FC Dallas Youth Pre- Bailey

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- North Texas BU12 · 9 teams · FC Dallas Youth (all teams)

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5th

2-0-2 record · 4 played

1.50 points per game

+0 goal diff · 7–7

WWLLlast 4

22% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.2

-0.15 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 05:00 PM

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FC Dallas Youth Pre- Bailey
5th · 1.50 PPG

SOLAR PRE- KATIC
3rd · 2.20 PPG

Fairview Soccer Park , Field 6A ↗

14% 19% 68%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–2 (expected goals 0.9 for, 2.2 against · 0.60 expected points)

Season so far	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Bailey	SOLAR PRE- KATIC
Position	5th	3rd
Record (W-D-L)	2-0-2	3-2-0
Points per game	1.50	2.20
Goals for / game	1.8	2.4
Goals against / game	1.8	0.6
Clean sheets	1	3
Held scoreless	1	1
Form (recent first)	L L W W	D W W W D
Biggest win	4–2 vs DKSC Pre- Shams	5–0 vs Sting Pre- Agbetuyi
Worst loss	0–2 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.07	+1.11
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.15	+0.12

Common opponents: Sting Pre- Agbetuyi — we 2–0; they 5–0. SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN — we 1–3; they 2–2.

Game plan

Hard to break down
SOLAR PRE- KATIC concede only 0.6/game with 3 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 14%; a draw (19%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff 05:00 PM at Fairview Soccer Park .
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera sit 4th on 1.80 PPG; we are on 1.50.
A win moves us above FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the SOLAR PRE- KATIC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Dallas Youth Pre- Bailey – SOLAR PRE- KATIC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 1.20 PPG	6th▼ down 1	5th— holds	6th▼ down 1
Win 1.80 PPG	5th— holds	4th▲ up 1	6th▼ down 1
Draw 1.40 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	6th▼ down 1
Loss 1.20 PPG	6th▼ down 1	5th— holds	6th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–2 loss we stay 5th even if every rival loses, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

22% top 4

78% below the top 4

5.2 average finish

1st
2nd <1%
3rd 1%
4th 21%
5th 43%
6th 29%
7th 6%
8th <1%
9th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 2.25 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Malcolmson	2.60 (+1.10)	1st (2.42)	15 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN	2.50 (+1.00)	2nd (2.34)	14 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	SOLAR PRE- KATIC	2.20 (+0.70)	3rd (2.21)	12 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection
4	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera	1.80 (+0.30)	4th (1.55)	Win next game

How the results connect

12 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link FC Dallas Youth Pre- Bailey to SOLAR PRE- KATIC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us

1 even

10 favour them

-2.8 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.33 · 3rd hardest of 9

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 10 05:00 PM no score posted	Dallas Texans Pre- Martinez 6th · 2-1-2 · GD -1	Home Fairview Soccer Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	44%	1–1	1.59	1.52	Swing game
Sun Oct 25 05:00 PM	SOLAR PRE- KATIC 3rd · 3-2-0 · GD +9	Away Fairview Soccer Park	●●●●● Very tough	14%	0–2	0.60	1.36	Upside
Sun Nov 1 01:00 PM	Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Malcolmson 1st · 4-1-0 · GD +13	Away Fairview Soccer Park	●●●●● Very tough	10%	0–2	0.45	1.23	Upside
Sun Nov 8 11:00 AM	Fort Worth Vaqueros FC Pre 9th · 0-1-4 · GD -9	Home Fairview Soccer Park	●●○○○ Lean win	65%	2–1	2.13	1.35	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Malcolmson

+13

2.60

WWWDW

-0.35

+0.11

100%

1.8

W	Sun Oct 18	at	DKSC Pre- Shams (8th)	5–0
D	Sun Oct 11	vs	SOLAR PRE- KATIC (3rd)	0–0
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Fort Worth Vaqueros FC Pre (9th)	5–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Martinez (6th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera (4th)	3–0

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Bailey · Sat Nov 7 at SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN · Sun Nov 8 at Sting Pre- Agbetuyi See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Bailey (5th)	2–0	75%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN (2nd)	1–1	35%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Sting Pre- Agbetuyi (7th)	3–0	88%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN

+14

2.50

DWWW

-0.57

+0.14

100%

1.8

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Sting Pre- Agbetuyi (7th)	5–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Bailey (5th)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 27	at	DKSC Pre- Shams (8th)	7–0
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	SOLAR PRE- KATIC (3rd)	2–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Dallas Texans Pre- Martinez · Sun Oct 25 at Fort Worth Vaqueros FC Pre · Thu Oct 29 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Martinez (6th)	2–0	69%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Fort Worth Vaqueros FC Pre (9th)	3–0	87%
·	Thu Oct 29	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera (4th)	2–1	71%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Malcolmson (1st)	1–1	42%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SOLAR PRE- KATIC

