TableChase Clubs

WNY Flash Rochester Pre

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Ohio Valley BU10 (2016-2017) 7v7 · 11 teams · WNY Flash Academy (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 16 hours ago.
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6th
4-0-5 record · 9 played
1.33 points per game
-4 goal diff · 35–39
LWLWLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.0
-0.31 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 14, 01:15 PM

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WNY Flash Rochester Pre
6th · 1.33 PPG
vs
Manta Pre
2nd · 2.63 PPG

Flash Fields, Field A1 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 2–5 (expected goals 2.9 for, 5.7 against · 0.48 expected points)

Season so farWNY Flash Rochester PreManta Pre
Position6th2nd
Record (W-D-L)4-0-57-0-1
Points per game1.332.63
Goals for / game3.96.5
Goals against / game4.32.4
Clean sheets21
Held scoreless21
Form (recent first)L W L W LW W L W W
Biggest win10–0 vs WNY Flash Pre10–0 at Team Challenger FC South 2016/17B Gold
Worst loss0–11 at Cleveland Force Pre- White0–3 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.44+3.00
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.31-0.18

Common opponents: Pacesetter SC Pre- Black — we 1–2; they 7–1. Ohio Premier Academy Pre- Black — we 3–8; they 7–2. Ohio Premier Academy Pre- Grey — we 6–3; they 9–4. Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre — we 1–2; they 0–3. Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre — we 5–4; they 9–3. Cleveland Force Pre- Blue — we 0–9; they 6–3. Team Challenger FC South 2016/17B Gold — we 9–0; they 10–0. Cleveland Force Pre- White — we 0–11; they 4–3.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Manta Pre score 6.5/game — well above the league's 4.2.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–9 at Cleveland Force Pre- Blue, 0–11 at Cleveland Force Pre- White.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 13%; a draw (9%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Manta Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (WNY Flash Rochester Pre – Manta Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Nov 9 – Sun Nov 15); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.20 PPG		 6th— holds 6th— holds 6th— holds
Win
1.50 PPG		 6th— holds 6th— holds 6th— holds
Draw
1.30 PPG		 6th— holds 6th— holds 6th— holds
Loss
1.20 PPG		 6th— holds 6th— holds 6th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–5 loss we stay 6th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
6.0 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th 100%
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 1 remaining known games (max 1.50 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre 2.70 (+1.37) 1st (2.70) 15 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Manta Pre 2.63 (+1.30) 3rd (2.63) 15 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Cleveland Force Pre- White 2.57 (+1.24) 2nd (2.64) 14 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Ohio Premier Academy Pre- Black 2.00 (+0.67) 4th (1.97) 8 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 Cleveland Force Pre- Blue 1.71 (+0.38) 5th (1.84) 6 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule

How the results connect

55 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link WNY Flash Rochester Pre to Manta Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

11 favour us
2 even
42 favour them
-4.8 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
9–0 0–10 1–2 3–0 6–3 4–9 5–4 3–9 1–2 1–7 3–8 2–7 0–11 3–4 0–9 3–6 5–1 7–4 2–7 5–0 WNY Flash Rochester… 6th Team Challenger FC … 11th Pittsburgh Riverhou… 1st Ohio Premier Academ… 9th Pittsburgh Riverhou… 8th Pacesetter SC Pre- … 7th Ohio Premier Academ… 4th Cleveland Force Pre… 3rd Cleveland Force Pre… 5th Manta Pre 2nd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

16 game days

1st 6th 11th Aug 22 Sep 5 Sep 20 Oct 3 Oct 10 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +3.00 · 1st hardest of 8

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Nov 14
01:15 PM		 Manta Pre
2nd · 7-0-1 · GD +33		 Home
Flash Fields		 ●●●●● Very tough
13%		 2–5 0.48 1.25 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre 10901 6711+56 272.70 WWWLW -0.38 — 100% 1.8
2 Manta Pre 8701 5219+33 212.63 WWLWW -0.18 -1.59 100% 2.9
3 Cleveland Force Pre- White 7601 549+45 182.57 LWWWW -0.22 -0.85 100% 1.4
4 Ohio Premier Academy Pre- Black 6402 3921+18 122.00 LLWWW +0.11 -1.03 71% 4.3
5 Cleveland Force Pre- Blue 7403 2719+8 121.71 WWWLW +0.07 -0.85 30% 4.7
6 WNY Flash Rochester Pre 9405 3539-4 121.33 LWLWL -0.31 +3.00 0% 6.0
7 Pacesetter SC Pre- Black 10406 2844-16 121.20 LLLWL +0.25 — 0% 7.0
8 Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre 10307 3248-16 90.90 WLLLL +0.12 — 0% 8.0
9 Ohio Premier Academy Pre- Grey 6105 1735-18 30.50 LLLLW +0.11 -0.06 0% 9.2
10 WNY Flash Pre 6105 1440-26 30.50 LWLLL +0.30 +0.18 0% 9.8
11 Team Challenger FC South 2016/17B Gold 7007 282-80 00.00 LLLLL +1.29 -0.85 0% 11.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (4.22 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.