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Team Challenger FC South 2016/17B Gold

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Ohio Valley BU10 (2016-2017) 7v7 · 11 teams · Team Challenger FC South (all teams)

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11th
0-0-7 record · 7 played
0.00 points per game
-80 goal diff · 2–82
LLLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 11.0
+1.29 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 1, 01:00 PM

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Team Challenger FC South 2016/17B Gold
11th · 0.00 PPG
vs
Ohio Premier Academy Pre- Grey
9th · 0.50 PPG

Buckeye Woods Park, Field 1 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 2–6 (expected goals 2.2 for, 6.9 against · 0.18 expected points)

Season so farTeam Challenger FC South 2016/17B GoldOhio Premier Academy Pre- Grey
Position11th9th
Record (W-D-L)0-0-71-0-5
Points per game0.000.50
Goals for / game0.32.8
Goals against / game11.75.8
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless61
Form (recent first)L L L L LW L L L L
Biggest win—7–4 vs Pacesetter SC Pre- Black
Worst loss0–19 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre0–8 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-7.33-1.84
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+1.29+0.11

Common opponents: Pacesetter SC Pre- Black — we 0–10; they 7–4. Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre — we 0–19; they 0–8. Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre — we 0–11; they 1–5. Manta Pre — we 0–10; they 4–9. WNY Flash Rochester Pre — we 0–9; they 3–6.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 6 time(s): 0–16 at Cleveland Force Pre- White, 0–10 at Pacesetter SC Pre- Black, 0–19 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre, 0–11 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre, 0–10 vs Manta Pre, 0–9 vs WNY Flash Rochester Pre.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 4%; a draw (5%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Ohio Premier Academy Pre- Grey game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Team Challenger FC South 2016/17B Gold – Ohio Premier Academy Pre- Grey) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.00 PPG		 11th— holds 11th— holds 11th— holds
Win
0.38 PPG		 11th— holds 11th— holds 11th— holds
Draw
0.13 PPG		 11th— holds 11th— holds 11th— holds
Loss
0.00 PPG		 11th— holds 11th— holds 11th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–6 loss we stay 11th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
11.0 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th 100%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 0.90 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre 2.70 (+2.70) 1st (2.70) 27 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Manta Pre 2.63 (+2.63) 3rd (2.63) 27 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Cleveland Force Pre- White 2.57 (+2.57) 2nd (2.64) 26 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Ohio Premier Academy Pre- Black 2.00 (+2.00) 4th (1.97) 20 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 Cleveland Force Pre- Blue 1.71 (+1.71) 5th (1.84) 18 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6 WNY Flash Rochester Pre 1.33 (+1.33) 6th (1.25) 14 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
7 Pacesetter SC Pre- Black 1.20 (+1.20) 7th (1.20) 12 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
8 Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre 0.90 (+0.90) 8th (0.90) 9 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection
9 Ohio Premier Academy Pre- Grey 0.50 (+0.50) 9th (0.65) 5 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection
10 WNY Flash Pre 0.50 (+0.50) 10th (0.62) 5 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection

How the results connect

37 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Team Challenger FC South 2016/17B Gold to Ohio Premier Academy Pre- Grey through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
2 even
33 favour them
-7.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–10 9–4 0–9 6–3 0–11 5–1 0–19 8–0 0–10 4–7 9–3 2–7 2–1 10–0 3–2 1–2 0–5 4–0 0–16 11–0 Team Challenger FC … 11th Manta Pre 2nd WNY Flash Rochester… 6th Pittsburgh Riverhou… 8th Pittsburgh Riverhou… 1st Pacesetter SC Pre- … 7th Cleveland Force Pre… 5th Cleveland Force Pre… 3rd WNY Flash Pre 10th Ohio Premier Academ… 9th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

16 game days

1st 6th 11th Aug 22 Sep 5 Sep 20 Oct 3 Oct 10 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.85 · 6th hardest of 8

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Nov 1
01:00 PM		 Ohio Premier Academy Pre- Grey
9th · 1-0-5 · GD -18		 Home
Buckeye Woods Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
4%		 2–6 0.18 0.02 Upside
Sun Nov 1
10:00 AM		 Ohio Premier Academy Pre- Black
4th · 4-0-2 · GD +18		 Home
Buckeye Woods Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
0%		 1–9 0.01 0.02 Upside
Sat Nov 14
12:15 PM		 WNY Flash Pre
10th · 1-0-5 · GD -26		 Away far trip
Flash Fields		 ●●●●● Very tough
4%		 2–6 0.16 0.03 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre 10901 6711+56 272.70 WWWLW -0.38 — 100% 1.8
2 Manta Pre 8701 5219+33 212.63 WWLWW -0.18 -1.59 100% 2.9
3 Cleveland Force Pre- White 7601 549+45 182.57 LWWWW -0.22 -0.85 100% 1.3
4 Ohio Premier Academy Pre- Black 6402 3921+18 122.00 LLWWW +0.11 -1.03 69% 4.3
5 Cleveland Force Pre- Blue 7403 2719+8 121.71 WWWLW +0.07 -0.85 31% 4.7
6 WNY Flash Rochester Pre 9405 3539-4 121.33 LWLWL -0.31 +3.00 0% 6.0
7 Pacesetter SC Pre- Black 10406 2844-16 121.20 LLLWL +0.25 — 0% 7.0
8 Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre 10307 3248-16 90.90 WLLLL +0.12 — 0% 8.0
9 Ohio Premier Academy Pre- Grey 6105 1735-18 30.50 LLLLW +0.11 -0.06 0% 9.2
10 WNY Flash Pre 6105 1440-26 30.50 LWLLL +0.30 +0.18 0% 9.8
11 Team Challenger FC South 2016/17B Gold 7007 282-80 00.00 LLLLL +1.29 -0.85 0% 11.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (4.22 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.