AHFC Pre- STXCL

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- STXCL BU12 · 6 teams · Albion Hurricanes FC (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 15 minutes ago.

Add schedule to calendar

3rd

4-0-3 record · 7 played

1.71 points per game

+0 goal diff · 14–14

WWLWWlast 5

99% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.9

-0.08 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 14, 01:00 PM

Open the match preview →

AHFC Pre- STXCL
3rd · 1.71 PPG

SG1 Pre- STXCL
2nd · 2.00 PPG

SG1 Westland, East ↗

24% 19% 57%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.6 for, 2.5 against · 0.90 expected points)

Season so far	AHFC Pre- STXCL	SG1 Pre- STXCL
Position	3rd	2nd
Record (W-D-L)	4-0-3	4-2-1
Points per game	1.71	2.00
Goals for / game	2.0	3.1
Goals against / game	2.0	1.4
Clean sheets	1	1
Held scoreless	1	0
Form (recent first)	W W L W W	W W W D D
Biggest win	3–0 vs RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt	5–0 vs RISE SC Pre- STXCL Sky
Worst loss	0–2 at HTX N Pre- STXCL I	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.27	+0.97
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.08	-0.12

Common opponents: RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt — we 3–0; they 3–1. Houstonians FC Pre- STXCL — we 3–1; they 5–1. HTX N Pre- STXCL I — we 0–2; they 3–3. Challenge United East Pre- STXCL — we 3–1; they 1–1.

Game plan

Respect their attack
SG1 Pre- STXCL score 3.1/game — well above the league's 1.9.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 at HTX N Pre- STXCL I.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 24%; a draw (19%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
They arrive in form
SG1 Pre- STXCL have won 3 straight.
Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
Away game
Kickoff 01:00 PM at SG1 Westland.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the SG1 Pre- STXCL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (AHFC Pre- STXCL – SG1 Pre- STXCL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Nov 9 – Sun Nov 15); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 1.50 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	4th▼ down 1
Win 1.88 PPG	2nd▲ up 1	2nd▲ up 1	2nd▲ up 1
Draw 1.63 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Loss 1.50 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	4th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

99% top 4

1% below the top 4

2.9 average finish

1st <1%
2nd 24%
3rd 61%
4th 14%
5th 1%
6th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 2.18 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	HTX N Pre- STXCL I	2.33 (+0.62)	1st (2.30)	14 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	SG1 Pre- STXCL	2.00 (+0.29)	2nd (2.01)	10 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection

How the results connect

10 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link AHFC Pre- STXCL to SG1 Pre- STXCL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us

1 even

5 favour them

+0.1 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

10 chains

Position over the season

6 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.24 · 2nd hardest of 6

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Nov 14 01:00 PM	SG1 Pre- STXCL 2nd · 4-2-1 · GD +12	Away SG1 Westland	●●●●● Very tough	24%	1–2	0.90	1.61	Upside
Sat Dec 5 02:30 PM	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue	Home New Territory Sports Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	50%	2–1	1.70	1.62	Swing game
Sat Dec 5 10:00 AM	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL	Home New Territory Sports Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	50%	2–1	1.70	1.63	Swing game
Sun Dec 6 08:30 AM	Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red A	Home New Territory Sports Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	50%	2–1	1.70	1.64	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

HTX N Pre- STXCL I

+13

2.33

DWWW

+0.01

-0.10

100%

1.1

W	Sat Oct 24	vs	Challenge United Pre- STXCL (—)	5–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	AHFC Pre- STXCL (3rd)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Challenge United East Pre- STXCL (6th)	6–1
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	SG1 Pre- STXCL (2nd)	3–3

Next: Sat Nov 14 at RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt · Sat Nov 21 vs Houstonians FC Pre- STXCL · Sat Dec 5 vs San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 14	at	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt (4th)	2–1	64%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Houstonians FC Pre- STXCL (5th)	3–1	77%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold (—)	2–1	70%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Pflugerville FC Pre- STXCL Green (—)	2–1	70%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL (—)	2–1	70%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SG1 Pre- STXCL

+12

2.00

DDWWW

-0.12

+0.07

100%

2.1

W	Sat Oct 24	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Sky (—)	5–0
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Houstonians FC Pre- STXCL (5th)	5–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt (4th)	3–1
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Challenge United East Pre- STXCL (6th)	1–1
D	Sat Sep 12	at	HTX N Pre- STXCL I (1st)	3–3

Next: Sat Nov 14 vs AHFC Pre- STXCL · Sat Dec 5 vs Pflugerville FC Pre- STXCL Green · Sat Dec 5 vs Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red B See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	AHFC Pre- STXCL (3rd)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Pflugerville FC Pre- STXCL Green (—)	2–1	64%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red B (—)	2–1	64%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold (—)	2–1	64%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

AHFC Pre- STXCL

1.71

WWLWW

-0.08

+0.24

99%

2.9

W	Sat Oct 24	vs	AHFC Pre- STXCL Elite (—)	4–3
W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Challenge United East Pre- STXCL (6th)	3–1
L	Sat Oct 17	at	HTX N Pre- STXCL I (1st)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Houstonians FC Pre- STXCL (5th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt (4th)	3–0

Next: Sat Nov 14 at SG1 Pre- STXCL · Sat Dec 5 vs FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue · Sat Dec 5 vs San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 14	at	SG1 Pre- STXCL (2nd)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue (—)	2–1	50%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL (—)	2–1	50%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red A (—)	2–1	50%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt

-1

1.29

DLLWD

-0.08

+0.33

40%

4.5

D	Sat Oct 24	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Vivid (—)	1–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Challenge United East Pre- STXCL (6th)	2–0
L	Sat Sep 26	at	SG1 Pre- STXCL (2nd)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 19	at	AHFC Pre- STXCL (3rd)	0–3
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	Houstonians FC Pre- STXCL (5th)	1–1

Next: Sat Nov 14 vs HTX N Pre- STXCL I · Sat Dec 5 vs San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL · Sat Dec 5 vs San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	HTX N Pre- STXCL I (1st)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL (—)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold (—)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue (—)	1–1	37%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Houstonians FC Pre- STXCL

1.17

DLLW

+0.36

+0.03

61%

4.3

W	Sat Oct 24	vs	AHFC Central Pre- STXCL (—)	12–3
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	SG1 Pre- STXCL (2nd)	1–5
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	AHFC Pre- STXCL (3rd)	1–3
D	Sat Sep 12	at	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt (4th)	1–1

Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Challenge United East Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 21 at HTX N Pre- STXCL I · Sat Dec 5 vs Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red B See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Challenge United East Pre- STXCL (6th)	2–1	67%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	HTX N Pre- STXCL I (1st)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red B (—)	2–2	41%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red A (—)	2–2	41%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	Pflugerville FC Pre- STXCL Green (—)	2–2	41%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Challenge United East Pre- STXCL

-13

0.57

DLLLL

+0.53

-0.06

6.0

L	Sat Oct 24	vs	HTX S Pre- STXCL I (—)	0–4
L	Sun Oct 18	at	AHFC Pre- STXCL (3rd)	1–3
L	Sat Oct 17	at	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt (4th)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	HTX N Pre- STXCL I (1st)	1–6
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	SG1 Pre- STXCL (2nd)	1–1

Next: Sat Nov 14 at Houstonians FC Pre- STXCL · Sat Dec 5 vs Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red A · Sat Dec 5 vs FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Houstonians FC Pre- STXCL (5th)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red A (—)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue (—)	1–2	22%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red B (—)	1–2	22%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.90 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.