Cleveland Force Pre- Blue

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Ohio Valley BU12 (2014-2015) 9v9 · 9 teams · Cleveland Force SC (all teams)

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1st

6-1-0 record · 7 played

2.71 points per game

+39 goal diff · 44–5

WDWWWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.1

-0.77 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 7, 03:15 PM

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Cleveland Force Pre- Blue
1st · 2.71 PPG

WNY Flash Pre- I
2nd · 2.50 PPG

Lost Nations Sports Park - West , Field 1 ↗

65% 16% 19%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.1 for, 1.7 against · 2.11 expected points)

Season so far	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue	WNY Flash Pre- I
Position	1st	2nd
Record (W-D-L)	6-1-0	5-0-1
Points per game	2.71	2.50
Goals for / game	6.3	4.0
Goals against / game	0.7	0.8
Clean sheets	3	2
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	W W W D W	W L W W W
Biggest win	9–0 vs Manta Pre	9–1 at Kings Hammer SC Columbus
Worst loss	—	1–2 at Grasshoppers FC Teal
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+3.44	+1.82
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.77	-0.84

Common opponents: Kings Hammer SC Columbus — we 8–0; they 9–1. Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black — we 6–1; they 5–1. Grasshoppers FC Teal — we 2–2; they 1–2. North FC Pre- East — we 9–1; they 4–0. Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre — we 6–1; they 2–1. Manta Pre — we 9–0; they 3–0.

Game plan

Respect their attack
WNY Flash Pre- I score 4.0/game — well above the league's 2.5.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Hard to break down
WNY Flash Pre- I concede only 0.8/game with 2 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Swing game — small margins
Win 65% / draw 16% / loss 19%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the WNY Flash Pre- I game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Cleveland Force Pre- Blue – WNY Flash Pre- I) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.75 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 2.75 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.50 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Loss 2.38 PPG	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

90% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.1 average finish

1st 90%
2nd 10%
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

40 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Cleveland Force Pre- Blue to WNY Flash Pre- I through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

30 favour us

5 even

5 favour them

+2.8 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

14 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +1.82 · 2nd hardest of 5

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Nov 7 03:15 PM	WNY Flash Pre- I 2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +19	Home Lost Nations Sports Park - West	●●○○○ Lean win	65%	3–1	2.11	2.64	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Cleveland Force Pre- Blue

+39

2.71

WDWWW

-0.77

+1.82

100%

1.1

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Manta Pre (9th)	9–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (4th)	6–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	North FC Pre- East (7th)	9–1
D	Sat Aug 29	vs	Grasshoppers FC Teal (3rd)	2–2
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black (6th)	6–1
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	Kings Hammer SC Columbus (8th)	8–0
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	Cleveland Force Pre- White (5th)	4–0

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs WNY Flash Pre- I See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	WNY Flash Pre- I (2nd)	3–1	65%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

WNY Flash Pre- I

+19

2.50

WWWLW

-0.84

+1.94

100%

2.4

W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (4th)	2–1
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Grasshoppers FC Teal (3rd)	1–2
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black (6th)	5–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Kings Hammer SC Columbus (8th)	9–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Manta Pre (9th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	North FC Pre- East (7th)	4–0

Next: Sat Nov 7 at Cleveland Force Pre- Blue · Sat Nov 7 at Cleveland Force Pre- White See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (1st)	1–3	19%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Cleveland Force Pre- White (5th)	2–1	56%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Grasshoppers FC Teal

2.00

LDDWW

+0.43

-2.92

97%

2.9

W	Sun Oct 4	vs	WNY Flash Pre- I (2nd)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (4th)	2–0
D	Sat Aug 29	at	Cleveland Force Pre- White (5th)	0–0
D	Sat Aug 29	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (1st)	2–2
L	Sun Aug 23	at	Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black (6th)	2–3
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Manta Pre (9th)	6–3
W	Sat Aug 22	at	North FC Pre- East (7th)	4–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Kings Hammer SC Columbus See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Kings Hammer SC Columbus (8th)	4–1	88%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre

+11

1.88

WLLWW

-0.02

—

77%

4.1

Cleveland Force Pre- White

1.86

WDLWW

-0.41

+1.82

26%

4.5

W	Sat Oct 24	vs	Manta Pre (9th)	4–0
W	Sun Oct 18	vs	North FC Pre- East (7th)	4–1
L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (4th)	0–3
D	Sat Aug 29	vs	Grasshoppers FC Teal (3rd)	0–0
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black (6th)	3–0
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (1st)	0–4
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	Kings Hammer SC Columbus (8th)	5–2

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs WNY Flash Pre- I See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	WNY Flash Pre- I (2nd)	1–2	24%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black

1.50

LLLLW

-0.03

—

6.0

North FC Pre- East

-27

0.50

LLLLD

+0.34

—

7.0

Kings Hammer SC Columbus

-31

0.29

LLDLD

+0.15

+0.80

8.0

D	Sat Oct 24	vs	North FC Pre- East (7th)	1–1
L	Sun Oct 18	at	Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black (6th)	1–9
D	Sat Oct 17	at	Manta Pre (9th)	1–1
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	WNY Flash Pre- I (2nd)	1–9
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (4th)	1–5
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (1st)	0–8
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Cleveland Force Pre- White (5th)	2–5

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Grasshoppers FC Teal See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Grasshoppers FC Teal (3rd)	1–4	5%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Manta Pre

-27

0.13

LLDLL

+0.35

—

9.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.47 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.