Ohio Premier Academy Pre- Black

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Ohio Valley BU10 (2016-2017) 7v7 · 11 teams · Ohio Premier (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 16 hours ago.

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4th

4-0-2 record · 6 played

2.00 points per game

+18 goal diff · 39–21

LLWWWlast 5

71% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.3

+0.11 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 1, 10:00 AM

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Ohio Premier Academy Pre- Black
4th · 2.00 PPG

Team Challenger FC South 2016/17B Gold
11th · 0.00 PPG

Buckeye Woods Park, Field 1 ↗ far trip

99%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 9–1 (expected goals 11.7 for, 1.6 against · 2.98 expected points)

Season so far	Ohio Premier Academy Pre- Black	Team Challenger FC South 2016/17B Gold
Position	4th	11th
Record (W-D-L)	4-0-2	0-0-7
Points per game	2.00	0.00
Goals for / game	6.5	0.3
Goals against / game	3.5	11.7
Clean sheets	0	0
Held scoreless	0	6
Form (recent first)	W W W L L	L L L L L
Biggest win	11–2 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre	—
Worst loss	2–7 at Manta Pre	0–19 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+2.03	-7.33
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.11	+1.29

Common opponents: Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre — we 11–2; they 0–11. Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre — we 1–5; they 0–19. Manta Pre — we 2–7; they 0–10. WNY Flash Rochester Pre — we 8–3; they 0–9. Pacesetter SC Pre- Black — we 11–2; they 0–10.

Game plan

They struggle to score
Team Challenger FC South 2016/17B Gold average 0.3 goals/game (league avg 4.2); blanked in 6 of 7.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
They leak goals — be greedy
Team Challenger FC South 2016/17B Gold concede 11.7/game; worst result 0–19 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 99% chance; likely score 9–1.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Confidence is low on their side
Team Challenger FC South 2016/17B Gold have lost 7 straight (form: LLLLL).
Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
Away game
Kickoff 10:00 AM at Buckeye Woods Park.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Team Challenger FC South 2016/17B Gold game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Ohio Premier Academy Pre- Black – Team Challenger FC South 2016/17B Gold) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.14 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds
Win 2.14 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds
Draw 1.86 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds
Loss 1.71 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 9–1 win we stay 4th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

71% top 4

30% below the top 4

4.3 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd <1%
4th 70%
5th 30%
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th
11th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 2.40 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre	2.70 (+0.70)	1st (2.70)	15 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Manta Pre	2.63 (+0.63)	3rd (2.63)	15 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	Cleveland Force Pre- White	2.57 (+0.57)	2nd (2.64)	14 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule

How the results connect

37 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Ohio Premier Academy Pre- Black to Team Challenger FC South 2016/17B Gold through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

37 favour us

0 favour them

+13.2 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

16 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -1.03 · 7th hardest of 8

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Mon Jan 1 TBD no score posted	Ohio Premier Academy Pre- Grey 9th · 1-0-5 · GD -18	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	89%	7–2	2.72	2.10	Bank it
Sun Nov 1 10:00 AM	Team Challenger FC South 2016/17B Gold 11th · 0-0-7 · GD -80	Away far trip Buckeye Woods Park	●○○○○ Favorable	99%	9–1	2.98	2.21	Bank it
Sat Nov 7 03:15 PM	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue 5th · 4-0-3 · GD +8	Away far trip Sportsplex	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	4–3	1.56	2.14	Swing game
Sat Nov 7 05:45 PM	Cleveland Force Pre- White 3rd · 6-0-1 · GD +45	Away far trip Sportsplex	●●●●● Very tough	11%	2–6	0.41	1.97	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre

+56

2.70

WWWLW

-0.38

—

100%

1.8

Manta Pre

+33

2.63

WWLWW

-0.18

-1.59

100%

2.9

W	Tue Oct 6	at	Team Challenger FC South 2016/17B Gold (11th)	10–0
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (8th)	9–3
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (1st)	0–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Pacesetter SC Pre- Black (7th)	7–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Ohio Premier Academy Pre- Black (4th)	7–2
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Ohio Premier Academy Pre- Grey (9th)	9–4
W	Sun Aug 30	at	Cleveland Force Pre- White (3rd)	4–3
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (5th)	6–3

Next: Sat Nov 14 at WNY Flash Rochester Pre · Sat Nov 14 at WNY Flash Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 14	at	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (6th)	5–2	78%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	WNY Flash Pre (10th)	7–2	93%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cleveland Force Pre- White

+45

2.57

LWWWW

-0.22

-0.85

100%

1.4

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (6th)	11–0
W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (1st)	6–2
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (8th)	6–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Pacesetter SC Pre- Black (7th)	7–0
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Manta Pre (2nd)	3–4
W	Sun Aug 30	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (5th)	5–3
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Team Challenger FC South 2016/17B Gold (11th)	16–0

