1st)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Dynamos Pre- STXCL (7th)	3–2

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs North Shore FC Pre- STXCL Red · Sat Nov 7 vs AHFC West Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at SG1 Pre- STXCL II See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	North Shore FC Pre- STXCL Red (—)	2–1	62%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	AHFC West Pre- STXCL (2nd)	2–1	60%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	SG1 Pre- STXCL II (4th)	2–2	34%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SG1 Pre- STXCL II

1.57

WLLDD

-0.38

+0.44

95%

3.4

D	Sat Oct 24	vs	AHFC SW Pre- STXCL (—)	2–2
D	Sat Oct 17	at	HTX N Pre- STXCL II (1st)	1–1
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	VCF HOUSTON PRE- STXCL (—)	3–5
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL (5th)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL (6th)	3–2
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Real Greens Soccer Academy Pre- STXCL (8th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	AHFC West Pre- STXCL (2nd)	6–0

Next: Sun Nov 8 at Dynamos Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Dynamos Pre- STXCL (7th)	3–2	54%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy (3rd)	2–2	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL

-6

1.14

LWDWL

-0.28

+0.01

5.1

L	Sat Oct 24	vs	Imperial SC Pre- STXCL (—)	1–4
W	Sun Oct 18	at	Real Greens Soccer Academy Pre- STXCL (8th)	2–0
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy (3rd)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	SG1 Pre- STXCL II (4th)	3–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	AHFC West Pre- STXCL (2nd)	1–5
L	Sun Sep 13	at	AHFC West Pre- STXCL (2nd)	0–2
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL (6th)	2–2

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs MAFC Pre- STXCL · Sun Nov 15 at Dynamos Pre- STXCL See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	MAFC Pre- STXCL (—)	1–2	34%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Dynamos Pre- STXCL (7th)	1–2	25%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL

-11

1.00

LLWLL

-0.01

+0.81

6.2

L	Sat Oct 24	vs	MAFC Pre- STXCL (—)	1–11
L	Sun Oct 18	vs	HTX N Pre- STXCL II (1st)	0–3
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Real Greens Soccer Academy Pre- STXCL (8th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy (3rd)	2–4
L	Sat Sep 19	at	SG1 Pre- STXCL II (4th)	2–3
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Dynamos Pre- STXCL (7th)	3–1
D	Sat Sep 12	at	Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL (5th)	2–2

Next: Sat Nov 14 at HTX N Pre- STXCL II · Sat Nov 21 vs RISE SC Pre- STXCL Magenta See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 14	at	HTX N Pre- STXCL II (1st)	0–3	6%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Magenta (—)	2–2	34%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Dynamos Pre- STXCL

0.50

LLWLL

-0.21

+0.16

6.6

L	Sat Oct 24	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Magenta (—)	1–2
L	Sun Oct 18	at	AHFC West Pre- STXCL (2nd)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Real Greens Soccer Academy Pre- STXCL (8th)	8–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	HTX N Pre- STXCL II (1st)	2–3
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL (6th)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy (3rd)	2–3

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs RISE SC Pre- STXCL White · Sun Nov 8 vs SG1 Pre- STXCL II · Sun Nov 15 vs Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL White (—)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	SG1 Pre- STXCL II (4th)	2–3	29%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL (5th)	2–1	57%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Real Greens Soccer Academy Pre- STXCL

-29

0.43

LLLLW

+0.33

+0.04

8.0

W	Sat Oct 24	vs	Cavalry Pre- STXCL (—)	2–1
L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL (5th)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL (6th)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Dynamos Pre- STXCL (7th)	1–8
L	Sat Sep 19	at	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy (3rd)	0–8
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	SG1 Pre- STXCL II (4th)	0–5
L	Sat Sep 12	at	HTX N Pre- STXCL II (1st)	0–5

Next: Sat Nov 14 at AHFC West Pre- STXCL · Sun Nov 22 vs AHFC SW Pre- STXCL See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 14	at	AHFC West Pre- STXCL (2nd)	0–4	3%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	AHFC SW Pre- STXCL (—)	1–3	6%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.13 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.