San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- STXCL BU10 · 5 teams · San Antonio City SC (all teams)

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3rd

2-1-1 record · 4 played

1.75 points per game

+1 goal diff · 9–8

WWDlast 3

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.5

-0.30 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM

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San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red
3rd · 1.75 PPG

Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL
2nd · 1.75 PPG

Bill Witt Soccer Complex, Field 5A ↗

25% 15% 60%

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–3 (expected goals 2.5 for, 3.7 against · 0.91 expected points)

Season so far	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL
Position	3rd	2nd
Record (W-D-L)	2-1-1	2-1-1
Points per game	1.75	1.75
Goals for / game	2.3	6.0
Goals against / game	2.0	1.8
Clean sheets	0	1
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	D W W	D W W L
Biggest win	4–2 vs Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red	10–0 vs Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek
Worst loss	—	2–3 vs Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.31	+2.07
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.30	-0.97

Common opponents: Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red — we 4–2; they 2–3, 9–1. JSA FC Pre- STXCL — we 3–2; they 3–3.

Game plan

Respect their attack
Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL score 6.0/game — well above the league's 3.0.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 25%; a draw (15%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
What a win does
Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL sit 2nd on 1.75 PPG; we are on 1.75.
A point moves us above Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red – Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 1.40 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Win 2.00 PPG	2nd▲ up 1	2nd▲ up 1	2nd▲ up 1
Draw 1.60 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Loss 1.40 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–3 loss we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

12% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

2.5 average finish

1st 12%
2nd 27%
3rd 56%
4th 5%
5th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 6 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	JSA FC Pre- STXCL	2.00 (+0.25)	2nd (1.98)	Win next game
2	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL	1.75 (+0.00)	1st (2.05)	A point next game

How the results connect

10 chains · 5 teams

Paths of results that link San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red to Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us

1 even

5 favour them

-0.8 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

10 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.13 · 3rd hardest of 5

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 01:00 PM	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL 2nd · 2-1-1 · GD +17	Home Bill Witt Soccer Complex	●●●●○ Tough	25%	2–3	0.91	1.58	Upside
Sat Oct 24 10:00 AM	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek 5th · 0-0-3 · GD -14	Away far trip Bill Witt Soccer Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	73%	3–1	2.31	1.70	Bank it
Sat Oct 31 11:30 AM	JSA FC Pre- STXCL 1st · 3-1-1 · GD +8	Home ASP / CC	●●●●○ Tough	38%	2–2	1.32	1.65	Upside
Sun Nov 1 10:00 AM	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek 5th · 0-0-3 · GD -14	Home ASP / CC	●○○○○ Favorable	82%	4–1	2.55	1.76	Bank it
Sat Nov 14 02:30 PM	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red 4th · 2-0-5 · GD -20	Away ASP / CC	●●○○○ Lean win	63%	3–2	2.04	1.79	Swing game
Sat Nov 14 08:30 AM	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL 2nd · 2-1-1 · GD +17	Away ASP / CC	●●●●● Very tough	16%	2–4	0.61	1.67	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

JSA FC Pre- STXCL

2.00

WLWWD

-0.07

-0.49

100%

1.7

D	Sun Oct 18	at	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (2nd)	3–3
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (4th)	4–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red C (—)	6–2
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red (3rd)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (4th)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 31 at San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red · Sun Nov 1 vs Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek · Sat Nov 14 at Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red (3rd)	2–2	44%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek (5th)	4–1	87%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek (5th)	4–1	79%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (2nd)	2–3	34%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL

+17

1.75

LWWD

-0.97

-0.12

100%

1.8

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (1st)	3–3
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (4th)	9–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek (5th)	10–0
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (4th)	2–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red · Sat Oct 24 at Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek · Sat Oct 31 vs Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red (3rd)	3–2	60%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek (5th)	5–1	91%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL (—)	4–2	77%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Gold (—)	4–2	77%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red (3rd)	4–2	71%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (1st)	3–2	50%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red

1.75

WWD

-0.30

-0.13

100%

2.5

D	Sun Sep 27	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red A (—)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 20	at	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (1st)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (4th)	4–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL · Sat Oct 24 at Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek · Sat Oct 31 vs JSA FC Pre- STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (2nd)	2–3	25%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek (5th)	3–1	73%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (1st)	2–2	38%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek (5th)	4–1	82%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (4th)	3–2	63%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (2nd)	2–4	16%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red

-20

0.86

WLWLL

+0.66

-0.93

93%

4.0

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (1st)	1–4
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (2nd)	1–9
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek (5th)	4–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red (3rd)	2–4
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (2nd)	3–2
L	Sat Sep 12	at	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (1st)	0–2

Next: Sat Nov 14 vs San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red · Sun Nov 15 at Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red (3rd)	2–3	22%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek (5th)	2–2	46%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek

-14

0.00

LLL

+0.32

+0.48

4.9

L	Sun Sep 20	at	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (4th)	1–4
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red B (—)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (2nd)	0–10

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL · Sat Oct 24 vs San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red · Sun Nov 1 at JSA FC Pre- STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (2nd)	1–5	4%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red (3rd)	1–3	15%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (1st)	1–4	6%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red (3rd)	1–4	9%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (1st)	1–4	10%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (4th)	2–2	37%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.99 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.