San Diego Surf Pre- Blue I
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Southern Cal BU12 · 8 teams · San Diego Surf Soccer Club (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:15 AM
El Segundo High School, Small Sided ↗ far trip
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 3–2 (expected goals 3.2 for, 2.6 against · 1.69 expected points)
| Season so far | San Diego Surf Pre- Blue I | Beach Futbol Club Pre- Gold I |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 7th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-1-2 | 0-0-4 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| Goals against / game | 2.5 | 4.8 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | D L W L | L L L L |
| Biggest win | 5–3 vs West Coast FC Pre- Navy I | — |
| Worst loss | 1–3 vs LA Breakers Pre- Blue I | 1–5 at Legends FC PRE Black I |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.21 | -1.26 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.16 | +0.63 |
Common opponents: LA Breakers Pre- Blue I — we 1–3; they 5–6. Legends FC PRE Black I — we 2–2; they 1–5.
Game plan
-
They leak goals — be greedy
Beach Futbol Club Pre- Gold I concede 4.8/game; worst result 1–5 at Legends FC PRE Black I.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 51% / draw 16% / loss 33%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
Confidence is low on their side
Beach Futbol Club Pre- Gold I have lost 4 straight (form: LLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
-
Away game
Kickoff 10:15 AM at El Segundo High School.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Beach Futbol Club Pre- Gold I game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (San Diego Surf Pre- Blue I – Beach Futbol Club Pre- Gold I) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.40 PPG |
6th— holds | 5th▲ up 1 | 6th— holds |
| Win 1.40 PPG |
6th— holds | 5th▲ up 1 | 6th— holds |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
| Loss 0.80 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–2 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd 1%
- 3rd 4%
- 4th 12%
- 5th 25%
- 6th 46%
- 7th 10%
- 8th 1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.53 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAFC Pre PLATINUM I | 2.60 (+1.60) | 1st (2.49) | 41 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection |
| 2 | Rebels SC Pre- I | 2.40 (+1.40) | 2nd (1.90) | 37 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection |
| 3 | Legends FC PRE Black I | 1.75 (+0.75) | 3rd (1.84) | 26 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
| 4 | LA Breakers Pre- Blue I | 1.75 (+0.75) | 4th (1.47) | 26 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 5 | Sporting California USA Pre- RED I | 1.50 (+0.50) | 5th (1.43) | 22 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
How the results connect
9 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link San Diego Surf Pre- Blue I to Beach Futbol Club Pre- Gold I through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
5 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.06 · 1st hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 4 09:30 AM no score posted |
Sporting California USA Pre- RED I 5th · 2-0-2 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
San Bernardino Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
2–2 | 1.19 | 1.04 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 10:15 AM |
Beach Futbol Club Pre- Gold I 7th · 0-0-4 · GD -10 |
Away far trip
El Segundo High School |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
3–2 | 1.69 | 1.15 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 1 02:40 PM |
LAFC Pre PLATINUM I 1st · 4-1-0 · GD +19 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
1–3 | 0.50 | 1.06 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 10:30 AM |
Pateadores Pre- I |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
2–2 | 1.46 | 1.11 | Swing game |
| Sun Dec 13 10:30 AM |
CDA Slammers FC Pre Maroon I |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
2–2 | 1.46 | 1.15 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 21 12:00 PM |
Legends FC PRE I |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
2–2 | 1.46 | 1.18 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 11 12:00 PM |
Rebels SC Pre- I 2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +3 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 36% |
2–2 | 1.27 | 1.19 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 01:30 PM |
West Coast FC Pre- Navy I 8th · 0-0-4 · GD -13 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 69% |
3–1 | 2.22 | 1.27 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
LA Breakers Pre- Blue I 4th · 2-1-1 · GD -3 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
2–2 | 1.27 | 1.27 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 01:30 PM |
Sporting California USA Pre- RED I 5th · 2-0-2 · GD -1 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
2–2 | 1.51 | 1.29 | Swing game |
| Sat May 8 10:30 AM |
Legends FC PRE Black I 3rd · 2-1-1 · GD +6 |
Away far trip
Silverlakes Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–2 | 0.77 | 1.25 | Upside |
| Sun May 9 10:30 AM |
Beach Futbol Club Pre- Gold I 7th · 0-0-4 · GD -10 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 63% |
3–2 | 2.04 | 1.30 | Swing game |
| Sun May 16 TBD |
LAFC Pre PLATINUM I 1st · 4-1-0 · GD +19 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
1–3 | 0.33 | 1.25 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAFC Pre PLATINUM I | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 4 | +19 | 13 | 2.60 | WWWWD | -0.56 | -0.14 | 100% | 1.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Legends FC PRE Black I · Sun Nov 1 at San Diego Surf Pre- Blue I · Sun Nov 8 vs LAFC Pre GOLD I See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Rebels SC Pre- I | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 12 | 2.40 | WWWLW | +0.14 | -0.16 | 94% | 2.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Sporting California USA Pre- RED I · Sun Nov 1 vs Beach Futbol Club Pre- Gold I · Sun Dec 13 vs SDSC Surf Pre- Blue I See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Legends FC PRE Black I | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 7 | 1.75 | WWLD | -0.29 | -0.04 | 90% | 3.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at LAFC Pre PLATINUM I · Sun Nov 1 vs West Coast FC Pre- Navy I · Sun Nov 15 vs Beach Futbol Club Pre- White I See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | LA Breakers Pre- Blue I | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 7 | 1.75 | WLWD | +0.35 | -0.12 | 55% | 4.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 at Legends FC PRE I · Sun Oct 25 at West Coast FC Pre- Navy I · Sun Nov 1 vs Sporting California USA Pre- RED I See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Sporting California USA Pre- RED I | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 6 | 1.50 | LLWW | -0.06 | -0.02 | 43% | 4.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 vs San Diego Surf Pre- Blue I · Sun Oct 25 vs Rebels SC Pre- I · Sun Nov 1 at LA Breakers Pre- Blue I See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | San Diego Surf Pre- Blue I | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 4 | 1.00 | LWLD | -0.16 | +0.06 | 18% | 5.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 at Sporting California USA Pre- RED I · Sun Oct 25 at Beach Futbol Club Pre- Gold I · Sun Nov 1 vs LAFC Pre PLATINUM I See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Beach Futbol Club Pre- Gold I | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | +0.63 | -0.03 | 0% | 7.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 at West Coast FC Pre- Navy I · Sun Oct 25 vs San Diego Surf Pre- Blue I · Sun Nov 1 at Rebels SC Pre- I See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | West Coast FC Pre- Navy I | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 18 | -13 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | +0.53 | +0.05 | 0% | 7.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 vs Beach Futbol Club Pre- Gold I · Sun Oct 25 vs LA Breakers Pre- Blue I · Sun Nov 1 at Legends FC PRE Black I See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.59 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.