HTX N Pre- STXCL I

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- STXCL BU12 · 6 teams · HTX (all teams)

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1st

4-2-0 record · 6 played

2.33 points per game

+13 goal diff · 18–5

DWWWlast 4

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.0

-0.05 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 14, 08:30 AM

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HTX N Pre- STXCL I
1st · 2.33 PPG

RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt
4th · 1.33 PPG

McGovern Park, Field 6 ↗ far trip

64% 19% 17%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.4 for, 1.2 against · 2.11 expected points)

Season so far	HTX N Pre- STXCL I	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt
Position	1st	4th
Record (W-D-L)	4-2-0	2-2-2
Points per game	2.33	1.33
Goals for / game	3.0	1.5
Goals against / game	0.8	1.7
Clean sheets	2	1
Held scoreless	0	1
Form (recent first)	W W W D	W L L D
Biggest win	6–1 at Challenge United East Pre- STXCL	2–0 vs Challenge United East Pre- STXCL
Worst loss	—	0–3 at AHFC Pre- STXCL
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.30	-0.28
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.05	-0.22

Common opponents: SG1 Pre- STXCL — we 3–3; they 1–3. Challenge United East Pre- STXCL — we 6–1; they 2–0. AHFC Pre- STXCL — we 2–0; they 0–3.

Game plan

Swing game — small margins
Win 64% / draw 19% / loss 17%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
Away game
Kickoff 08:30 AM at McGovern Park.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
Early kickoff
Game time 08:30 AM.
Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (HTX N Pre- STXCL I – RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Nov 9 – Sun Nov 15); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.43 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 2.43 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.14 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Loss 2.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

97% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.0 average finish

1st 97%
2nd 4%
3rd
4th
5th
6th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

9 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link HTX N Pre- STXCL I to RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

8 favour us

1 favour them

+3.4 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

9 chains

Position over the season

6 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.19 · 6th hardest of 6

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Nov 14 08:30 AM	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt 4th · 2-2-2 · GD -1	Away far trip McGovern Park	●●○○○ Lean win	64%	2–1	2.11	2.30	Swing game
Sat Nov 21 08:30 AM	Houstonians FC Pre- STXCL 5th · 1-1-3 · GD -3	Home Gosling Sports Fields	●○○○○ Favorable	81%	3–1	2.54	2.33	Bank it
Sat Dec 5 02:30 PM	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold	Home New Territory Sports Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	70%	2–1	2.25	2.32	Swing game
Sat Dec 5 10:00 AM	Pflugerville FC Pre- STXCL Green	Home New Territory Sports Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	70%	2–1	2.25	2.32	Swing game
Sun Dec 6 08:30 AM	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL	Home New Territory Sports Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	70%	2–1	2.25	2.31	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

HTX N Pre- STXCL I

+13

2.33

DWWW

-0.05

-0.19

100%

1.0

W	Sat Oct 24	vs	Challenge United Pre- STXCL (—)	5–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	AHFC Pre- STXCL (3rd)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Challenge United East Pre- STXCL (6th)	6–1
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	SG1 Pre- STXCL (2nd)	3–3

Next: Sat Nov 14 at RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt · Sat Nov 21 vs Houstonians FC Pre- STXCL · Sat Dec 5 vs San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 14	at	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt (4th)	2–1	64%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Houstonians FC Pre- STXCL (5th)	3–1	81%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold (—)	2–1	70%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Pflugerville FC Pre- STXCL Green (—)	2–1	70%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL (—)	2–1	70%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SG1 Pre- STXCL

1.83

DDWW

-0.23

+0.05

100%

2.2

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Houstonians FC Pre- STXCL (5th)	5–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt (4th)	3–1
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Challenge United East Pre- STXCL (6th)	1–1
D	Sat Sep 12	at	HTX N Pre- STXCL I (1st)	3–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs RISE SC Pre- STXCL Sky · Sat Nov 14 vs AHFC Pre- STXCL · Sat Dec 5 vs Pflugerville FC Pre- STXCL Green See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Sky (—)	2–1	60%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	AHFC Pre- STXCL (3rd)	2–1	53%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Pflugerville FC Pre- STXCL Green (—)	2–1	60%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red B (—)	2–1	60%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold (—)	2–1	60%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

AHFC Pre- STXCL

1.71

WWLWW

-0.18

+0.19

100%

2.8

W	Sat Oct 24	vs	AHFC Pre- STXCL Elite (—)	4–3
W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Challenge United East Pre- STXCL (6th)	3–1
L	Sat Oct 17	at	HTX N Pre- STXCL I (1st)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Houstonians FC Pre- STXCL (5th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt (4th)	3–0

Next: Sat Nov 14 at SG1 Pre- STXCL · Sat Dec 5 vs FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue · Sat Dec 5 vs San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 14	at	SG1 Pre- STXCL (2nd)	1–2	27%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue (—)	2–1	50%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL (—)	2–1	50%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red A (—)	2–1	50%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt

-1

1.33

DLLW

-0.22

+0.26

92%

4.0

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Challenge United East Pre- STXCL (6th)	2–0
L	Sat Sep 26	at	SG1 Pre- STXCL (2nd)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 19	at	AHFC Pre- STXCL (3rd)	0–3
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	Houstonians FC Pre- STXCL (5th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs RISE SC Pre- STXCL Vivid · Sat Nov 14 vs HTX N Pre- STXCL I · Sat Dec 5 vs San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Vivid (—)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	HTX N Pre- STXCL I (1st)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL (—)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold (—)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue (—)	1–1	37%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Houstonians FC Pre- STXCL

-3

0.80

DLL

+0.29

+0.02

5.1

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	SG1 Pre- STXCL (2nd)	1–5
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	AHFC Pre- STXCL (3rd)	1–3
D	Sat Sep 12	at	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt (4th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs AHFC Central Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs Challenge United East Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 21 at HTX N Pre- STXCL I See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	AHFC Central Pre- STXCL (—)	1–2	32%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Challenge United East Pre- STXCL (6th)	2–1	56%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	HTX N Pre- STXCL I (1st)	1–3	8%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red B (—)	1–2	32%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red A (—)	1–2	32%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	Pflugerville FC Pre- STXCL Green (—)	1–2	32%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Challenge United East Pre- STXCL

-13

0.57

DLLLL

+0.48

-0.16

5.8

L	Sat Oct 24	vs	HTX S Pre- STXCL I (—)	0–4
L	Sun Oct 18	at	AHFC Pre- STXCL (3rd)	1–3
L	Sat Oct 17	at	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt (4th)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	HTX N Pre- STXCL I (1st)	1–6
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	SG1 Pre- STXCL (2nd)	1–1

Next: Sat Nov 14 at Houstonians FC Pre- STXCL · Sat Dec 5 vs Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red A · Sat Dec 5 vs FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Houstonians FC Pre- STXCL (5th)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red A (—)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue (—)	1–2	22%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red B (—)	1–2	22%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.90 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.