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Ohio Premier Academy Pre- Black · Sun Nov 8 vs Ohio Premier Academy Pre- Grey · Sun Nov 8 vs WNY Flash Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Ohio Premier Academy Pre- Black (4th)	6–2	81%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Ohio Premier Academy Pre- Grey (9th)	8–1	97%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	WNY Flash Pre (10th)	9–1	99%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Ohio Premier Academy Pre- Black

+18

2.00

LLWWW

+0.11

-1.03

71%

4.3

W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Pacesetter SC Pre- Black (7th)	11–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	WNY Flash Pre (10th)	6–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (6th)	8–3
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Manta Pre (2nd)	2–7
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (1st)	1–5
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (8th)	11–2

Next: Mon Jan 1 vs Ohio Premier Academy Pre- Grey · Sun Nov 1 at Team Challenger FC South 2016/17B Gold · Sat Nov 7 at Cleveland Force Pre- Blue See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	vs	Ohio Premier Academy Pre- Grey (9th)	7–2	89%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Team Challenger FC South 2016/17B Gold (11th)	9–1	99%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (5th)	4–3	47%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Cleveland Force Pre- White (3rd)	2–6	11%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cleveland Force Pre- Blue

1.71

WWWLW

+0.07

-0.85

30%

4.7

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Pacesetter SC Pre- Black (7th)	3–0
L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (1st)	0–5
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (8th)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (6th)	9–0
W	Tue Sep 22	at	Team Challenger FC South 2016/17B Gold (11th)	7–2
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Cleveland Force Pre- White (3rd)	3–5
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Manta Pre (2nd)	3–6

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Ohio Premier Academy Pre- Black · Sun Nov 8 vs WNY Flash Pre · Sun Nov 8 vs Ohio Premier Academy Pre- Grey See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Ohio Premier Academy Pre- Black (4th)	3–4	38%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	WNY Flash Pre (10th)	5–2	86%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Ohio Premier Academy Pre- Grey (9th)	5–2	80%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

WNY Flash Rochester Pre

-4

1.33

LWLWL

-0.31

+3.00

6.0

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Cleveland Force Pre- White (3rd)	0–11
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Team Challenger FC South 2016/17B Gold (11th)	9–0
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (5th)	0–9
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (8th)	5–4
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (1st)	1–2
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Ohio Premier Academy Pre- Grey (9th)	6–3
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Ohio Premier Academy Pre- Black (4th)	3–8
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	WNY Flash Pre (10th)	10–0
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Pacesetter SC Pre- Black (7th)	1–2

Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Manta Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Manta Pre (2nd)	2–5	13%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Pacesetter SC Pre- Black

-16

1.20

LLLWL

+0.25

—

7.0

Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre

-16

0.90

WLLLL

+0.12

—

8.0

Ohio Premier Academy Pre- Grey

-18

0.50

LLLLW

+0.11

-0.06

9.2

W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Pacesetter SC Pre- Black (7th)	7–4
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (6th)	3–6
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	WNY Flash Pre (10th)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Manta Pre (2nd)	4–9
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (8th)	1–5
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (1st)	0–8

Next: Mon Jan 1 at Ohio Premier Academy Pre- Black · Sun Nov 1 at Team Challenger FC South 2016/17B Gold · Sun Nov 8 at Cleveland Force Pre- White See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	at	Ohio Premier Academy Pre- Black (4th)	2–7	6%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Team Challenger FC South 2016/17B Gold (11th)	6–2	91%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Cleveland Force Pre- White (3rd)	1–8	1%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (5th)	2–5	11%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

WNY Flash Pre

-26

0.50

LWLLL

+0.30

+0.18

9.8

L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (1st)	2–12
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (8th)	4–5
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Ohio Premier Academy Pre- Black (4th)	2–6
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Ohio Premier Academy Pre- Grey (9th)	3–2
L	Sun Sep 20	at	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (6th)	0–10
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Pacesetter SC Pre- Black (7th)	3–5

Next: Sun Nov 8 at Cleveland Force Pre- Blue · Sun Nov 8 at Cleveland Force Pre- White · Sat Nov 14 vs Manta Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (5th)	2–5	7%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Cleveland Force Pre- White (3rd)	1–9	0%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Manta Pre (2nd)	2–7	3%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Team Challenger FC South 2016/17B Gold (11th)	6–2	92%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Team Challenger FC South 2016/17B Gold

-80

0.00

LLLLL

+1.29

-0.85

11.0

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (6th)	0–9
L	Tue Oct 6	vs	Manta Pre (2nd)	0–10
L	Tue Sep 22	vs	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (5th)	2–7
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (8th)	0–11
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (1st)	0–19
L	Sat Sep 5	at	Pacesetter SC Pre- Black (7th)	0–10
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Cleveland Force Pre- White (3rd)	0–16

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Ohio Premier Academy Pre- Grey · Sun Nov 1 vs Ohio Premier Academy Pre- Black · Sat Nov 14 at WNY Flash Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Ohio Premier Academy Pre- Grey (9th)	2–6	4%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Ohio Premier Academy Pre- Black (4th)	1–9	0%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	WNY Flash Pre (10th)	2–6	4%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (4.22 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.