SOLAR PRE- MARTINEZ

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- North Texas BU10 · 11 teams · Solar SC (all teams)

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4th

4-2-0 record · 6 played

2.33 points per game

+13 goal diff · 17–4

WDWWWlast 5

87% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.0

-0.37 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:30 PM

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SOLAR PRE- MARTINEZ
4th · 2.33 PPG

SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN
2nd · 2.50 PPG

Fairview Soccer Park , Field 4A ↗

39% 19% 42%

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.3 for, 2.4 against · 1.35 expected points)

Season so far	SOLAR PRE- MARTINEZ	SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN
Position	4th	2nd
Record (W-D-L)	4-2-0	5-0-1
Points per game	2.33	2.50
Goals for / game	2.8	6.7
Goals against / game	0.7	1.8
Clean sheets	3	2
Held scoreless	1	0
Form (recent first)	W W W D W	W W W L W
Biggest win	6–0 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Central Mata	9–0 vs SOLAR PRE- TREMBLAY
Worst loss	—	1–5 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.41	+2.93
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.37	-0.49

Common opponents: Sting Pre- Workman — we 0–0; they 4–2. Atletico Dallas Youth Pre Hernandez — we 2–1; they 9–2. FC Dallas Youth Pre- Central Mata — we 6–0; they 10–2. SOLAR PRE- TREMBLAY — we 3–0; they 9–0.

Game plan

Respect their attack
SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN score 6.7/game — well above the league's 2.8.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 at Sting Pre- Workman.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 39%; a draw (19%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
They arrive in form
SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN have won 3 straight.
Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
What a win does
Sting WTX Pre- Albarado sit 3rd on 2.38 PPG; we are on 2.33.
A point moves us above Sting WTX Pre- Albarado on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SOLAR PRE- MARTINEZ – SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 2.14 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds
Win 2.43 PPG	2nd▲ up 2	2nd▲ up 2	2nd▲ up 2
Draw 2.14 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds
Loss 2.00 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 4th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

1% finish 1st

87% top 4

13% below the top 4

4.0 average finish

1st 1%
2nd 7%
3rd 1%
4th 78%
5th 13%
6th <1%
7th
8th
9th
10th
11th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans	3.00 (+0.67)	1st (2.83)	10 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN	2.50 (+0.17)	2nd (2.42)	6 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 6 for their projection
3	Sting WTX Pre- Albarado	2.38 (+0.05)	3rd (2.38)	A point next game

How the results connect

22 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link SOLAR PRE- MARTINEZ to SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us

3 even

15 favour them

-2.5 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +3.21 · 1st hardest of 10

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 12:30 PM	SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN 2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +29	Home Fairview Soccer Park	●●●●○ Tough	39%	2–2	1.35	2.19	Upside
Sat Oct 31 09:30 AM	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +28	Home Fairview Soccer Park	●●●●● Very tough	22%	1–2	0.85	2.03	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans

+28

3.00

WWWWW

-0.05

+0.01

100%

1.1

W	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Rodriguez (7th)	6–0
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Sting WTX Pre- Albarado (3rd)	5–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Albion SC Dallas Pre (8th)	8–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN (2nd)	5–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	SOLAR PRE- TREMBLAY (9th)	5–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Central Mata · Sun Oct 25 vs Atletico Dallas Youth Pre Hernandez · Sat Oct 31 at SOLAR PRE- MARTINEZ See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Central Mata (10th)	7–0	99%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre Hernandez (5th)	5–1	89%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	SOLAR PRE- MARTINEZ (4th)	2–1	58%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN

+29

2.50

WLWWW

-0.49

-0.23

100%

2.4

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Sting Pre- Workman (6th)	4–2
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	SOLAR PRE- TREMBLAY (9th)	9–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Sting Pre- Soderholm (11th)	7–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans (1st)	1–5
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre Hernandez (5th)	9–2
W	Sat Sep 12	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Central Mata (10th)	10–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at SOLAR PRE- MARTINEZ · Sat Nov 7 vs Albion SC Dallas Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	SOLAR PRE- MARTINEZ (4th)	2–2	42%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Albion SC Dallas Pre (8th)	6–1	97%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting WTX Pre- Albarado

+16

2.38

WWDLW

-0.60

—

100%

2.7

SOLAR PRE- MARTINEZ

+13

2.33

WDWWW

-0.37

+3.21

87%

4.0

W	Sun Oct 18	at	SOLAR PRE- TREMBLAY (9th)	3–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Central Mata (10th)	6–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Rodriguez (7th)	4–1
D	Sun Sep 27	at	Sting WTX Pre- Albarado (3rd)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre Hernandez (5th)	2–1
D	Sun Sep 13	at	Sting Pre- Workman (6th)	0–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN (2nd)	2–2	39%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans (1st)	1–2	22%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Atletico Dallas Youth Pre Hernandez