2.20

DWWWD

+0.12

-0.49

99%

2.5

D	Sun Oct 11	at	Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Malcolmson (1st)	0–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Sting Pre- Agbetuyi (7th)	5–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Martinez (6th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Fort Worth Vaqueros FC Pre (9th)	2–1
D	Sun Sep 13	at	SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN (2nd)	2–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Bailey · Sun Nov 1 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera · Sun Nov 8 at DKSC Pre- Shams See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Bailey (5th)	2–0	68%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera (4th)	1–1	52%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	DKSC Pre- Shams (8th)	3–0	87%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera

1.80

LWWLW

-0.61

+0.91

64%

4.3

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Fort Worth Vaqueros FC Pre (9th)	3–0
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Sting Pre- Agbetuyi (7th)	2–3
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Bailey (5th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	DKSC Pre- Shams (8th)	4–1
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Malcolmson (1st)	0–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Dallas Texans Pre- Martinez · Thu Oct 29 at SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN · Sun Nov 1 vs SOLAR PRE- KATIC See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Martinez (6th)	1–1	53%
·	Thu Oct 29	at	SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN (2nd)	1–2	14%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	SOLAR PRE- KATIC (3rd)	1–1	25%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Dallas Youth Pre- Bailey

1.50

WWLL

-0.15

+0.33

22%

5.2

L	Sat Oct 17	at	SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN (2nd)	1–3
L	Sun Oct 4	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera (4th)	0–2
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Sting Pre- Agbetuyi (7th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	DKSC Pre- Shams (8th)	4–2

Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Dallas Texans Pre- Martinez · Sun Oct 25 at SOLAR PRE- KATIC · Sun Nov 1 at Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Malcolmson See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Martinez (6th)	1–1	44%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	SOLAR PRE- KATIC (3rd)	0–2	14%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Malcolmson (1st)	0–2	10%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Fort Worth Vaqueros FC Pre (9th)	2–1	65%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Dallas Texans Pre- Martinez

-1

1.40

WWLLD

-0.33

+0.70

15%

5.5

D	Sun Oct 11	vs	DKSC Pre- Shams (8th)	0–0
L	Sun Sep 27	at	SOLAR PRE- KATIC (3rd)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Malcolmson (1st)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Fort Worth Vaqueros FC Pre (9th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Sting Pre- Agbetuyi (7th)	3–1

Next: Sat Oct 10 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Bailey · Sat Oct 24 vs SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN · Sun Oct 25 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Bailey (5th)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN (2nd)	0–2	13%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera (4th)	1–1	23%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting Pre- Agbetuyi

-13

0.60

LLLWL

+0.64

-0.45

7.3

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN (2nd)	0–5
W	Sun Oct 11	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera (4th)	3–2
L	Sun Oct 4	at	SOLAR PRE- KATIC (3rd)	0–5
L	Sun Sep 27	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Bailey (5th)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Martinez (6th)	1–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs DKSC Pre- Shams · Sun Nov 1 vs Fort Worth Vaqueros FC Pre · Sun Nov 8 vs Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Malcolmson See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	DKSC Pre- Shams (8th)	2–1	51%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Fort Worth Vaqueros FC Pre (9th)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Malcolmson (1st)	0–3	4%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

DKSC Pre- Shams

-17

0.33

LLDDL

+0.39

-0.14

8.3

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Malcolmson (1st)	0–5
D	Sun Oct 11	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Martinez (6th)	0–0
D	Sun Oct 4	at	Fort Worth Vaqueros FC Pre (9th)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN (2nd)	0–7
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera (4th)	1–4
L	Sun Sep 13	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Bailey (5th)	2–4

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Sting Pre- Agbetuyi · Sun Nov 8 vs SOLAR PRE- KATIC See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Sting Pre- Agbetuyi (7th)	1–2	29%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	SOLAR PRE- KATIC (3rd)	0–3	5%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Fort Worth Vaqueros FC Pre

-9

0.20

LLLDL

+0.18

+0.11

8.2

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Vera (4th)	0–3
D	Sun Oct 4	vs	DKSC Pre- Shams (8th)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Malcolmson (1st)	1–5
L	Sun Sep 20	at	SOLAR PRE- KATIC (3rd)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Martinez (6th)	0–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN · Sun Nov 1 at Sting Pre- Agbetuyi · Sun Nov 8 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Bailey See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN (2nd)	0–3	5%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Sting Pre- Agbetuyi (7th)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Bailey (5th)	1–2	17%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.74 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.