TableChase Clubs

Challenge United East Pre- STXCL

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- STXCL BU12 · 6 teams · Challenge SC (all teams)

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6th
1-1-5 record · 7 played
0.57 points per game
-13 goal diff · 6–19
DLLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.0
+0.53 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 14, 02:30 PM

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Challenge United East Pre- STXCL
6th · 0.57 PPG
at
Houstonians FC Pre- STXCL
5th · 1.17 PPG

Lindsay/Lyons Park, Field 20 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.5 for, 2.9 against · 0.67 expected points)

Season so farChallenge United East Pre- STXCLHoustonians FC Pre- STXCL
Position6th5th
Record (W-D-L)1-1-52-1-3
Points per game0.571.17
Goals for / game0.93.5
Goals against / game2.72.5
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless20
Form (recent first)L L L L DW L L D
Biggest win—12–3 vs AHFC Central Pre- STXCL
Worst loss1–6 vs HTX N Pre- STXCL I1–5 vs SG1 Pre- STXCL
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.16-0.24
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.53+0.36

Common opponents: SG1 Pre- STXCL — we 1–1; they 1–5. RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt — we 0–2; they 1–1. AHFC Pre- STXCL — we 1–3; they 1–3.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Houstonians FC Pre- STXCL score 3.5/game — well above the league's 1.9.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–2 at RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt, 0–4 vs HTX S Pre- STXCL I.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 17%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 02:30 PM at Lindsay/Lyons Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Houstonians FC Pre- STXCL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Challenge United East Pre- STXCL – Houstonians FC Pre- STXCL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Nov 9 – Sun Nov 15); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.50 PPG		 6th— holds 6th— holds 6th— holds
Win
0.88 PPG		 6th— holds 6th— holds 6th— holds
Draw
0.63 PPG		 6th— holds 6th— holds 6th— holds
Loss
0.50 PPG		 6th— holds 6th— holds 6th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 6th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
6.0 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th 100%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 1.45 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 HTX N Pre- STXCL I 2.33 (+1.76) 1st (2.30) 22 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 SG1 Pre- STXCL 2.00 (+1.43) 2nd (2.01) 18 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 AHFC Pre- STXCL 1.71 (+1.14) 3rd (1.64) 15 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt 1.29 (+0.72) 5th (1.25) 11 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection
5 Houstonians FC Pre- STXCL 1.17 (+0.60) 4th (1.26) 9 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection

How the results connect

9 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Challenge United East Pre- STXCL to Houstonians FC Pre- STXCL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
2 even
4 favour them
+0.0 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–3 3–1 0–2 1–1 1–1 5–1 1–3 3–0 1–6 3–3 2–0 Challenge United Ea… 6th AHFC Pre- STXCL 3rd RISE SC Pre- STXCL … 4th SG1 Pre- STXCL 2nd HTX N Pre- STXCL I 1st Houstonians FC Pre-… 5th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

9 chains

Position over the season

6 game days

1st 3rd 6th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 20 Sep 26 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.06 · 5th hardest of 6

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Nov 14
02:30 PM		 Houstonians FC Pre- STXCL
5th · 2-1-3 · GD +6		 Away
Lindsay/Lyons Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
17%		 1–2 0.67 0.58 Upside
Sat Dec 5
02:30 PM		 Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red A
 Home
New Territory Sports Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
22%		 1–2 0.85 0.61 Upside
Sat Dec 5
10:00 AM		 FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue
 Home
New Territory Sports Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
22%		 1–2 0.85 0.64 Upside
Sun Dec 6
08:30 AM		 Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red B
 Home
New Territory Sports Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
22%		 1–2 0.85 0.66 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 HTX N Pre- STXCL I 6420 185+13 142.33 DWWW +0.01 -0.10 100% 1.1
2 SG1 Pre- STXCL 7421 2210+12 142.00 DDWWW -0.12 +0.07 100% 2.1
3 AHFC Pre- STXCL 7403 1414+0 121.71 WWLWW -0.08 +0.24 100% 2.9
4 RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt 7232 1011-1 91.29 DLLWD -0.08 +0.33 38% 4.5
5 Houstonians FC Pre- STXCL 6213 2115+6 71.17 DLLW +0.36 +0.03 63% 4.3
6 Challenge United East Pre- STXCL 7115 619-13 40.57 DLLLL +0.53 -0.06 0% 6.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.90 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.