JSA FC Pre- STXCL

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- STXCL BU10 · 5 teams · JSA FC (all teams)

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1st

3-1-1 record · 5 played

2.00 points per game

+8 goal diff · 17–9

WLWWDlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.8

-0.07 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 11:30 AM

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JSA FC Pre- STXCL
1st · 2.00 PPG

San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red
3rd · 1.75 PPG

ASP / CC, Field 7A ↗

44% 19% 38%

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.5 for, 2.3 against · 1.49 expected points)

Season so far	JSA FC Pre- STXCL	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red
Position	1st	3rd
Record (W-D-L)	3-1-1	2-1-1
Points per game	2.00	1.75
Goals for / game	3.4	2.3
Goals against / game	1.8	2.0
Clean sheets	1	0
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	D W W L W	D W W
Biggest win	6–2 vs Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red C	4–2 vs Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red
Worst loss	2–3 vs San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.82	+0.31
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.07	-0.30

Already played this season: Sun Sep 20 2–3 vs San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red (L)

Common opponents: Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red — we 2–0, 4–1; they 4–2.

Game plan

Swing game — small margins
Win 44% / draw 19% / loss 38%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
Away game
Kickoff 11:30 AM at ASP / CC.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (JSA FC Pre- STXCL – San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 1.83 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 2.17 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 1.83 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Loss 1.67 PPG	3rd▼ down 2	3rd▼ down 2	3rd▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

43% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.8 average finish

1st 43%
2nd 39%
3rd 18%
4th <1%
5th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

5 chains · 4 teams

Paths of results that link JSA FC Pre- STXCL to San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us

1 even

2 favour them

+0.6 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

5 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.49 · 4th hardest of 5

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 31 11:30 AM	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red 3rd · 2-1-1 · GD +1	Away ASP / CC	●●●○○ Toss-up	44%	2–2	1.49	1.92	Swing game
Sun Nov 1 04:00 PM	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek 5th · 0-0-3 · GD -14	Home ASP / CC	●○○○○ Favorable	87%	4–1	2.68	2.02	Bank it
Sat Nov 14 10:00 AM	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek 5th · 0-0-3 · GD -14	Away ASP / CC	●○○○○ Favorable	79%	4–1	2.48	2.08	Bank it
Sun Nov 15 10:00 AM	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL 2nd · 2-1-1 · GD +17	Home ASP / CC	●●●●○ Tough	34%	2–3	1.17	1.98	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

JSA FC Pre- STXCL

2.00

WLWWD

-0.07

-0.49

100%

1.8

D	Sun Oct 18	at	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (2nd)	3–3
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (4th)	4–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red C (—)	6–2
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red (3rd)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (4th)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 31 at San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red · Sun Nov 1 vs Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek · Sat Nov 14 at Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red (3rd)	2–2	44%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek (5th)	4–1	87%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek (5th)	4–1	79%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (2nd)	2–3	34%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL

+17

1.75

LWWD

-0.97

-0.12

100%

1.8

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (1st)	3–3
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (4th)	9–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek (5th)	10–0
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (4th)	2–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red · Sat Oct 24 at Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek · Sat Oct 31 vs Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red (3rd)	3–2	60%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek (5th)	5–1	91%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL (—)	4–2	77%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Gold (—)	4–2	77%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red (3rd)	4–2	71%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (1st)	3–2	50%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red

1.75

WWD

-0.30

-0.13

100%

2.5

D	Sun Sep 27	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red A (—)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 20	at	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (1st)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (4th)	4–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL · Sat Oct 24 at Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek · Sat Oct 31 vs JSA FC Pre- STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (2nd)	2–3	25%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek (5th)	3–1	73%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (1st)	2–2	38%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek (5th)	4–1	82%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (4th)	3–2	63%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (2nd)	2–4	16%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red

-20

0.86

WLWLL

+0.66

-0.93

93%

4.0

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (1st)	1–4
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (2nd)	1–9
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek (5th)	4–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red (3rd)	2–4
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (2nd)	3–2
L	Sat Sep 12	at	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (1st)	0–2

Next: Sat Nov 14 vs San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red · Sun Nov 15 at Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red (3rd)	2–3	22%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek (5th)	2–2	46%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek

-14

0.00

LLL

+0.32

+0.48

4.9

L	Sun Sep 20	at	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (4th)	1–4
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red B (—)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (2nd)	0–10

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL · Sat Oct 24 vs San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red · Sun Nov 1 at JSA FC Pre- STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (2nd)	1–5	4%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red (3rd)	1–3	15%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (1st)	1–4	6%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red (3rd)	1–4	9%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (1st)	1–4	10%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (4th)	2–2	37%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.99 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.