Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- STXCL BU10 · 5 teams · Boerne SC (all teams)

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4th

2-0-5 record · 7 played

0.86 points per game

-20 goal diff · 11–31

WLWLLlast 5

93% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.0

+0.66 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 14, 02:30 PM

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Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red
4th · 0.86 PPG

San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red
3rd · 1.75 PPG

ASP / CC, Field 7B ↗

22% 15% 63%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 2–3 (expected goals 2.0 for, 3.3 against · 0.80 expected points)

Season so far	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red
Position	4th	3rd
Record (W-D-L)	2-0-5	2-1-1
Points per game	0.86	1.75
Goals for / game	1.6	2.3
Goals against / game	4.4	2.0
Clean sheets	0	0
Held scoreless	1	0
Form (recent first)	L L W L W	D W W
Biggest win	4–1 vs Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek	4–2 vs Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red
Worst loss	1–9 vs Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-1.43	+0.31
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.66	-0.30

Already played this season: Sat Sep 19 2–4 at San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red (L)

Common opponents: JSA FC Pre- STXCL — we 0–2, 1–4; they 3–2.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 at JSA FC Pre- STXCL.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 22%; a draw (15%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red – San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Nov 9 – Sun Nov 15); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 0.75 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	5th▼ down 1
Win 1.13 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds
Draw 0.88 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds
Loss 0.75 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	5th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–3 loss we stay 4th even if every rival loses, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

93% top 4

7% below the top 4

4.0 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd 4%
4th 88%
5th 7%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 1.33 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	JSA FC Pre- STXCL	2.00 (+1.14)	2nd (1.98)	12 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL	1.75 (+0.89)	1st (2.05)	10 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red	1.75 (+0.89)	3rd (1.67)	10 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule

How the results connect

5 chains · 4 teams

Paths of results that link Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red to San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us

1 even

4 favour them

-3.6 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

5 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.93 · 5th hardest of 5

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Nov 14 02:30 PM	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red 3rd · 2-1-1 · GD +1	Home ASP / CC	●●●●● Very tough	22%	2–3	0.80	0.85	Upside
Sun Nov 15 02:30 PM	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek 5th · 0-0-3 · GD -14	Away ASP / CC	●●●○○ Toss-up	46%	2–2	1.55	0.93	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

JSA FC Pre- STXCL

2.00

WLWWD

-0.07

-0.49

100%

1.8

D	Sun Oct 18	at	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (2nd)	3–3
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (4th)	4–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red C (—)	6–2
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red (3rd)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (4th)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 31 at San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red · Sun Nov 1 vs Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek · Sat Nov 14 at Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red (3rd)	2–2	44%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek (5th)	4–1	87%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek (5th)	4–1	79%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (2nd)	2–3	34%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL

+17

1.75

LWWD

-0.97

-0.12

100%

1.8

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (1st)	3–3
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (4th)	9–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek (5th)	10–0
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (4th)	2–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red · Sat Oct 24 at Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek · Sat Oct 31 vs Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red (3rd)	3–2	60%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek (5th)	5–1	91%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL (—)	4–2	77%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Gold (—)	4–2	77%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red (3rd)	4–2	71%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (1st)	3–2	50%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red

1.75

WWD

-0.30

-0.13

100%

2.5

D	Sun Sep 27	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red A (—)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 20	at	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (1st)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (4th)	4–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL · Sat Oct 24 at Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek · Sat Oct 31 vs JSA FC Pre- STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (2nd)	2–3	25%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek (5th)	3–1	73%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (1st)	2–2	38%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek (5th)	4–1	82%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (4th)	3–2	63%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (2nd)	2–4	16%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red

-20

0.86

WLWLL

+0.66

-0.93

93%

4.0

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (1st)	1–4
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (2nd)	1–9
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek (5th)	4–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red (3rd)	2–4
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (2nd)	3–2
L	Sat Sep 12	at	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (1st)	0–2

Next: Sat Nov 14 vs San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red · Sun Nov 15 at Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red (3rd)	2–3	22%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek (5th)	2–2	46%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek

-14

0.00

LLL

+0.32

+0.48

4.9

L	Sun Sep 20	at	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (4th)	1–4
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red B (—)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (2nd)	0–10

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL · Sat Oct 24 vs San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red · Sun Nov 1 at JSA FC Pre- STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (2nd)	1–5	4%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red (3rd)	1–3	15%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (1st)	1–4	6%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red (3rd)	1–4	9%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (1st)	1–4	10%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (4th)	2–2	37%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.99 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.