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Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Luna

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- North Texas BU11 · 10 teams · Atletico Dallas Youth (all teams)

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2nd
3-2-1 record · 6 played
1.83 points per game
+6 goal diff · 18–12
LWDWWlast 5
98% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.3
+0.16 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 09:30 AM

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Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Luna
2nd · 1.83 PPG
at
Kernow Storm FC Pre Reyes
8th · 1.00 PPG

Fairview Soccer Park , Field 6A ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.7 for, 2.3 against · 1.60 expected points)

Season so farAtletico Dallas Youth Pre- LunaKernow Storm FC Pre Reyes
Position2nd8th
Record (W-D-L)3-2-11-3-2
Points per game1.831.00
Goals for / game3.02.5
Goals against / game2.02.3
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)W W D W LW D D D L
Biggest win4–1 vs Alpha Forms Pre5–0 at Nido Dallas Pre - Rivas
Worst loss1–2 at SOLAR PRE- PAEZ0–2 vs Alpha Forms Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.72+0.04
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.16-0.36

Common opponents: Alpha Forms Pre — we 4–1; they 0–2. DKSC Pre De La Cruz — we 2–2; they 1–3. Kernow Storm FC Pre Bradford — we 4–2; they 3–3. FC Dallas Youth Pre- Redzic — we 4–2; they 3–3.

Game plan

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 47% / draw 18% / loss 34%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:30 AM at Fairview Soccer Park .

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:30 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Kernow Storm FC Pre Reyes game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Luna – Kernow Storm FC Pre Reyes) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.71 PPG		 2nd— holds 2nd— holds 3rd▼ down 1
Win
2.00 PPG		 2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Draw
1.71 PPG		 2nd— holds 2nd— holds 3rd▼ down 1
Loss
1.57 PPG		 3rd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 1 4th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

5% finish 1st
98% top 4
2% below the top 4
2.3 average finish
  1. 1st 5%
  2. 2nd 69%
  3. 3rd 18%
  4. 4th 6%
  5. 5th 2%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 2.13 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 FC Dallas Youth Pre- P Reyes 2.67 (+0.84) 1st (2.49) 11 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule

How the results connect

23 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Luna to Kernow Storm FC Pre Reyes through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

13 favour us
3 even
7 favour them
+1.3 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
4–2 3–3 4–2 3–3 2–2 3–1 4–1 2–0 0–2 3–3 4–1 0–5 1–2 2–3 3–1 1–2 2–2 2–2 1–5 Atletico Dallas You… 2nd FC Dallas Youth Pre… 3rd Kernow Storm FC Pre… 9th DKSC Pre De La Cruz 5th Alpha Forms Pre 4th SOLAR PRE- PAEZ 7th SOLAR PRE- DE SOUSA 6th Nido Dallas Pre - R… 10th Kernow Storm FC Pre… 8th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

6 game days

1st 5th 10th Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.72 · 9th hardest of 10

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
09:30 AM		 Kernow Storm FC Pre Reyes
8th · 1-3-2 · GD +1		 Away
Fairview Soccer Park 		●●●○○ Toss-up
47%		 2–2 1.60 1.80 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
08:00 AM		 Nido Dallas Pre - Rivas
10th · 1-0-5 · GD -13		 Home
Fairview Soccer Park 		●○○○○ Favorable
82%		 3–1 2.57 1.90 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 FC Dallas Youth Pre- P Reyes 6510 2311+12 162.67 WWWWW -0.06 +0.20 100% 1.1
2 Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Luna 6321 1812+6 111.83 LWDWW +0.16 -0.72 98% 2.3
3 FC Dallas Youth Pre- Redzic 6312 1612+4 101.67 WLDWL -0.28 +0.61 73% 3.9
4 Alpha Forms Pre 6303 1615+1 91.50 LLLWW +0.03 -0.30 57% 4.5
5 DKSC Pre De La Cruz 6222 1111+0 81.33 WWDLD +0.15 -0.12 30% 5.4
6 SOLAR PRE- DE SOUSA 6222 1317-4 81.33 LWWDL +0.19 -0.73 24% 5.6
7 SOLAR PRE- PAEZ 6213 1213-1 71.17 WLLLD +0.07 -0.13 15% 6.4
8 Kernow Storm FC Pre Reyes 6132 1514+1 61.00 LDDDW -0.36 +1.02 3% 7.7
9 Kernow Storm FC Pre Bradford 6123 1319-6 50.83 LDWLL +0.12 +0.01 1% 8.3
10 Nido Dallas Pre - Rivas 6105 619-13 30.50 WLLLL -0.02 +0.17 0% 9.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.37 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.