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DKSC Pre- Guerrero

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- North Texas BU10 · 10 teams · DKSC (all teams)

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3rd
3-0-2 record · 5 played
1.80 points per game
+1 goal diff · 10–9
LWWWLlast 5
77% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.9
+0.78 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:30 AM

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DKSC Pre- Guerrero
3rd · 1.80 PPG
vs
FC Dallas North Academy
9th · 0.50 PPG

Fairview Soccer Park , Field 6B ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.5 for, 1.6 against · 2.35 expected points)

Season so farDKSC Pre- GuerreroFC Dallas North Academy
Position3rd9th
Record (W-D-L)3-0-21-0-5
Points per game1.800.50
Goals for / game2.02.0
Goals against / game1.84.2
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)L W W W LL L W L L
Biggest win1–0 vs Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black7–2 at Nido Dallas Pre - Campos
Worst loss2–3 vs SOLAR PRE- PAEZ0–7 vs Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.30-1.57
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.78-0.61

Common opponents: Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black — we 1–0; they 1–3. Dallas Texans Pre- Sanchez — we 4–3; they 1–3. Sting Pre- Ortiz — we 3–2; they 2–4.

Game plan

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    FC Dallas North Academy concede 4.2/game; worst result 0–7 vs Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 at Dallas Texans Pre- Garcia.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 74% chance; likely score 3–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:30 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Dallas North Academy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (DKSC Pre- Guerrero – FC Dallas North Academy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.00 PPG		 3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Win
2.00 PPG		 3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Draw
1.67 PPG		 5th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 3
Loss
1.50 PPG		 5th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–1 win we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
77% top 4
23% below the top 4
3.9 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd 1%
  3. 3rd 39%
  4. 4th 37%
  5. 5th 15%
  6. 6th 8%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 2.25 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Dallas Texans Pre- Garcia 3.00 (+1.20) 1st (2.89) 15 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor 2.50 (+0.70) 2nd (2.48) 11 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule

How the results connect

21 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link DKSC Pre- Guerrero to FC Dallas North Academy through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

17 favour us
1 even
3 favour them
+4.5 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–2 4–2 4–3 3–1 1–0 3–1 1–4 2–3 1–1 0–2 0–4 6–1 2–0 2–7 0–1 2–0 1–7 3–4 7–0 2–0 DKSC Pre- Guerrero 3rd Sting Pre- Ortiz 4th Dallas Texans Pre- … 8th Dallas Cosmos SC Pr… 7th SOLAR PRE- PAEZ 6th Dallas Texans Pre- … 1st Nido Dallas Pre - C… 5th Nido Dallas Pre - C… 10th Atlético Dallas You… 2nd FC Dallas North Aca… 9th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

1st 5th 10th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 3 Oct 10 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -1.77 · 10th hardest of 10

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Mon Jan 1
TBD
no score posted		 Nido Dallas Pre - Campos
10th · 0-0-6 · GD -47		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
93%		 5–1 2.82 1.97 Bank it
Sat Oct 24
09:30 AM		 FC Dallas North Academy
9th · 1-0-5 · GD -13		 Home
Fairview Soccer Park 		●●○○○ Lean win
74%		 3–1 2.35 2.02 Bank it
Sat Oct 31
11:00 AM		 Nido Dallas Pre - Cavazos
5th · 3-1-2 · GD +11		 Away
Fairview Soccer Park 		●●●●● Very tough
24%		 1–2 0.91 1.89 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Dallas Texans Pre- Garcia 6600 330+33 183.00 WWWWW -0.74 +1.09 100% 1.0
2 Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor 6501 239+14 152.50 LWWWW -0.06 -1.07 100% 2.0
3 DKSC Pre- Guerrero 5302 109+1 91.80 LWWWL +0.78 -1.77 77% 3.9
4 Sting Pre- Ortiz 7403 2914+15 121.71 LLLWW -0.65 +3.45 11% 5.5
5 Nido Dallas Pre - Cavazos 6312 2211+11 101.67 WWLWD -0.15 -0.80 80% 3.7
6 SOLAR PRE- PAEZ 5212 169+7 71.40 LWDWL +0.17 -1.00 32% 4.9
7 Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black 7223 810-2 81.14 DLWDW -0.40 +1.50 0% 7.1
8 Dallas Texans Pre- Sanchez 6204 1130-19 61.00 LLLLW +0.68 +1.32 0% 8.1
9 FC Dallas North Academy 6105 1225-13 30.50 LLWLL -0.61 +0.61 0% 8.8
10 Nido Dallas Pre - Campos 6006 451-47 00.00 LLLLL +0.92 +0.61 0% 10.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.73 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.