WNY Flash Pre- I

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Ohio Valley BU12 (2014-2015) 9v9 · 9 teams · WNY Flash Academy (all teams)

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2nd

5-0-1 record · 6 played

2.50 points per game

+19 goal diff · 24–5

WWWLWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.3

-0.87 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 7, 03:15 PM

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WNY Flash Pre- I
2nd · 2.50 PPG

Cleveland Force Pre- Blue
1st · 2.71 PPG

Lost Nations Sports Park - West , Field 1 ↗ far trip

20% 16% 65%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.7 for, 3.1 against · 0.75 expected points)

Season so far	WNY Flash Pre- I	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue
Position	2nd	1st
Record (W-D-L)	5-0-1	6-1-0
Points per game	2.50	2.71
Goals for / game	4.0	6.3
Goals against / game	0.8	0.7
Clean sheets	2	3
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	W L W W W	W W W D W
Biggest win	9–1 at Kings Hammer SC Columbus	9–0 vs Manta Pre
Worst loss	1–2 at Grasshoppers FC Teal	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.83	+3.45
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.87	-0.82

Common opponents: North FC Pre- East — we 4–0; they 9–1. Manta Pre — we 3–0; they 9–0. Kings Hammer SC Columbus — we 9–1; they 8–0. Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black — we 5–1; they 6–1. Grasshoppers FC Teal — we 1–2; they 2–2. Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre — we 2–1; they 6–1.

Game plan

Respect their attack
Cleveland Force Pre- Blue score 6.3/game — well above the league's 2.5.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Hard to break down
Cleveland Force Pre- Blue concede only 0.7/game with 3 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 20%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
They arrive in form
Cleveland Force Pre- Blue have won 3 straight.
Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
Away game
Kickoff 03:15 PM at Lost Nations Sports Park - West .
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Cleveland Force Pre- Blue game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (WNY Flash Pre- I – Cleveland Force Pre- Blue) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 2.14 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Win 2.57 PPG	1st▲ up 1	1st▲ up 1	1st▲ up 1
Draw 2.29 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Loss 2.14 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

12% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

2.3 average finish

1st 12%
2nd 61%
3rd 16%
4th 11%
5th <1%
6th
7th
8th
9th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 2.63 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue	2.71 (+0.21)	1st (2.64)	7 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule

How the results connect

37 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link WNY Flash Pre- I to Cleveland Force Pre- Blue through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

5 favour us

4 even

28 favour them

-2.7 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +1.80 · 2nd hardest of 7

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Nov 7 03:15 PM	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue 1st · 6-1-0 · GD +39	Away far trip Lost Nations Sports Park - West	●●●●● Very tough	20%	1–3	0.75	2.25	Upside
Sat Nov 7 10:15 AM	Cleveland Force Pre- White 5th · 3-1-2 · GD +2	Away far trip Lost Nations Sports Park - West	●●○○○ Lean win	62%	2–1	2.04	2.22	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Cleveland Force Pre- Blue

+39

2.71

WDWWW

-0.82

+1.83

100%

1.1

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Manta Pre (9th)	9–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (4th)	6–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	North FC Pre- East (7th)	9–1
D	Sat Aug 29	vs	Grasshoppers FC Teal (3rd)	2–2
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black (6th)	6–1
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	Kings Hammer SC Columbus (8th)	8–0
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	Cleveland Force Pre- White (5th)	4–0

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs WNY Flash Pre- I See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	WNY Flash Pre- I (2nd)	3–1	65%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

WNY Flash Pre- I

+19

2.50

WWWLW

-0.87

+1.80

100%

2.3

W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (4th)	2–1
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Grasshoppers FC Teal (3rd)	1–2
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black (6th)	5–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Kings Hammer SC Columbus (8th)	9–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Manta Pre (9th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	North FC Pre- East (7th)	4–0

Next: Sat Nov 7 at Cleveland Force Pre- Blue · Sat Nov 7 at Cleveland Force Pre- White See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (1st)	1–3	20%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Cleveland Force Pre- White (5th)	2–1	62%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Grasshoppers FC Teal

2.00

LDDWW

+0.40

-3.10

98%

2.9

W	Sun Oct 4	vs	WNY Flash Pre- I (2nd)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (4th)	2–0
D	Sat Aug 29	at	Cleveland Force Pre- White (5th)	0–0
D	Sat Aug 29	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (1st)	2–2
L	Sun Aug 23	at	Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black (6th)	2–3
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Manta Pre (9th)	6–3
W	Sat Aug 22	at	North FC Pre- East (7th)	4–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Kings Hammer SC Columbus See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Kings Hammer SC Columbus (8th)	4–1	89%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre

+11

1.88

WLLWW

-0.08

—

84%

4.1

Cleveland Force Pre- White

1.67

LWDLW

-0.07

-0.14

18%

4.8

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	North FC Pre- East (7th)	4–1
L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (4th)	0–3
D	Sat Aug 29	vs	Grasshoppers FC Teal (3rd)	0–0
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black (6th)	3–0
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (1st)	0–4
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	Kings Hammer SC Columbus (8th)	5–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Manta Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs WNY Flash Pre- I See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Manta Pre (9th)	3–1	79%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	WNY Flash Pre- I (2nd)	1–2	20%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black

1.50

LLLLW

-0.09

—

5.8

North FC Pre- East

-27

0.43

WLLLL

+0.88

-3.10

7.5

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (4th)	0–7
L	Sun Oct 18	at	Cleveland Force Pre- White (5th)	1–4
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (1st)	1–9
L	Sun Sep 13	at	WNY Flash Pre- I (2nd)	0–4
W	Tue Sep 1	vs	Manta Pre (9th)	3–1
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black (6th)	0–5
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Grasshoppers FC Teal (3rd)	2–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Kings Hammer SC Columbus See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Kings Hammer SC Columbus (8th)	2–2	41%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Kings Hammer SC Columbus

-31

0.17

LLLDL

+0.63

-0.82

8.0

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black (6th)	1–9
D	Sat Oct 17	at	Manta Pre (9th)	1–1
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	WNY Flash Pre- I (2nd)	1–9
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (4th)	1–5
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (1st)	0–8
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Cleveland Force Pre- White (5th)	2–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs North FC Pre- East · Sun Oct 25 vs Grasshoppers FC Teal See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	North FC Pre- East (7th)	2–2	41%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Grasshoppers FC Teal (3rd)	1–4	5%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Manta Pre

-23

0.14

LLLDL

+0.29

+0.14

8.5

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (1st)	0–9
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	Kings Hammer SC Columbus (8th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	WNY Flash Pre- I (2nd)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (4th)	1–5
L	Tue Sep 1	at	North FC Pre- East (7th)	1–3
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black (6th)	0–2
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Grasshoppers FC Teal (3rd)	3–6

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Cleveland Force Pre- White See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Cleveland Force Pre- White (5th)	1–3	9%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.54 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.