Ohio Premier Academy Pre- Grey

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Buckeye Woods Park, Field 1 ↗ far trip

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 6–2 (expected goals 6.9 for, 2.2 against · 2.77 expected points)

Common opponents: Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre — we 0–8; they 0–19. Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre — we 1–5; they 0–11. Manta Pre — we 4–9; they 0–10. WNY Flash Rochester Pre — we 3–6; they 0–9. Pacesetter SC Pre- Black — we 7–4; they 0–10.

• They struggle to score
  Team Challenger FC South 2016/17B Gold average 0.3 goals/game (league avg 4.2); blanked in 6 of 7.

  A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

• They leak goals — be greedy
  Team Challenger FC South 2016/17B Gold concede 11.7/game; worst result 0–19 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre.

  Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–8 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Expected win — the trap is complacency
  Model gives a 91% chance; likely score 6–2.

  Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

• Confidence is low on their side
  Team Challenger FC South 2016/17B Gold have lost 7 straight (form: LLLLL).

  Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

• Away game
  Kickoff 01:00 PM at Buckeye Woods Park.

  Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

Where we'd sit after the Team Challenger FC South 2016/17B Gold game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Ohio Premier Academy Pre- Grey – Team Challenger FC South 2016/17B Gold) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? No. With a 6–2 win we stay 9th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

1. 1st
2. 2nd
3. 3rd
4. 4th
5. 5th
6. 6th
7. 7th <1%
8. 8th 3%
9. 9th 75%
10. 10th 21%
11. 11th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 1.50 PPG if we win out).