FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- North Texas BU10 · 11 teams · FC Dallas Youth (all teams)

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1st

5-0-0 record · 5 played

3.00 points per game

+28 goal diff · 29–1

WWWWWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.1

-0.05 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:30 PM

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FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans
1st · 3.00 PPG

FC Dallas Youth Pre- Central Mata
10th · 0.17 PPG

Fairview Soccer Park , Field 6A ↗

99%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 7–0 (expected goals 7.3 for, 0.8 against · 2.97 expected points)

Season so far	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Central Mata
Position	1st	10th
Record (W-D-L)	5-0-0	0-1-5
Points per game	3.00	0.17
Goals for / game	5.8	1.3
Goals against / game	0.2	4.8
Clean sheets	4	0
Held scoreless	0	2
Form (recent first)	W W W W W	L L L L D
Biggest win	8–0 at Albion SC Dallas Pre	—
Worst loss	—	2–10 vs SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+3.48	-2.16
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.05	+0.55

Common opponents: SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN — we 5–1; they 2–10. Albion SC Dallas Pre — we 8–0; they 3–3. Sting WTX Pre- Albarado — we 5–0; they 0–3. FC Dallas Youth Pre- Rodriguez — we 6–0; they 2–4.

Game plan

They struggle to score
FC Dallas Youth Pre- Central Mata average 1.3 goals/game (league avg 2.8); blanked in 2 of 6.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
They leak goals — be greedy
FC Dallas Youth Pre- Central Mata concede 4.8/game; worst result 2–10 vs SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 99% chance; likely score 7–0.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Confidence is low on their side
FC Dallas Youth Pre- Central Mata have lost 4 straight (form: DLLLL).
Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Dallas Youth Pre- Central Mata game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans – FC Dallas Youth Pre- Central Mata) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 3.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 3.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.67 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Loss 2.50 PPG	2nd▼ down 1	1st— holds	2nd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 7–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

91% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.1 average finish

1st 91%
2nd 8%
3rd 1%
4th <1%
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th
11th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

17 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans to FC Dallas Youth Pre- Central Mata through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

17 favour us

0 favour them

+8.2 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.01 · 4th hardest of 10

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 12:30 PM	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Central Mata 10th · 0-1-5 · GD -21	Home Fairview Soccer Park	●○○○○ Favorable	99%	7–0	2.97	3.00	Bank it
Sun Oct 25 08:00 AM	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre Hernandez 5th · 3-0-3 · GD +8	Home Dallas Soccer Park	●○○○○ Favorable	89%	5–1	2.74	2.96	Bank it
Sat Oct 31 09:30 AM	SOLAR PRE- MARTINEZ 4th · 4-2-0 · GD +13	Away Fairview Soccer Park	●●○○○ Lean win	58%	2–1	1.95	2.83	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans

+28

3.00

WWWWW

-0.05

+0.01

100%

1.1

W	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Rodriguez (7th)	6–0
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Sting WTX Pre- Albarado (3rd)	5–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Albion SC Dallas Pre (8th)	8–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN (2nd)	5–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	SOLAR PRE- TREMBLAY (9th)	5–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Central Mata · Sun Oct 25 vs Atletico Dallas Youth Pre Hernandez · Sat Oct 31 at SOLAR PRE- MARTINEZ See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Central Mata (10th)	7–0	99%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre Hernandez (5th)	5–1	89%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	SOLAR PRE- MARTINEZ (4th)	2–1	58%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN

+29

2.50

WLWWW

-0.49

-0.23

100%

2.4

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Sting Pre- Workman (6th)	4–2
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	SOLAR PRE- TREMBLAY (9th)	9–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Sting Pre- Soderholm (11th)	7–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans (1st)	1–5
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre Hernandez (5th)	9–2
W	Sat Sep 12	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Central Mata (10th)	10–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at SOLAR PRE- MARTINEZ · Sat Nov 7 vs Albion SC Dallas Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	SOLAR PRE- MARTINEZ (4th)	2–2	42%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Albion SC Dallas Pre (8th)	6–1	97%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting WTX Pre- Albarado

+16

2.38

WWDLW

-0.60

—

100%

2.7

SOLAR PRE- MARTINEZ

+13

2.33

WDWWW

-0.37

+3.21

86%

3.9

W	Sun Oct 18	at	SOLAR PRE- TREMBLAY (9th)	3–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Central Mata (10th)	6–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Rodriguez (7th)	4–1
D	Sun Sep 27	at	Sting WTX Pre- Albarado (3rd)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre Hernandez (5th)	2–1
D	Sun Sep 13	at	Sting Pre- Workman (6th)	0–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN (2nd)	2–2	39%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans (1st)	1–2	22%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Atletico Dallas Youth Pre Hernandez

