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Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- North Texas BU10 · 10 teams · Atletico Dallas Youth (all teams)

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2nd
6-0-1 record · 7 played
2.57 points per game
+17 goal diff · 27–10
WWWWWlast 5
100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.8
-0.15 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 11:00 AM

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Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor
2nd · 2.57 PPG
at

Fairview Soccer Park , Field 6B ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 5–1 (expected goals 5.1 for, 1.7 against · 2.69 expected points)

Season so farAtlético Dallas Youth Pre- ChallinorDallas Texans Pre- Sanchez
Position2nd8th
Record (W-D-L)6-0-12-0-4
Points per game2.571.00
Goals for / game3.91.8
Goals against / game1.45.0
Clean sheets20
Held scoreless12
Form (recent first)W W W W WW L L L L
Biggest win7–0 at FC Dallas North Academy4–1 at Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black
Worst loss0–3 vs Dallas Texans Pre- Garcia0–9 at SOLAR PRE- PAEZ
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.65-1.90
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.15+0.62

Common opponents: SOLAR PRE- PAEZ — we 4–3; they 0–9. Dallas Texans Pre- Garcia — we 0–3; they 0–8. FC Dallas North Academy — we 7–0; they 3–1. Sting Pre- Ortiz — we 3–1; they 1–7. Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black — we 4–1; they 4–1.

Game plan

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Dallas Texans Pre- Sanchez concede 5.0/game; worst result 0–9 at SOLAR PRE- PAEZ.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 vs Dallas Texans Pre- Garcia.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 87% chance; likely score 5–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 11:00 AM at Fairview Soccer Park .

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Dallas Texans Pre- Sanchez game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor – Dallas Texans Pre- Sanchez) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.63 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Win
2.63 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Draw
2.38 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Loss
2.25 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 5–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

16% finish 1st
100% top 4
0% below the top 4
1.8 average finish
  1. 1st 16%
  2. 2nd 84%
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 1 remaining known games (max 2.63 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Dallas Texans Pre- Garcia 2.71 (+0.14) 1st (2.70) 4 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 4 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule

How the results connect

30 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor to Dallas Texans Pre- Sanchez through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

22 favour us
1 even
7 favour them
+4.1 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
4–1 1–4 7–0 1–3 0–3 8–0 3–1 7–1 4–3 9–0 6–2 1–1 1–0 4–3 3–0 0–2 4–2 2–3 1–3 1–1 Atlético Dallas You… 2nd Dallas Cosmos SC Pr… 7th FC Dallas North Aca… 9th Dallas Texans Pre- … 1st Sting Pre- Ortiz 4th SOLAR PRE- PAEZ 6th Nido Dallas Pre - C… 5th Nido Dallas Pre - C… 10th DKSC Pre- Guerrero 3rd Dallas Texans Pre- … 8th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 5th 10th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 3 Oct 10 Oct 18 Oct 24

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -1.90 · 8th hardest of 9

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 31
11:00 AM
Dallas Texans Pre- Sanchez
8th · 2-0-4 · GD -19
Away
Fairview Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
87%
5–1 2.69 2.59 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Dallas Texans Pre- Garcia 7610 341+33 192.71 WWWWD -0.47 +1.26 100% 1.2
2 Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor 7601 2710+17 182.57 WWWWW -0.15 -1.90 100% 1.8
3 DKSC Pre- Guerrero 6402 1310+3 122.00 WWWLW +0.25 -1.86 92% 3.6
4 Sting Pre- Ortiz 7403 2914+15 121.71 LLLWW -0.60 +3.15 10% 5.6
5 Nido Dallas Pre - Cavazos 6312 2211+11 101.67 WWLWD -0.20 -0.76 65% 3.9
6 SOLAR PRE- PAEZ 6222 1710+7 81.33 WDWLD +0.74 -3.21 33% 4.9
7 Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black 8224 914-5 81.00 LWDWL -0.14 — 0% 7.1
8 Dallas Texans Pre- Sanchez 6204 1130-19 61.00 LLLLW +0.62 +1.39 0% 8.0
9 FC Dallas North Academy 7106 1328-15 30.43 LWLLL -0.46 +0.96 0% 8.9
10 Nido Dallas Pre - Campos 6006 451-47 00.00 LLLLL +0.86 +0.67 0% 10.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.69 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.