1.50

LLWLW

-0.48

+1.05

5.8

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Sting Pre- Soderholm (11th)	13–0
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Sting Pre- Workman (6th)	1–4
W	Sun Sep 27	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Central Mata (10th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 26	at	SOLAR PRE- MARTINEZ (4th)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN (2nd)	2–9
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Rodriguez (7th)	5–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs SOLAR PRE- TREMBLAY · Sun Oct 25 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	SOLAR PRE- TREMBLAY (9th)	4–1	81%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans (1st)	1–5	5%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting Pre- Workman

1.33

DWDWL

+0.18

-1.46

12%

5.3

L	Sun Oct 18	at	SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN (2nd)	2–4
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre Hernandez (5th)	4–1
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	SOLAR PRE- TREMBLAY (9th)	3–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Sting Pre- Soderholm (11th)	9–2
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	SOLAR PRE- MARTINEZ (4th)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Sting WTX Pre- Albarado (3rd)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Albion SC Dallas Pre · Sun Nov 1 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Rodriguez See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Albion SC Dallas Pre (8th)	4–1	85%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Rodriguez (7th)	3–1	66%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Dallas Youth Pre- Rodriguez

-11

1.00

WLLWL

+0.52

-1.73

6.9

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans (1st)	0–6
W	Sat Oct 10	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Central Mata (10th)	4–2
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	SOLAR PRE- MARTINEZ (4th)	1–4
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Sting WTX Pre- Albarado (3rd)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Albion SC Dallas Pre (8th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre Hernandez (5th)	1–5

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Sting Pre- Soderholm · Sun Nov 1 vs Sting Pre- Workman See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Sting Pre- Soderholm (11th)	4–1	86%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Sting Pre- Workman (6th)	1–3	19%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Albion SC Dallas Pre

-14

0.80

LLDLW

-0.64

+0.79

8.9

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Sting Pre- Soderholm (11th)	2–0
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans (1st)	0–8
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Central Mata (10th)	3–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Rodriguez (7th)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Sting WTX Pre- Albarado (3rd)	0–7

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sting Pre- Workman · Sat Oct 31 at SOLAR PRE- TREMBLAY · Sat Nov 7 at SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Sting Pre- Workman (6th)	1–4	6%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	SOLAR PRE- TREMBLAY (9th)	1–2	27%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN (2nd)	1–6	1%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SOLAR PRE- TREMBLAY

-15

0.67

LWDLL

+0.95

-0.54

8.2

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	SOLAR PRE- MARTINEZ (4th)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 17	at	SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN (2nd)	0–9
D	Sat Oct 3	at	Sting Pre- Workman (6th)	3–3
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Sting Pre- Soderholm (11th)	5–1
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Sting WTX Pre- Albarado (3rd)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans (1st)	0–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Atletico Dallas Youth Pre Hernandez · Sat Oct 31 vs Albion SC Dallas Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre Hernandez (5th)	1–4	9%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Albion SC Dallas Pre (8th)	2–1	55%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Dallas Youth Pre- Central Mata

-21

0.17

DLLLL

+0.55

-0.40

9.9

L	Sat Oct 17	at	SOLAR PRE- MARTINEZ (4th)	0–6
L	Sun Oct 11	at	Sting WTX Pre- Albarado (3rd)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Rodriguez (7th)	2–4
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre Hernandez (5th)	1–3
D	Sat Sep 26	at	Albion SC Dallas Pre (8th)	3–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN (2nd)	2–10

Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans · Sat Nov 7 vs Sting Pre- Soderholm See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans (1st)	0–7	0%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Sting Pre- Soderholm (11th)	4–1	77%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting Pre- Soderholm

-40

0.00

LLLLL

+0.39

-1.60

10.9

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre Hernandez (5th)	0–13
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Albion SC Dallas Pre (8th)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 3	at	SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN (2nd)	0–7
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Sting WTX Pre- Albarado (3rd)	0–7
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	SOLAR PRE- TREMBLAY (9th)	1–5
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Sting Pre- Workman (6th)	2–9

Next: Sat Oct 31 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Rodriguez · Sat Nov 7 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Central Mata See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Rodriguez (7th)	1–4	6%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Central Mata (10th)	1–4	12%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.82 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.