TableChase Clubs

Columbus Force Pre

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Ohio Valley BU10 (2016-2017) 7v7 · 6 teams · Columbus Force SC (all teams)

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5th
2-0-3 record · 5 played
1.20 points per game
+2 goal diff · 18–16
WLLWLlast 5
92% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.0
+0.45 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM

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Columbus Force Pre
5th · 1.20 PPG
at
Lexington Sporting Academy Pre
6th · 0.00 PPG

Lexington Sporting Club Youth Complex, field 2 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 4–2 (expected goals 4.2 for, 2.4 against · 2.22 expected points)

Season so farColumbus Force PreLexington Sporting Academy Pre
Position5th6th
Record (W-D-L)2-0-30-0-7
Points per game1.200.00
Goals for / game3.61.7
Goals against / game3.24.1
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless02
Form (recent first)L W L L WL L L L L
Biggest win6–1 at Total Futbol Academy Elite—
Worst loss2–5 at FC Pride Elite Pre1–5 at FC Pride Elite Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.46-1.65
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.45+0.28

Common opponents: Louisville City Academy Pre — we 8–4; they 4–6. FC Pride Elite Pre — we 2–5, 1–3; they 1–5, 0–4. Total Futbol Academy Elite — we 6–1; they 2–3, 3–4. Mercury Pre- 1 — we 1–3; they 2–4, 0–3.

Game plan

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 70% / draw 13% / loss 18%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Lexington Sporting Academy Pre have lost 7 straight (form: LLLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 01:00 PM at Lexington Sporting Club Youth Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Total Futbol Academy Elite sit 4th on 1.25 PPG; we are on 1.20.

    A point moves us above Total Futbol Academy Elite on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Lexington Sporting Academy Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Columbus Force Pre – Lexington Sporting Academy Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.50 PPG		 3rd▲ up 2 3rd▲ up 2 3rd▲ up 2
Win
1.50 PPG		 3rd▲ up 2 3rd▲ up 2 3rd▲ up 2
Draw
1.17 PPG		 5th— holds 5th— holds 5th— holds
Loss
1.00 PPG		 5th— holds 5th— holds 5th— holds

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 4–2 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
92% top 4
8% below the top 4
3.0 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd 40%
  3. 3rd 27%
  4. 4th 25%
  5. 5th 8%
  6. 6th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 5 remaining known games (max 2.10 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 FC Pride Elite Pre 2.70 (+1.50) 1st (2.70) 21 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Mercury Pre- 1 1.63 (+0.43) 2nd (1.62) 11 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection
3 Louisville City Academy Pre 1.50 (+0.30) 4th (1.58) Win next game
4 Total Futbol Academy Elite 1.25 (+0.05) 5th (1.14) A point next game

How the results connect

55 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Columbus Force Pre to Lexington Sporting Academy Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

43 favour us
5 even
7 favour them
+2.9 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–3 4–2 3–0 2–5 5–1 4–0 1–3 6–1 3–2 4–3 8–4 6–4 3–1 1–0 Columbus Force Pre 5th Mercury Pre- 1 2nd FC Pride Elite Pre 1st Total Futbol Academ… 4th Louisville City Aca… 3rd Lexington Sporting … 6th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

15 game days

1st 3rd 6th Aug 23 Sep 11 Sep 19 Oct 4 Oct 16 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.77 · 5th hardest of 5

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
01:00 PM		 Lexington Sporting Academy Pre
6th · 0-0-7 · GD -17		 Away far trip
Lexington Sporting Club Youth Complex		 ●●○○○ Lean win
70%		 4–2 2.22 1.37 Swing game
Sat Oct 24
05:00 PM		 Louisville City Academy Pre
3rd · 3-0-3 · GD -2		 Away far trip
Lynn Family Sports Vision & Training Facility		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
45%		 4–4 1.48 1.39 Swing game
Sun Oct 25
01:00 PM		 Mercury Pre- 1
2nd · 4-1-3 · GD +6		 Home
Havener Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
44%		 2–2 1.50 1.40 Swing game
Sun Oct 25
10:00 AM		 Total Futbol Academy Elite
4th · 3-1-4 · GD -11		 Home
Havener Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
71%		 4–2 2.25 1.49 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
01:00 PM		 Lexington Sporting Academy Pre
6th · 0-0-7 · GD -17		 Home
Havener Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
80%		 4–2 2.49 1.59 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 FC Pride Elite Pre 10901 3614+22 272.70 WWWLW -0.37 — 100% 1.0
2 Mercury Pre- 1 8413 2115+6 131.63 WLDWW -0.27 +0.19 99% 2.9
3 Louisville City Academy Pre 6303 2426-2 91.50 LLWWL +0.24 -0.42 90% 3.3
4 Total Futbol Academy Elite 8314 1728-11 101.25 WLWDL +0.13 +0.19 19% 4.8
5 Columbus Force Pre 5203 1816+2 61.20 WLLWL +0.45 -0.77 92% 3.0
6 Lexington Sporting Academy Pre 7007 1229-17 00.00 LLLLL +0.28 +0.28 0% 6.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.02 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.