Sting Pre- Ortiz

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- North Texas BU10 · 10 teams · Sting Soccer Club (all teams)

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4th

4-0-3 record · 7 played

1.71 points per game

+15 goal diff · 29–14

LLLWWlast 5

13% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.4

-0.65 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 11:00 AM

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Sting Pre- Ortiz
4th · 1.71 PPG

Dallas Texans Pre- Garcia
1st · 3.00 PPG

Fairview Soccer Park , Field 4B ↗

7% 9% 84%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.2 for, 3.9 against · 0.29 expected points)

Season so far	Sting Pre- Ortiz	Dallas Texans Pre- Garcia
Position	4th	1st
Record (W-D-L)	4-0-3	6-0-0
Points per game	1.71	3.00
Goals for / game	4.1	5.5
Goals against / game	2.0	0.0
Clean sheets	1	6
Held scoreless	1	0
Form (recent first)	W W L L L	W W W W W
Biggest win	13–1 vs Nido Dallas Pre - Campos	17–0 at Nido Dallas Pre - Campos
Worst loss	0–4 vs Nido Dallas Pre - Cavazos	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.25	+3.45
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.65	-0.74

Common opponents: Dallas Texans Pre- Sanchez — we 7–1; they 8–0. Nido Dallas Pre - Cavazos — we 0–4; they 2–0. DKSC Pre- Guerrero — we 2–3; they 1–0. Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor — we 1–3; they 3–0. Nido Dallas Pre - Campos — we 13–1; they 17–0.

Game plan

Respect their attack
Dallas Texans Pre- Garcia score 5.5/game — well above the league's 2.7.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Hard to break down
Dallas Texans Pre- Garcia concede only 0.0/game with 6 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–4 vs Nido Dallas Pre - Cavazos.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 7%; a draw (9%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
They arrive in form
Dallas Texans Pre- Garcia have won 6 straight.
Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
Away game
Kickoff 11:00 AM at Fairview Soccer Park .
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
DKSC Pre- Guerrero sit 3rd on 1.80 PPG; we are on 1.71.
A point moves us above DKSC Pre- Guerrero on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Dallas Texans Pre- Garcia game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Sting Pre- Ortiz – Dallas Texans Pre- Garcia) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 1.50 PPG	5th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 1	6th▼ down 2
Win 1.88 PPG	3rd▲ up 1	3rd▲ up 1	4th— holds
Draw 1.63 PPG	5th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 1	6th▼ down 2
Loss 1.50 PPG	5th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 1	6th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–3 loss we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

13% top 4

87% below the top 4

5.4 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd 1%
4th 12%
5th 30%
6th 58%
7th
8th
9th
10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 1 remaining known games (max 1.88 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Dallas Texans Pre- Garcia	3.00 (+1.29)	1st (2.89)	12 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor	2.50 (+0.79)	2nd (2.48)	8 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	DKSC Pre- Guerrero	1.80 (+0.09)	3rd (1.89)	A point next game

How the results connect

26 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Sting Pre- Ortiz to Dallas Texans Pre- Garcia through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

7 favour us

2 even

17 favour them

-3.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +3.45 · 1st hardest of 10

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 31 11:00 AM	Dallas Texans Pre- Garcia 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +33	Away Fairview Soccer Park	●●●●● Very tough	7%	1–3	0.29	1.54	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Dallas Texans Pre- Garcia

+33

3.00

WWWWW

-0.74

+1.09

100%

1.0

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	DKSC Pre- Guerrero (3rd)	1–0
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Sanchez (8th)	8–0
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Nido Dallas Pre - Campos (10th)	17–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black (7th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor (2nd)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Nido Dallas Pre - Cavazos (5th)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at SOLAR PRE- PAEZ · Sat Oct 31 vs Sting Pre- Ortiz See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	SOLAR PRE- PAEZ (6th)	3–1	78%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Sting Pre- Ortiz (4th)	3–1	84%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor

+14

2.50

LWWWW

-0.06

-1.07

100%

2.0

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Nido Dallas Pre - Campos (10th)	3–0
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Sting Pre- Ortiz (4th)	3–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Nido Dallas Pre - Cavazos (5th)	6–2
W	Sat Sep 26	at	FC Dallas North Academy (9th)	7–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Garcia (1st)	0–3
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	SOLAR PRE- PAEZ (6th)	4–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black · Sat Oct 31 at Dallas Texans Pre- Sanchez See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black (7th)	2–1	68%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Sanchez (8th)	4–1	86%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

DKSC Pre- Guerrero

1.80

LWWWL

+0.78

-1.77

74%

4.0

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Garcia (1st)	0–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Sting Pre- Ortiz (4th)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Sanchez (8th)	4–3
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black (7th)	1–0
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	SOLAR PRE- PAEZ (6th)	2–3

