Mercury Pre- 1

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Ohio Valley BU10 (2016-2017) 7v7 · 6 teams · Mercury (all teams)

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2nd

4-1-3 record · 8 played

1.63 points per game

+6 goal diff · 21–15

WLDWWlast 5

99% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.9

-0.27 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 01:00 PM

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Mercury Pre- 1
2nd · 1.63 PPG

Columbus Force Pre
5th · 1.20 PPG

Havener Park, HP 01 ↗ far trip

38% 18% 44%

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.6 for, 2.7 against · 1.33 expected points)

Season so far	Mercury Pre- 1	Columbus Force Pre
Position	2nd	5th
Record (W-D-L)	4-1-3	2-0-3
Points per game	1.63	1.20
Goals for / game	2.6	3.6
Goals against / game	1.9	3.2
Clean sheets	1	0
Held scoreless	1	0
Form (recent first)	W W D L W	L W L L W
Biggest win	6–2 at Total Futbol Academy Elite	6–1 at Total Futbol Academy Elite
Worst loss	1–4 at FC Pride Elite Pre	2–5 at FC Pride Elite Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.49	+0.46
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.27	+0.45

Already played this season: Sat Oct 17 3–1 vs Columbus Force Pre (W)

Common opponents: FC Pride Elite Pre — we 1–4, 0–1; they 2–5, 1–3. Louisville City Academy Pre — we 3–4; they 8–4. Total Futbol Academy Elite — we 6–2, 1–1; they 6–1.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs FC Pride Elite Pre.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 38%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff 01:00 PM at Havener Park.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Columbus Force Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Mercury Pre- 1 – Columbus Force Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 1.56 PPG	2nd— holds	3rd▼ down 1	4th▼ down 2
Win 1.78 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Draw 1.56 PPG	2nd— holds	3rd▼ down 1	4th▼ down 2
Loss 1.44 PPG	4th▼ down 2	3rd▼ down 1	4th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

99% top 4

1% below the top 4

2.9 average finish

1st
2nd 37%
3rd 38%
4th 25%
5th 1%
6th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 1.90 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	FC Pride Elite Pre	2.70 (+1.07)	1st (2.70)	14 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule

How the results connect

45 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Mercury Pre- 1 to Columbus Force Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

18 favour us

6 even

21 favour them

-1.1 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

15 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.19 · 2nd hardest of 5

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Oct 25 01:00 PM	Columbus Force Pre 5th · 2-0-3 · GD +2	Away far trip Havener Park	●●●●○ Tough	38%	2–2	1.33	1.59	Upside
Sun Nov 8 04:30 PM	Louisville City Academy Pre 3rd · 3-0-3 · GD -2	Home Miami White Water Soccer Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	59%	3–2	1.92	1.62	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

FC Pride Elite Pre

+22

2.70

WWWLW

-0.37

—

100%

1.0

Mercury Pre- 1

1.63

WLDWW

-0.27

+0.19

99%

2.9

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (6th)	3–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Columbus Force Pre (5th)	3–1
D	Fri Oct 16	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	1–1
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre (1st)	0–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (6th)	4–2
W	Fri Sep 11	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	6–2
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Louisville City Academy Pre (3rd)	3–4
L	Sun Aug 23	at	FC Pride Elite Pre (1st)	1–4

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Columbus Force Pre · Sun Nov 8 vs Louisville City Academy Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Columbus Force Pre (5th)	2–2	38%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Louisville City Academy Pre (3rd)	3–2	59%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Louisville City Academy Pre

-2

1.50

LLWWL

+0.24

-0.42

91%

3.3

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre (1st)	4–5
W	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre (1st)	3–2
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (6th)	6–4
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	3–4
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Columbus Force Pre (5th)	4–8
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Mercury Pre- 1 (2nd)	4–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Columbus Force Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Total Futbol Academy Elite · Sat Nov 7 vs Lexington Sporting Academy Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Columbus Force Pre (5th)	4–4	41%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	4–2	66%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (6th)	5–2	76%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Mercury Pre- 1 (2nd)	2–3	26%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Total Futbol Academy Elite

-11

1.25

WLWDL

+0.13

+0.19

18%

4.8

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Columbus Force Pre (5th)	1–6
D	Fri Oct 16	at	Mercury Pre- 1 (2nd)	1–1
W	Sun Oct 11	at	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (6th)	4–3
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre (1st)	1–4
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (6th)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Louisville City Academy Pre (3rd)	4–3
L	Sun Sep 13	at	FC Pride Elite Pre (1st)	1–3
L	Fri Sep 11	vs	Mercury Pre- 1 (2nd)	2–6

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Columbus Force Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Louisville City Academy Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Columbus Force Pre (5th)	2–4	17%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Louisville City Academy Pre (3rd)	2–4	21%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Columbus Force Pre

1.20

WLLWL

+0.45

-0.77

91%

3.1

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Mercury Pre- 1 (2nd)	1–3
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	6–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	FC Pride Elite Pre (1st)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 12	at	FC Pride Elite Pre (1st)	2–5
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Louisville City Academy Pre (3rd)	8–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Lexington Sporting Academy Pre · Sat Oct 24 at Louisville City Academy Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs Mercury Pre- 1 See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (6th)	4–2	70%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Louisville City Academy Pre (3rd)	4–4	45%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Mercury Pre- 1 (2nd)	2–2	44%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	4–2	71%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (6th)	4–2	80%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lexington Sporting Academy Pre

-17

0.00

LLLLL

+0.28

6.0

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Mercury Pre- 1 (2nd)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Louisville City Academy Pre (3rd)	4–6
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	3–4
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre (1st)	0–4
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 19	at	FC Pride Elite Pre (1st)	1–5
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Mercury Pre- 1 (2nd)	2–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Columbus Force Pre · Sun Nov 1 at Columbus Force Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Louisville City Academy Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Columbus Force Pre (5th)	2–4	18%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Columbus Force Pre (5th)	2–4	11%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Louisville City Academy Pre (3rd)	2–5	14%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.02 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.