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CDA Slammers FC Pre Black II

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Southern Cal BU12 · 9 teams · CDA Slammers FC (all teams)

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5th
2-0-2 record · 4 played
1.50 points per game
-2 goal diff · 5–7
LLWWlast 4
24% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.3
-0.38 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 1, 09:25 AM

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CDA Slammers FC Pre Black II
5th · 1.50 PPG
vs
Legends FC PRE Gold II
4th · 1.75 PPG

Santiago Charter Middle School, Field 3ss ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.5 for, 3.0 against · 1.17 expected points)

Season so farCDA Slammers FC Pre Black IILegends FC PRE Gold II
Position5th4th
Record (W-D-L)2-0-22-1-1
Points per game1.501.75
Goals for / game1.35.5
Goals against / game1.83.5
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless20
Form (recent first)W W L LL W W
Biggest win2–0 at Rebels SC Pre- Blue II9–2 at Eagles SC Eagles SC Pre- White II
Worst loss0–5 vs Beach Futbol Club Pre- Black II2–7 vs Pateadores Pre- Gold II
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.28+0.70
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.38-1.24

Common opponents: Eagles SC Eagles SC Pre- White II — we 3–1; they 9–2, 9–3.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Legends FC PRE Gold II score 5.5/game — well above the league's 3.1.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–1 at West Coast FC Pre- White II, 0–5 vs Beach Futbol Club Pre- Black II.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 33%; a draw (17%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:25 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    Legends FC PRE Gold II sit 4th on 1.75 PPG; we are on 1.50.

    A point moves us above Legends FC PRE Gold II on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Legends FC PRE Gold II game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (CDA Slammers FC Pre Black II – Legends FC PRE Gold II) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.40 PPG
5th— holds 5th— holds 5th— holds
Win
1.80 PPG
4th▲ up 1 3rd▲ up 2 4th▲ up 1
Draw
1.40 PPG
5th— holds 5th— holds 5th— holds
Loss
1.20 PPG
5th— holds 5th— holds 5th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 5th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
24% top 4
76% below the top 4
5.3 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd 8%
  4. 4th 16%
  5. 5th 27%
  6. 6th 38%
  7. 7th 8%
  8. 8th 2%
  9. 9th 1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 15 remaining known games (max 2.68 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Beach Futbol Club Pre- Black II 3.00 (+1.50) 1st (2.59) 51 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection
2 Sporting California USA Pre- NAVY II 3.00 (+1.50) 2nd (2.32) 51 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection
3 Pateadores Pre- Gold II 1.80 (+0.30) 4th (1.64) Win next game
4 Legends FC PRE Gold II 1.75 (+0.25) 3rd (1.67) A point next game

How the results connect

6 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link CDA Slammers FC Pre Black II to Legends FC PRE Gold II through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
3 favour them
+2.2 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–1 3–9 2–9 0–1 0–5 7–2 6–9 0–5 9–1 2–0 4–0 CDA Slammers FC Pre… 5th Eagles SC Eagles SC… 8th West Coast FC Pre- … 7th Beach Futbol Club P… 1st Rebels SC Pre- Blue… 6th Pateadores Pre- Gol… 3rd Legends FC PRE Gold… 4th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

6 chains

Position over the season

5 game days

1st 5th 9th Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.14 · 4th hardest of 9

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 4
10:30 AM
no score posted
SDSC Surf Pre- Silver II
9th · 0-0-4 · GD -10
Home
Santiago Charter Middle School
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
2–1 1.80 1.56 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
09:25 AM
Legends FC PRE Gold II
4th · 2-1-1 · GD +8
Home
Santiago Charter Middle School
●●●●○ Tough
33%
2–2 1.17 1.50 Upside
Sun Nov 8
10:30 AM
West Coast FC Pre- White II
7th · 1-0-2 · GD -12
Home
Santiago Charter Middle School
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
2–1 2.13 1.59 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
10:30 AM
Empire Surf Pre- II
Home
Santiago Charter Middle School
●●●●○ Tough
40%
2–2 1.41 1.56 Upside
Sun Nov 22
01:30 PM
LAFC Pre White II
Home
Santiago Charter Middle School
●●●●○ Tough
40%
2–2 1.41 1.55 Upside
Sun Dec 13
TBD
Sporting California USA Pre- NAVY II
2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +14
Home
●●●●● Very tough
20%
1–2 0.78 1.47 Upside
Sun Mar 21
TBD
Sporting California USA Pre- NAVY II
2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +14
Away
●●●●● Very tough
14%
1–3 0.54 1.38 Upside
Sun Mar 28
TBD
Beach Futbol Club Pre- Black II
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +20
Away
●●●●● Very tough
8%
1–3 0.35 1.30 Upside
Sun Apr 4
TBD
Rebels SC Pre- Blue II
6th · 1-0-2 · GD +0
Home
●●●●○ Tough
39%
1–1 1.39 1.31 Upside
Sun Apr 11
TBD
Rebels SC Pre- White II
Home
●●●●○ Tough
40%
2–2 1.41 1.31 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD
Eagles SC Eagles SC Pre- White II
8th · 1-0-4 · GD -17
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
3–2 2.12 1.37 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
01:30 PM
Legends FC PRE Gold II
4th · 2-1-1 · GD +8
Away
Silverlakes Complex
●●●●● Very tough
23%
2–3 0.85 1.33 Upside
Sun May 2
TBD
Pateadores Pre- Gold II
3rd · 3-0-2 · GD +1
Home
●●●●○ Tough
39%
2–2 1.35 1.33 Upside
Sun May 9
TBD
Pateadores Pre- Gold II
3rd · 3-0-2 · GD +1
Away
●●●●○ Tough
28%
2–3 1.01 1.32 Upside
Sun May 16
TBD
SDSC Surf Pre- Silver II
9th · 0-0-4 · GD -10
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
1–1 1.52 1.33 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Beach Futbol Club Pre- Black II 4400 244+20 123.00 WWW -0.36 -0.24 100% 1.2
2 Sporting California USA Pre- NAVY II 4400 206+14 123.00 WWW -0.94 -0.03 100% 1.9
3 Pateadores Pre- Gold II 5302 2221+1 91.80 LLWWW -0.15 +0.03 74% 3.9
4 Legends FC PRE Gold II 4211 2214+8 71.75 WWL -1.24 +0.18 71% 4.0
5 CDA Slammers FC Pre Black II 4202 57-2 61.50 LLWW -0.38 +0.14 24% 5.3
6 Rebels SC Pre- Blue II 3102 55+0 31.00 LWL +0.53 -0.09 30% 5.1
7 West Coast FC Pre- White II 3102 214-12 31.00 WLL +0.57 +0.14 0% 7.9
8 Eagles SC Eagles SC Pre- White II 5104 1431-17 30.60 WLLLL +0.08 +0.29 0% 8.2
9 SDSC Surf Pre- Silver II 4004 414-10 00.00 LLLL +0.88 -0.01 1% 7.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.13 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.