Next: Mon Jan 1 at Nido Dallas Pre - Campos · Sat Oct 24 vs FC Dallas North Academy · Sat Oct 31 at Nido Dallas Pre - Cavazos See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	at	Nido Dallas Pre - Campos (10th)	5–1	93%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Dallas North Academy (9th)	3–1	74%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Nido Dallas Pre - Cavazos (5th)	1–2	24%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting Pre- Ortiz

+15

1.71

LLLWW

-0.65

+3.45

13%

5.4

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Nido Dallas Pre - Campos (10th)	13–1
W	Sat Oct 17	at	SOLAR PRE- PAEZ (6th)	2–0
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor (2nd)	1–3
L	Sat Oct 3	at	DKSC Pre- Guerrero (3rd)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Nido Dallas Pre - Cavazos (5th)	0–4
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Sanchez (8th)	7–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	FC Dallas North Academy (9th)	4–2

Next: Sat Oct 31 at Dallas Texans Pre- Garcia See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Garcia (1st)	1–3	7%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Nido Dallas Pre - Cavazos

+11

1.67

WWLWD

-0.15

-0.80

81%

3.7

D	Sat Oct 17	at	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black (7th)	1–1
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Nido Dallas Pre - Campos (10th)	9–1
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor (2nd)	2–6
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Sting Pre- Ortiz (4th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Dallas North Academy (9th)	6–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Garcia (1st)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Dallas Texans Pre- Sanchez · Sat Oct 31 vs DKSC Pre- Guerrero See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Sanchez (8th)	5–1	89%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	DKSC Pre- Guerrero (3rd)	2–1	58%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SOLAR PRE- PAEZ

1.40

LWDWL

+0.17

-1.00

33%

4.9

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Sting Pre- Ortiz (4th)	0–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Sanchez (8th)	9–0
D	Sat Sep 26	at	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black (7th)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	DKSC Pre- Guerrero (3rd)	3–2
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor (2nd)	3–4

Next: Mon Jan 1 vs Nido Dallas Pre - Campos · Sat Oct 24 vs Dallas Texans Pre- Garcia · Sat Oct 31 at FC Dallas North Academy See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	vs	Nido Dallas Pre - Campos (10th)	7–1	98%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Garcia (1st)	1–3	10%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	FC Dallas North Academy (9th)	4–1	75%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black

-2

1.14

DLWDW

-0.40

+1.50

7.1

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Nido Dallas Pre - Campos (10th)	2–0
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	Nido Dallas Pre - Cavazos (5th)	1–1
W	Sat Oct 10	at	FC Dallas North Academy (9th)	3–1
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Garcia (1st)	0–2
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	SOLAR PRE- PAEZ (6th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	DKSC Pre- Guerrero (3rd)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Sanchez (8th)	1–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor (2nd)	1–2	14%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Dallas Texans Pre- Sanchez

-19

1.00

LLLLW

+0.68

+1.32

8.1

W	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Dallas North Academy (9th)	3–1
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Garcia (1st)	0–8
L	Sat Oct 3	at	SOLAR PRE- PAEZ (6th)	0–9
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	DKSC Pre- Guerrero (3rd)	3–4
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Sting Pre- Ortiz (4th)	1–7
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black (7th)	4–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Nido Dallas Pre - Cavazos · Sat Oct 31 vs Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Nido Dallas Pre - Cavazos (5th)	1–5	5%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor (2nd)	1–4	7%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Dallas North Academy

-13

0.50

LLWLL

-0.61

+0.61

8.8

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Sanchez (8th)	1–3
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black (7th)	1–3
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Nido Dallas Pre - Campos (10th)	7–2
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor (2nd)	0–7
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Nido Dallas Pre - Cavazos (5th)	1–6
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Sting Pre- Ortiz (4th)	2–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at DKSC Pre- Guerrero · Sat Oct 31 vs SOLAR PRE- PAEZ See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	DKSC Pre- Guerrero (3rd)	1–3	13%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	SOLAR PRE- PAEZ (6th)	1–4	13%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Nido Dallas Pre - Campos

-47

0.00

LLLLL

+0.92

+0.61

10.0

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black (7th)	0–2
L	Sun Oct 18	at	Sting Pre- Ortiz (4th)	1–13
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor (2nd)	0–3
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Garcia (1st)	0–17
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Nido Dallas Pre - Cavazos (5th)	1–9
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC Dallas North Academy (9th)	2–7

Next: Mon Jan 1 at SOLAR PRE- PAEZ · Mon Jan 1 vs DKSC Pre- Guerrero See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	at	SOLAR PRE- PAEZ (6th)	1–7	1%
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	vs	DKSC Pre- Guerrero (3rd)	1–5	3%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.73 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.