TableChase Clubs

Empire Surf Pre- II

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Southern Cal BU11 · 9 teams · Empire Surf (all teams)

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3rd
3-0-1 record · 4 played
2.25 points per game
+13 goal diff · 19–6
WWLWlast 4
100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.3
-0.01 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 09:00 AM

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Empire Surf Pre- II
3rd · 2.25 PPG
vs
LAFC Pre White II
4th · 1.75 PPG

Galway Downs, Field 13 ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 4–2 (expected goals 4.0 for, 2.1 against · 2.26 expected points)

Season so farEmpire Surf Pre- IILAFC Pre White II
Position3rd4th
Record (W-D-L)3-0-12-1-1
Points per game2.251.75
Goals for / game4.83.0
Goals against / game1.52.3
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)W L W WW W L D
Biggest win10–0 vs Legends FC - Del Mar Pre White II5–1 at Legends FC - Del Mar Pre White II
Worst loss0–3 at San Diego Surf Pre- Black II2–4 vs SDSC Surf Pre- Orange II
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.92+0.30
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.01-0.55

Common opponents: Legends FC - Del Mar Pre White II — we 10–0; they 5–1. SDSC Surf Pre- Orange II — we 7–2; they 2–4.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 at San Diego Surf Pre- Black II.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 71% chance; likely score 4–2.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the LAFC Pre White II game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Empire Surf Pre- II – LAFC Pre White II) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.40 PPG		 3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Win
2.40 PPG		 3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Draw
2.00 PPG		 3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Loss
1.80 PPG		 4th▼ down 1 4th▼ down 1 4th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 4–2 win we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

10% finish 1st
100% top 4
0% below the top 4
2.3 average finish
  1. 1st 10%
  2. 2nd 51%
  3. 3rd 36%
  4. 4th 3%
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 15 remaining known games (max 2.84 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 San Diego Surf Pre- Black II 3.00 (+0.75) 1st (2.64) 48 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 42 for their projection
2 Rebels SC Pre- White II 2.50 (+0.25) 3rd (2.19) 39 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection

How the results connect

6 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Empire Surf Pre- II to LAFC Pre White II through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

5 favour us
1 even
0 favour them
+5.3 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
10–0 1–5 7–2 4–2 0–1 1–2 3–4 0–3 7–0 Empire Surf Pre- II 3rd Legends FC - Del Ma… 8th SDSC Surf Pre- Oran… 6th San Diego Surf Pre-… 1st Pateadores Pre- Blu… 7th LAFC Pre White II 4th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

6 chains

Position over the season

4 game days

1st 5th 9th Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.33 · 8th hardest of 9

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 4
09:00 AM
no score posted		 Rebels SC Pre- White II
2nd · 3-1-0 · GD +15		 Home
Galway Downs		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
51%		 3–3 1.69 2.14 Swing game
Sun Oct 25
09:00 AM		 LAFC Pre White II
4th · 2-1-1 · GD +3		 Home
Galway Downs		 ●●○○○ Lean win
71%		 4–2 2.26 2.16 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
09:00 AM		 Pateadores Pre- Blue II
7th · 1-0-3 · GD -10		 Home
Galway Downs		 ●○○○○ Favorable
88%		 5–1 2.69 2.23 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
12:30 PM		 LAFC Pre White II
4th · 2-1-1 · GD +3		 Away far trip
Oak Park High School		 ●●○○○ Lean win
60%		 3–2 1.94 2.20 Swing game
Sun Nov 22
09:00 AM		 Beach Futbol Club Pre- Black II
 Home
Galway Downs		 ●○○○○ Favorable
76%		 4–2 2.40 2.22 Bank it
Sun Dec 13
09:00 AM		 CDA Slammers FC Pre White II
5th · 2-0-2 · GD -5		 Away far trip
Santiago Charter Middle School		 ●●○○○ Lean win
74%		 4–1 2.33 2.23 Bank it
Sun Mar 21
09:00 AM		 Eagles SC Eagles SC Pre- White II
 Home
Galway Downs		 ●○○○○ Favorable
76%		 4–2 2.40 2.25 Bank it
Sun Mar 28
TBD		 LA Breakers Pre- Red II
9th · 0-0-4 · GD -24		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
94%		 6–1 2.85 2.30 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
09:00 AM		 San Diego Surf Pre- Black II
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +19		 Home
Galway Downs		 ●●●●○ Tough
32%		 2–3 1.12 2.21 Upside
Sun Apr 11
09:00 AM		 LA Breakers Pre- Red II
9th · 0-0-4 · GD -24		 Home
Galway Downs		 ●○○○○ Favorable
97%		 7–1 2.92 2.26 Bank it
Sun Apr 18
09:00 AM		 SDSC Surf Pre- Orange II
6th · 1-0-3 · GD -5		 Home
Galway Downs		 ●○○○○ Favorable
84%		 4–1 2.60 2.28 Bank it
Sun Apr 25
09:00 AM		 Legends FC - Del Mar Pre White II
8th · 1-0-3 · GD -14		 Away far trip
Solana Pacific School		 ●○○○○ Favorable
88%		 4–1 2.72 2.31 Bank it
Sat May 8
TBD		 Pateadores Pre- Blue II
7th · 1-0-3 · GD -10		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
80%		 4–1 2.49 2.32 Bank it
Sun May 9
11:00 AM		 Rebels SC Pre- White II
2nd · 3-1-0 · GD +15		 Away far trip
Southwestern College		 ●●●●○ Tough
38%		 3–3 1.31 2.26 Upside
Sun May 16
09:00 AM		 CDA Slammers FC Pre White II
5th · 2-0-2 · GD -5		 Home
Galway Downs		 ●○○○○ Favorable
83%		 4–1 2.57 2.28 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 San Diego Surf Pre- Black II 4400 212+19 123.00 WWWW +0.11 -0.44 100% 1.2
2 Rebels SC Pre- White II 4310 227+15 102.50 DWWW -1.16 -0.03 100% 2.6
3 Empire Surf Pre- II 4301 196+13 92.25 WWLW -0.01 -0.33 100% 2.3
4 LAFC Pre White II 4211 129+3 71.75 DLWW -0.55 +0.01 76% 4.2
5 CDA Slammers FC Pre White II 4202 813-5 61.50 WLLW -0.11 +0.03 17% 5.4
6 SDSC Surf Pre- Orange II 4103 712-5 30.75 LWLL -0.10 +0.08 3% 6.4
7 Pateadores Pre- Blue II 4103 717-10 30.75 LLWL +0.95 -0.20 4% 6.3
8 Legends FC - Del Mar Pre White II 4103 317-14 30.75 WLLL +0.18 +0.13 0% 7.9
9 LA Breakers Pre- Red II 4004 327-24 00.00 LLL +0.72 +0.21 0% 8.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.00 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.