1.50

LLWLW

-0.48

+1.05

5.8

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Sting Pre- Soderholm (11th)	13–0
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Sting Pre- Workman (6th)	1–4
W	Sun Sep 27	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Central Mata (10th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 26	at	SOLAR PRE- MARTINEZ (4th)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN (2nd)	2–9
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Rodriguez (7th)	5–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs SOLAR PRE- TREMBLAY · Sun Oct 25 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	SOLAR PRE- TREMBLAY (9th)	4–1	81%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans (1st)	1–5	5%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting Pre- Workman

1.33

DWDWL

+0.18

-1.46

13%

5.4

L	Sun Oct 18	at	SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN (2nd)	2–4
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre Hernandez (5th)	4–1
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	SOLAR PRE- TREMBLAY (9th)	3–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Sting Pre- Soderholm (11th)	9–2
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	SOLAR PRE- MARTINEZ (4th)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Sting WTX Pre- Albarado (3rd)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Albion SC Dallas Pre · Sun Nov 1 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Rodriguez See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Albion SC Dallas Pre (8th)	4–1	85%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Rodriguez (7th)	3–1	66%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Dallas Youth Pre- Rodriguez

-11

1.00

WLLWL

+0.52

-1.73

6.9

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans (1st)	0–6
W	Sat Oct 10	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Central Mata (10th)	4–2
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	SOLAR PRE- MARTINEZ (4th)	1–4
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Sting WTX Pre- Albarado (3rd)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Albion SC Dallas Pre (8th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre Hernandez (5th)	1–5

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Sting Pre- Soderholm · Sun Nov 1 vs Sting Pre- Workman See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Sting Pre- Soderholm (11th)	4–1	86%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Sting Pre- Workman (6th)	1–3	19%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Albion SC Dallas Pre

-14

0.80

LLDLW

-0.64

+0.79

8.9

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Sting Pre- Soderholm (11th)	2–0
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans (1st)	0–8
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Central Mata (10th)	3–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Rodriguez (7th)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Sting WTX Pre- Albarado (3rd)	0–7

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sting Pre- Workman · Sat Oct 31 at SOLAR PRE- TREMBLAY · Sat Nov 7 at SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Sting Pre- Workman (6th)	1–4	6%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	SOLAR PRE- TREMBLAY (9th)	1–2	27%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN (2nd)	1–6	1%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SOLAR PRE- TREMBLAY

-15

0.67

LWDLL

+0.95

-0.54

8.2

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	SOLAR PRE- MARTINEZ (4th)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 17	at	SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN (2nd)	0–9
D	Sat Oct 3	at	Sting Pre- Workman (6th)	3–3
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Sting Pre- Soderholm (11th)	5–1
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Sting WTX Pre- Albarado (3rd)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans (1st)	0–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Atletico Dallas Youth Pre Hernandez · Sat Oct 31 vs Albion SC Dallas Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre Hernandez (5th)	1–4	9%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Albion SC Dallas Pre (8th)	2–1	55%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Dallas Youth Pre- Central Mata

-21

0.17

DLLLL

+0.55

-0.40

9.8

L	Sat Oct 17	at	SOLAR PRE- MARTINEZ (4th)	0–6
L	Sun Oct 11	at	Sting WTX Pre- Albarado (3rd)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Rodriguez (7th)	2–4
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre Hernandez (5th)	1–3
D	Sat Sep 26	at	Albion SC Dallas Pre (8th)	3–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN (2nd)	2–10

Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans · Sat Nov 7 vs Sting Pre- Soderholm See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans (1st)	0–7	0%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Sting Pre- Soderholm (11th)	4–1	77%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting Pre- Soderholm

-40

0.00

LLLLL

+0.39

-1.60

10.9

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre Hernandez (5th)	0–13
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Albion SC Dallas Pre (8th)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 3	at	SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN (2nd)	0–7
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Sting WTX Pre- Albarado (3rd)	0–7
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	SOLAR PRE- TREMBLAY (9th)	1–5
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Sting Pre- Workman (6th)	2–9

Next: Sat Oct 31 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Rodriguez · Sat Nov 7 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Central Mata See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Rodriguez (7th)	1–4	6%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Central Mata (10th)	1–4	12%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.82 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.